Kansas' 4th Congressional District election, 2020
- Election date: Nov. 3
- Registration deadline(s): Oct. 13
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: No
- Recount laws
- Early voting starts: Oct. 14
- Absentee/mail voting deadline(s): Nov. 3 (postmarked); Nov. 6 (received)
- Processing, counting, and challenging absentee/mail-in ballots
- Voter ID: Photo ID
- Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
2022 →
← 2018
|
| Kansas' 4th Congressional District |
|---|
 |
| Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
| Election details |
| Filing deadline: June 1, 2020 |
| Primary: August 4, 2020 General: November 3, 2020 Pre-election incumbent: Ron Estes (Republican) |
| How to vote |
| Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Voting in Kansas |
| Race ratings |
Inside Elections: Solid Republican Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican |
| Ballotpedia analysis |
| U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020 |
| See also |
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th Kansas elections, 2020 U.S. Congress elections, 2020 U.S. Senate elections, 2020 U.S. House elections, 2020 |
All U.S. congressional districts, including the 4th Congressional District of Kansas, held elections in 2020.
Incumbent Ron Estes won election in the general election for U.S. House Kansas District 4.
| Candidate filing deadline | Primary election | General election |
|---|---|---|
Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican Ron Estes, who was first elected in 2017.
Kansas' 4th Congressional District is located in southern Kansas and includes Barber, Butler, Chautauqua, Comanche, Cowley, Edwards, Elk, Greenwood, Harper, Harvey, Kingman, Kiowa, Pratt, Sedgwick, Stafford, and Sumner counties as well as a portion of Pawnee County. The largest city in the district is Wichita.[1]
Post-election analysis
The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.
| Presidential and congressional election results, Kansas' 4th Congressional District, 2020 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Race | Presidential | U.S. House |
Democratic candidate  |
38 | 36.3 |
Republican candidate  |
59.7 | 63.7 |
| Difference | 21.7 | 27.4 |
Election procedure changes in 2020
Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.
Kansas did not modify any procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election.
For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.
Candidates and election results
General election
General election for U.S. House Kansas District 4
Incumbent Ron Estes defeated Laura Lombard in the general election for U.S. House Kansas District 4 on November 3, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ |  | Ron Estes (R) | 63.7 | 203,432 |
 | Laura Lombard (D) | 36.3 | 116,166 | |
| Total votes: 319,598 | |||
 = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House Kansas District 4
Laura Lombard advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Kansas District 4 on August 4, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Laura Lombard | 100.0 | 35,437 |
| Total votes: 35,437 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Kansas District 4
Incumbent Ron Estes advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Kansas District 4 on August 4, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Ron Estes | 100.0 | 87,877 |
| Total votes: 87,877 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Pivot Counties
- See also: Pivot Counties by state
There are no Pivot Counties in Kansas. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Kansas with 56.7 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 36.1 percent. In presidential elections between 1864 and 2016, Kansas voted Republican 84.21 percent of the time and Democratic 15.78 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Kansas voted Republican all five times.[2]
Presidential results by legislative district
The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Kansas. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[3][4]
| In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 29 out of 125 state House districts in Kansas with an average margin of victory of 21.8 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 34 out of 125 state House districts in Kansas with an average margin of victory of 20.9 points. Clinton won six districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections. |
| In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 96 out of 125 state House districts in Kansas with an average margin of victory of 32.8 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 91 out of 125 state House districts in Kansas with an average margin of victory of 35.5 points. Trump won 11 districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections. |
| 2016 presidential results by state House district | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Obama | Romney | 2012 Margin | Clinton | Trump | 2016 Margin | Party Control |
| 1 | 34.52% | 63.35% | R+28.8 | 23.35% | 71.63% | R+48.3 | R |
| 2 | 39.77% | 57.53% | R+17.8 | 27.77% | 66.50% | R+38.7 | D |
| 3 | 46.36% | 51.22% | R+4.9 | 38.05% | 54.82% | R+16.8 | D |
| 4 | 30.10% | 67.41% | R+37.3 | 20.25% | 74.79% | R+54.5 | R |
| 5 | 32.25% | 65.27% | R+33 | 23.45% | 69.48% | R+46 | R |
| 6 | 29.97% | 68.18% | R+38.2 | 26.18% | 67.84% | R+41.7 | R |
| 7 | 37.56% | 60.32% | R+22.8 | 27.74% | 66.71% | R+39 | R |
| 8 | 29.85% | 68.98% | R+39.1 | 39.07% | 55.47% | R+16.4 | R |
| 9 | 34.83% | 62.80% | R+28 | 26.84% | 66.79% | R+39.9 | R |
| 10 | 56.98% | 40.00% | D+17 | 56.46% | 35.14% | D+21.3 | D |
| 11 | 30.79% | 66.61% | R+35.8 | 24.48% | 70.05% | R+45.6 | R |
| 12 | 22.13% | 75.66% | R+53.5 | 16.45% | 78.95% | R+62.5 | R |
| 13 | 22.55% | 75.21% | R+52.7 | 16.51% | 77.88% | R+61.4 | R |
| 14 | 35.33% | 63.12% | R+27.8 | 40.81% | 52.23% | R+11.4 | R |
| 15 | 41.90% | 55.57% | R+13.7 | 42.04% | 48.78% | R+6.7 | R |
| 16 | 42.20% | 56.14% | R+13.9 | 47.32% | 45.91% | D+1.4 | D |
| 17 | 41.27% | 56.85% | R+15.6 | 47.24% | 45.90% | D+1.3 | R |
| 18 | 43.81% | 54.18% | R+10.4 | 45.07% | 47.41% | R+2.3 | D |
| 19 | 44.88% | 53.47% | R+8.6 | 53.76% | 39.96% | D+13.8 | R |
| 20 | 37.95% | 60.61% | R+22.7 | 48.15% | 46.37% | D+1.8 | R |
| 21 | 50.02% | 48.02% | D+2 | 57.77% | 35.71% | D+22.1 | D |
| 22 | 52.33% | 44.57% | D+7.8 | 52.46% | 38.89% | D+13.6 | D |
| 23 | 49.29% | 48.38% | D+0.9 | 51.80% | 40.42% | D+11.4 | R |
| 24 | 53.41% | 43.84% | D+9.6 | 54.71% | 37.19% | D+17.5 | D |
| 25 | 50.47% | 47.54% | D+2.9 | 59.32% | 33.38% | D+25.9 | R |
| 26 | 32.80% | 65.25% | R+32.4 | 33.61% | 58.71% | R+25.1 | R |
| 27 | 29.93% | 68.57% | R+38.6 | 36.38% | 57.73% | R+21.4 | R |
| 28 | 31.83% | 66.95% | R+35.1 | 42.47% | 52.42% | R+9.9 | R |
| 29 | 44.53% | 53.59% | R+9.1 | 49.08% | 44.00% | D+5.1 | D |
| 30 | 43.67% | 54.04% | R+10.4 | 47.90% | 44.60% | D+3.3 | R |
| 31 | 68.34% | 29.12% | D+39.2 | 64.49% | 28.46% | D+36 | D |
| 32 | 70.85% | 26.33% | D+44.5 | 69.13% | 24.93% | D+44.2 | D |
| 33 | 53.07% | 44.74% | D+8.3 | 46.77% | 46.81% | R+0 | D |
| 34 | 87.52% | 11.61% | D+75.9 | 82.15% | 14.18% | D+68 | D |
| 35 | 83.97% | 14.71% | D+69.3 | 79.07% | 17.21% | D+61.9 | D |
| 36 | 57.58% | 41.19% | D+16.4 | 54.32% | 40.28% | D+14 | D |
| 37 | 60.83% | 36.66% | D+24.2 | 53.70% | 39.94% | D+13.8 | D |
| 38 | 34.73% | 63.29% | R+28.6 | 30.42% | 63.22% | R+32.8 | R |
| 39 | 35.39% | 62.94% | R+27.5 | 39.04% | 53.11% | R+14.1 | R |
| 40 | 40.75% | 57.27% | R+16.5 | 38.32% | 53.56% | R+15.2 | D |
| 41 | 46.66% | 50.70% | R+4 | 39.81% | 50.78% | R+11 | D |
| 42 | 36.18% | 61.14% | R+25 | 31.04% | 61.02% | R+30 | R |
| 43 | 34.15% | 63.16% | R+29 | 31.41% | 59.98% | R+28.6 | R |
| 44 | 62.77% | 34.89% | D+27.9 | 67.49% | 25.53% | D+42 | D |
| 45 | 54.91% | 42.82% | D+12.1 | 59.16% | 33.32% | D+25.8 | R |
| 46 | 77.64% | 19.20% | D+58.4 | 76.44% | 14.71% | D+61.7 | D |
| 47 | 38.18% | 59.43% | R+21.3 | 31.44% | 61.94% | R+30.5 | R |
| 48 | 36.29% | 62.51% | R+26.2 | 45.15% | 48.99% | R+3.8 | R |
| 49 | 38.40% | 59.65% | R+21.3 | 42.61% | 49.98% | R+7.4 | R |
| 50 | 37.85% | 59.91% | R+22.1 | 32.39% | 60.99% | R+28.6 | R |
| 51 | 28.55% | 68.80% | R+40.3 | 24.87% | 67.57% | R+42.7 | R |
| 52 | 38.48% | 59.83% | R+21.4 | 41.24% | 52.33% | R+11.1 | R |
| 53 | 49.46% | 48.55% | D+0.9 | 48.48% | 44.69% | D+3.8 | D |
| 54 | 36.08% | 61.42% | R+25.3 | 31.53% | 61.19% | R+29.7 | R |
| 55 | 58.75% | 38.23% | D+20.5 | 56.22% | 35.86% | D+20.4 | D |
| 56 | 50.35% | 47.61% | D+2.7 | 47.52% | 45.37% | D+2.1 | D |
| 57 | 60.24% | 37.08% | D+23.2 | 52.56% | 40.10% | D+12.5 | D |
| 58 | 68.89% | 28.89% | D+40 | 62.81% | 30.95% | D+31.9 | D |
| 59 | 34.91% | 62.26% | R+27.3 | 27.17% | 65.34% | R+38.2 | R |
| 60 | 44.81% | 52.89% | R+8.1 | 41.23% | 50.34% | R+9.1 | R |
| 61 | 28.37% | 68.24% | R+39.9 | 21.25% | 72.95% | R+51.7 | R |
| 62 | 23.43% | 74.47% | R+51 | 17.38% | 77.05% | R+59.7 | R |
| 63 | 35.08% | 62.22% | R+27.1 | 26.76% | 66.59% | R+39.8 | R |
| 64 | 25.27% | 72.77% | R+47.5 | 20.43% | 73.29% | R+52.9 | R |
| 65 | 43.74% | 54.05% | R+10.3 | 34.93% | 58.47% | R+23.5 | R |
| 66 | 50.12% | 46.43% | D+3.7 | 51.05% | 38.79% | D+12.3 | D |
| 67 | 40.06% | 57.80% | R+17.7 | 42.63% | 49.20% | R+6.6 | R |
| 68 | 34.43% | 63.50% | R+29.1 | 29.68% | 63.68% | R+34 | R |
| 69 | 35.59% | 61.03% | R+25.4 | 30.21% | 60.42% | R+30.2 | R |
| 70 | 23.84% | 73.94% | R+50.1 | 19.14% | 74.53% | R+55.4 | R |
| 71 | 32.78% | 64.93% | R+32.1 | 30.30% | 61.66% | R+31.4 | R |
| 72 | 40.72% | 57.33% | R+16.6 | 36.99% | 55.92% | R+18.9 | D |
| 73 | 26.35% | 71.50% | R+45.2 | 22.73% | 70.59% | R+47.9 | R |
| 74 | 29.70% | 67.81% | R+38.1 | 26.47% | 66.27% | R+39.8 | R |
| 75 | 30.67% | 66.90% | R+36.2 | 24.51% | 69.40% | R+44.9 | R |
| 76 | 30.91% | 66.27% | R+35.4 | 24.82% | 68.60% | R+43.8 | R |
| 77 | 27.21% | 70.71% | R+43.5 | 22.92% | 70.69% | R+47.8 | R |
| 78 | 34.61% | 63.40% | R+28.8 | 38.30% | 53.87% | R+15.6 | R |
| 79 | 32.96% | 65.00% | R+32 | 28.05% | 65.25% | R+37.2 | D |
| 80 | 35.06% | 62.13% | R+27.1 | 26.70% | 67.44% | R+40.7 | R |
| 81 | 33.84% | 63.99% | R+30.2 | 31.03% | 61.27% | R+30.2 | R |
| 82 | 30.06% | 67.52% | R+37.5 | 26.99% | 65.38% | R+38.4 | R |
| 83 | 54.37% | 43.11% | D+11.3 | 51.85% | 39.65% | D+12.2 | D |
| 84 | 70.84% | 26.86% | D+44 | 68.69% | 24.53% | D+44.2 | D |
| 85 | 34.31% | 63.97% | R+29.7 | 37.32% | 56.24% | R+18.9 | R |
| 86 | 53.12% | 43.21% | D+9.9 | 48.15% | 43.40% | D+4.7 | D |
| 87 | 37.57% | 60.74% | R+23.2 | 40.94% | 52.41% | R+11.5 | R |
| 88 | 49.69% | 48.03% | D+1.7 | 47.67% | 44.31% | D+3.4 | D |
| 89 | 61.51% | 37.13% | D+24.4 | 59.18% | 34.73% | D+24.4 | D |
| 90 | 24.03% | 73.80% | R+49.8 | 22.19% | 71.68% | R+49.5 | R |
| 91 | 30.91% | 66.80% | R+35.9 | 29.71% | 63.58% | R+33.9 | R |
| 92 | 50.33% | 46.78% | D+3.5 | 49.74% | 42.40% | D+7.3 | D |
| 93 | 27.30% | 70.28% | R+43 | 21.81% | 71.39% | R+49.6 | R |
| 94 | 29.42% | 68.69% | R+39.3 | 29.97% | 63.69% | R+33.7 | R |
| 95 | 47.49% | 49.01% | R+1.5 | 43.07% | 48.91% | R+5.8 | D |
| 96 | 46.56% | 50.44% | R+3.9 | 39.83% | 52.31% | R+12.5 | D |
| 97 | 36.12% | 61.26% | R+25.1 | 30.50% | 61.72% | R+31.2 | R |
| 98 | 40.62% | 56.26% | R+15.6 | 33.41% | 58.84% | R+25.4 | D |
| 99 | 26.09% | 72.26% | R+46.2 | 28.46% | 64.66% | R+36.2 | R |
| 100 | 31.22% | 66.92% | R+35.7 | 31.69% | 61.73% | R+30 | R |
| 101 | 23.17% | 75.00% | R+51.8 | 21.32% | 72.49% | R+51.2 | R |
| 102 | 44.74% | 51.67% | R+6.9 | 36.80% | 53.97% | R+17.2 | D |
| 103 | 64.24% | 33.10% | D+31.1 | 59.09% | 33.27% | D+25.8 | D |
| 104 | 31.01% | 67.13% | R+36.1 | 29.17% | 64.11% | R+34.9 | R |
| 105 | 37.77% | 59.32% | R+21.5 | 36.00% | 56.30% | R+20.3 | R |
| 106 | 23.27% | 74.50% | R+51.2 | 18.06% | 76.25% | R+58.2 | R |
| 107 | 21.11% | 76.29% | R+55.2 | 16.89% | 77.37% | R+60.5 | R |
| 108 | 28.23% | 68.87% | R+40.6 | 24.51% | 68.39% | R+43.9 | R |
| 109 | 18.44% | 79.59% | R+61.2 | 14.04% | 81.00% | R+67 | R |
| 110 | 17.45% | 80.37% | R+62.9 | 13.13% | 82.19% | R+69.1 | R |
| 111 | 26.84% | 71.10% | R+44.3 | 24.33% | 69.49% | R+45.2 | D |
| 112 | 23.09% | 75.31% | R+52.2 | 19.09% | 75.85% | R+56.8 | R |
| 113 | 24.26% | 73.83% | R+49.6 | 18.44% | 76.06% | R+57.6 | R |
| 114 | 26.19% | 71.17% | R+45 | 20.18% | 73.85% | R+53.7 | R |
| 115 | 19.36% | 78.60% | R+59.2 | 15.93% | 78.96% | R+63 | R |
| 116 | 24.38% | 73.12% | R+48.7 | 16.94% | 76.79% | R+59.8 | R |
| 117 | 20.29% | 78.08% | R+57.8 | 15.14% | 79.76% | R+64.6 | R |
| 118 | 14.70% | 83.44% | R+68.7 | 11.38% | 84.39% | R+73 | R |
| 119 | 35.54% | 62.75% | R+27.2 | 33.22% | 61.23% | R+28 | R |
| 120 | 17.37% | 80.09% | R+62.7 | 12.51% | 82.46% | R+70 | R |
| 121 | 34.73% | 63.15% | R+28.4 | 37.99% | 54.71% | R+16.7 | R |
| 122 | 21.80% | 76.17% | R+54.4 | 20.40% | 74.49% | R+54.1 | R |
| 123 | 32.30% | 65.78% | R+33.5 | 35.21% | 58.47% | R+23.3 | R |
| 124 | 16.22% | 82.22% | R+66 | 15.64% | 79.80% | R+64.2 | R |
| 125 | 29.14% | 69.53% | R+40.4 | 32.81% | 62.26% | R+29.4 | R |
| Total | 38.08% | 59.72% | R+21.6 | 36.28% | 57.01% | R+20.7 | - |
| Source: Daily Kos | |||||||
District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+15, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 15 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Kansas' 4th Congressional District the 78th most Republican nationally.[5]
FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.12. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.12 points toward that party.[6]
Campaign finance
This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[7] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[8] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Estes | Republican Party | $2,003,150 | $1,429,529 | $844,164 | As of December 31, 2020 |
| Laura Lombard | Democratic Party | $276,063 | $270,288 | $5,775 | As of November 23, 2020 |
|
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
|||||
Race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[9]
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[10][11][12]
| Race ratings: Kansas' 4th Congressional District election, 2020 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
| November 3, 2020 | October 27, 2020 | October 20, 2020 | October 13, 2020 | ||||||
| The Cook Political Report | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | |||||
| Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | |||||
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | |||||
| Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season. | |||||||||
District election history
2018
General election
General election for U.S. House Kansas District 4
Incumbent Ron Estes defeated James Thompson in the general election for U.S. House Kansas District 4 on November 6, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Ron Estes (R) | 59.4 | 144,248 |
 | James Thompson (D) | 40.6 | 98,445 | |
| Total votes: 242,693 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House Kansas District 4
James Thompson defeated Laura Lombard in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Kansas District 4 on August 7, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | James Thompson | 65.2 | 20,261 |
| Laura Lombard | 34.8 | 10,797 | |
| Total votes: 31,058 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Kansas District 4
Incumbent Ron Estes defeated Ron M. Estes in the Republican primary for U.S. House Kansas District 4 on August 7, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Ron Estes | 81.4 | 57,522 |
| Ron M. Estes | 18.6 | 13,159 | ||
| Total votes: 70,681 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
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2017
This election was widely regarded in the initial stages as a "safe Republican" seat. With a week to go, however, it was downgraded by some election analysts such as Inside Elections/Roll Call from "solid Republican" to "likely Republican".[13] Ballotpedia changed its ranking in the days leading up to the election to a "Lean R" seat. Ron Estes (R) defeated James Thompson (D), and Chris Rockhold (L) in the general election on April 11, 2017. No primary elections were held in the race; the candidates were chosen at their respective party nominating conventions in February. The election replaced Mike Pompeo (R), who was selected as director of the CIA.[14][15][16] According to Kansas' voter affiliation records, Thompson was a registered Republican until March 2016.[17]
The election was the first congressional election to take place since Donald Trump's election to the presidency in November 2016. Trump's initial popularity in the District was evident. The President won the 4th District in 2016 by 27 percentage points. Pompeo pulled a margin of victory of 31.1 points in his final re-election bid. However, Governor Sam Brownback's (R) unpopularity across the state and an internal Republican poll in the final few days showing Estes ahead by one point signaled to Democrats and Republicans across the country that this race was closer than expected. Ultimately the race was closer than initially expected, with Estes winning by a margin of roughly seven percent.[18] The last time a Democrat was elected from Kansas' 4th Congressional District was in 1992.
| U.S. House, Kansas District 4 Special Election, 2017 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
| Republican |  Ron Estes |
52.2% | 64,044 | |
| Democratic | James Thompson | 46% | 56,435 | |
| Libertarian | Chris Rockhold | 1.7% | 2,115 | |
| Total Votes | 122,594 | |||
| Source: Kansas Secretary of State | ||||
2016
Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Mike Pompeo (R) defeated Daniel Giroux (D), Gordon Bakken (L), and Miranda Allen (I) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Pompeo faced no primary challenger, while Giroux defeated Robert Leon Tillman in the Democratic primary. The primary elections took place on August 2, 2016.[19][20]
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mike Pompeo Incumbent |
60.7% | 166,998 | |
| Democratic | Daniel Giroux | 29.6% | 81,495 | |
| Independent | Miranda Allen | 6.9% | 19,021 | |
| Libertarian | Gordon Bakken | 2.8% | 7,737 | |
| Total Votes | 275,251 | |||
| Source: Kansas Secretary of State | ||||
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Daniel Giroux |
51.5% | 9,489 | ||
| Robert Leon Tillman | 48.5% | 8,936 | ||
| Total Votes | 18,425 | |||
| Source: Kansas Secretary of State |
||||
2014
The 4th Congressional District of Kansas held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Mike Pompeo (R) defeated Perry Schuckman (D) in the general election.
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mike Pompeo Incumbent |
67% | 138,757 | |
| Democratic | Perry Schuckman | 33% | 69,396 | |
| Total Votes | 208,153 | |||
| Source: Kansas Secretary of State | ||||
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in Kansas, 2020
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2020
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Kansas Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed August 30, 2012
- ↑ 270towin.com, "Kansas," accessed June 1, 2017
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
- ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
- ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
- ↑ Hotair, "Kansas closely watched today in first special election under Trump", April 11, 2017
- ↑ The Wichita Eagle, "Lawyer James Thompson wins Democratic nomination for Congress," February 11, 2017
- ↑ KSN.com, "Kansas Libertarians nominate Chris Rockhold for 4th district seat," February 11, 2017
- ↑ KWCH 12, "Ron Estes nominated as GOP candidate for 4th district seat," February 9, 2017
- ↑ This information was obtained by Ballotpedia through a phone call to the Sedgwick County Election Office and speaking with Melanie Callaway
- ↑ Kansas City Star, "Republicans sweat surprisingly close Kansas congressional race," April 10, 2017
- ↑ Kansas Secretary of State, "Candidates for the 2016 Primary," accessed June 2, 2016
- ↑ Politico, "Kansas House Primaries Results," August 2, 2016
