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Kansas' 1st Congressional District election, 2020

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2022
2018
Kansas' 1st Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: June 1, 2020
Primary: August 4, 2020
General: November 3, 2020

Pre-election incumbent:
Roger Marshall (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Kansas
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Kansas' 1st Congressional District
U.S. Senate1st2nd3rd4th
Kansas elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 1st Congressional District of Kansas, held elections in 2020.

Tracey Mann won election in the general election for U.S. House Kansas District 1.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
June 1, 2020
August 4, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican Roger Marshall, who was first elected in 2016.

Marshall ran for U.S. Senate rather than seeking re-election. Tracey Mann won the Republican primary against three other candidates with 54% of the vote. Kali Barnett won the Democratic primary against Christy Davis with 63%.

Kansas' 1st Congressional District encompasses 69 counties in western and central Kansas (more than half of the state), making it one of the largest congressional districts in the nation. Located within the district are Salina, Dodge City, Emporia, Garden City, Hays and Hutchinson.[1]

Republican Party For more on the Republican primary, click here.
Democratic Party For more on the Democratic primary, click here.

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Kansas' 1st Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 28.1 28.8
Republican candidate Republican Party 69.7 71.2
Difference 41.6 42.4

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Kansas did not modify any procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

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Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Kansas District 1

Tracey Mann defeated Kali Barnett and Michael Soetaert in the general election for U.S. House Kansas District 1 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Tracey Mann
Tracey Mann (R)
 
71.2
 
208,229
Image of Kali Barnett
Kali Barnett (D)
 
28.8
 
84,393
Image of Michael Soetaert
Michael Soetaert (R) (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
0

Total votes: 292,622
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Kansas District 1

Kali Barnett defeated Christy Davis in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Kansas District 1 on August 4, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Kali Barnett
Kali Barnett
 
62.6
 
16,671
Christy Davis
 
37.4
 
9,962

Total votes: 26,633
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Kansas District 1

Tracey Mann defeated Bill Clifford, Jerry Molstad, and Michael Soetaert in the Republican primary for U.S. House Kansas District 1 on August 4, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Tracey Mann
Tracey Mann
 
54.2
 
65,373
Image of Bill Clifford
Bill Clifford
 
33.1
 
39,914
Image of Jerry Molstad
Jerry Molstad
 
7.9
 
9,545
Image of Michael Soetaert
Michael Soetaert
 
4.8
 
5,756

Total votes: 120,588
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

There are no Pivot Counties in Kansas. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Kansas with 56.7 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 36.1 percent. In presidential elections between 1864 and 2016, Kansas voted Republican 84.21 percent of the time and Democratic 15.78 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Kansas voted Republican all five times.[2]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Kansas. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[3][4]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 29 out of 125 state House districts in Kansas with an average margin of victory of 21.8 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 34 out of 125 state House districts in Kansas with an average margin of victory of 20.9 points. Clinton won six districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 96 out of 125 state House districts in Kansas with an average margin of victory of 32.8 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 91 out of 125 state House districts in Kansas with an average margin of victory of 35.5 points. Trump won 11 districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+24, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 24 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Kansas' 1st Congressional District the 19th most Republican nationally.[5]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.88. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.88 points toward that party.[6]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[7] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[8] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Kali Barnett Democratic Party $606,922 $596,811 $10,112 As of December 31, 2020
Tracey Mann Republican Party $1,558,493 $1,282,296 $276,197 As of December 31, 2020
Michael Soetaert Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[9]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[10][11][12]

Race ratings: Kansas' 1st Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

District election history

2018

See also: Kansas' 1st Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Kansas District 1

Incumbent Roger Marshall defeated Alan LaPolice in the general election for U.S. House Kansas District 1 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Roger Marshall
Roger Marshall (R)
 
68.1
 
153,082
Image of Alan LaPolice
Alan LaPolice (D)
 
31.9
 
71,558

Total votes: 224,640
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Kansas District 1

Alan LaPolice advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Kansas District 1 on August 7, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Alan LaPolice
Alan LaPolice
 
100.0
 
17,195

Total votes: 17,195
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Kansas District 1

Incumbent Roger Marshall defeated Nick Reinecker in the Republican primary for U.S. House Kansas District 1 on August 7, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Roger Marshall
Roger Marshall
 
78.7
 
64,843
Nick Reinecker
 
21.3
 
17,593

Total votes: 82,436
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

2016

See also: Kansas' 1st Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Roger Marshall (R) defeated Alan LaPolice (I) and Kerry Burt (L) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Marshall defeated incumbent Tim Huelskamp in the Republican primary on August 2, 2016. No Democrats filed to run.[13][14]

U.S. House, Kansas District 1 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngRoger Marshall 65.9% 169,992
     Independent Alan LaPolice 26.3% 67,739
     Libertarian Kerry Burt 7.5% 19,366
     N/A Write-in 0.3% 874
Total Votes 257,971
Source: Kansas Secretary of State


U.S. House, Kansas District 1 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngRoger Marshall 56.6% 59,889
Tim Huelskamp Incumbent 43.4% 45,997
Total Votes 105,886
Source: Kansas Secretary of State

2014

See also: Kansas' 1st Congressional District elections, 2014

The 1st Congressional District of Kansas held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Tim Huelskamp (R) defeated James Sherow (D) in the general election.

U.S. House, Kansas District 1 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngTim Huelskamp Incumbent 68% 138,764
     Democratic Jim Sherow 33% 65,397
Total Votes 204,161
Source: Kansas Secretary of State Official Results

See also

External links

Footnotes


Senators
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
Ron Estes (R)
Republican Party (5)
Democratic Party (1)