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Kansas' 4th Congressional District election, 2018

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General election

General election for U.S. House Kansas District 4

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Ron Estes
Ron Estes (R)
 
59.4
 
144,248
Image of James Thompson
James Thompson (D)
 
40.6
 
98,445

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 242,693
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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2020 →
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Kansas' 4th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: June 1, 2018
Primary: August 7, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Ron Estes (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Kansas
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): R+15
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Kansas' 4th Congressional District
1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th
Kansas elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 4th Congressional District of Kansas, held elections in 2018.

Heading into the election the incumbent was Ron Estes (R), who was first elected in a special election on April 11, 2017. The Republican primary also included a similarly-named challenger, Ron M. Estes.

Kansas' 4th Congressional District is located in southern Kansas and includes Barber, Butler, Chautauqua, Comanche, Cowley, Edwards, Elk, Greenwood, Harper, Harvey, Kingman, Kiowa, Pratt, Sedgwick, Stafford, and Sumner counties as well as a portion of Pawnee County. The largest city in the district is Wichita.[1]



Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Kansas District 4

Incumbent Ron Estes defeated James Thompson in the general election for U.S. House Kansas District 4 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Ron Estes
Ron Estes (R)
 
59.4
 
144,248
Image of James Thompson
James Thompson (D)
 
40.6
 
98,445

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 242,693
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Kansas District 4

James Thompson defeated Laura Lombard in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Kansas District 4 on August 7, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of James Thompson
James Thompson
 
65.2
 
20,261
Image of Laura Lombard
Laura Lombard
 
34.8
 
10,797

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 31,058
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Kansas District 4

Incumbent Ron Estes defeated Ron M. Estes in the Republican primary for U.S. House Kansas District 4 on August 7, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Ron Estes
Ron Estes
 
81.4
 
57,522
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Ron M. Estes
 
18.6
 
13,159

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 70,681
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+15, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 15 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Kansas' 4th Congressional District the 78th most Republican nationally.[2]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.12. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.12 points toward that party.[3]

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Ron Estes Republican Party $1,850,090 $1,579,546 $270,544 As of December 31, 2018
James Thompson Democratic Party $1,483,690 $1,483,690 $0 As of December 31, 2018

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


District history

2017

See also: Kansas' 4th Congressional District special election, 2017

This election was widely regarded in the initial stages as a "safe Republican" seat. With a week to go, however, it was downgraded by some election analysts such as Inside Elections/Roll Call from "solid Republican" to "likely Republican".[4] Ballotpedia changed its ranking in the days leading up to the election to a "Lean R" seat. Ron Estes (R) defeated James Thompson (D), and Chris Rockhold (L) in the general election on April 11, 2017. No primary elections were held in the race; the candidates were chosen at their respective party nominating conventions in February. The election replaced Mike Pompeo (R), who was selected as director of the CIA.[5][6][7] According to Kansas' voter affiliation records, Thompson was a registered Republican until March 2016.[8]

The election was the first congressional election to take place since Donald Trump's election to the presidency in November 2016. Trump's initial popularity in the District was evident. The President won the 4th District in 2016 by 27 percentage points. Pompeo pulled a margin of victory of 31.1 points in his final re-election bid. However, Governor Sam Brownback's (R) unpopularity across the state and an internal Republican poll in the final few days showing Estes ahead by one point signaled to Democrats and Republicans across the country that this race was closer than expected. Ultimately the race was closer than initially expected, with Estes winning by a margin of roughly seven percent.[9] The last time a Democrat was elected from Kansas' 4th Congressional District was in 1992.

U.S. House, Kansas District 4 Special Election, 2017
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngRon Estes 52.2% 64,044
     Democratic James Thompson 46% 56,435
     Libertarian Chris Rockhold 1.7% 2,115
Total Votes 122,594
Source: Kansas Secretary of State

2016

See also: Kansas' 4th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Mike Pompeo (R) defeated Daniel Giroux (D), Gordon Bakken (L), and Miranda Allen (I) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Pompeo faced no primary challenger, while Giroux defeated Robert Leon Tillman in the Democratic primary. The primary elections took place on August 2, 2016.[10][11]

U.S. House, Kansas District 4 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngMike Pompeo Incumbent 60.7% 166,998
     Democratic Daniel Giroux 29.6% 81,495
     Independent Miranda Allen 6.9% 19,021
     Libertarian Gordon Bakken 2.8% 7,737
Total Votes 275,251
Source: Kansas Secretary of State


U.S. House, Kansas District 4 Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngDaniel Giroux 51.5% 9,489
Robert Leon Tillman 48.5% 8,936
Total Votes 18,425
Source: Kansas Secretary of State

2014

See also: Kansas' 4th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 4th Congressional District of Kansas held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Mike Pompeo (R) defeated Perry Schuckman (D) in the general election.

U.S. House, Kansas District 4 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngMike Pompeo Incumbent 67% 138,757
     Democratic Perry Schuckman 33% 69,396
Total Votes 208,153
Source: Kansas Secretary of State

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

There are no Pivot Counties in Kansas. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Kansas with 56.7 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 36.1 percent. In presidential elections between 1864 and 2016, Kansas voted Republican 84.21 percent of the time and Democratic 15.78 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Kansas voted Republican all five times.[12]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Kansas. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[13][14]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 29 out of 125 state House districts in Kansas with an average margin of victory of 21.8 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 34 out of 125 state House districts in Kansas with an average margin of victory of 20.9 points. Clinton won six districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 96 out of 125 state House districts in Kansas with an average margin of victory of 32.8 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 91 out of 125 state House districts in Kansas with an average margin of victory of 35.5 points. Trump won 11 districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Kansas heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

Republicans controlled both chambers of the Kansas State Legislature. They had a 85-40 majority in the state House and a 30-9 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

  • Kansas had a Republican trifecta, meaning that the Republican Party controlled both chambers of the state legislature and the governorship. Jeff Colyer served as governor; he succeeded Sam Brownback, who left office in January 2018 after being appointed ambassador-at-large for international religious freedom by Pres. Donald Trump.

2018 elections

See also: Kansas elections, 2018

Kansas held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Kansas
 KansasU.S.
Total population:2,906,721316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):81,7593,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:85.2%73.6%
Black/African American:5.8%12.6%
Asian:2.6%5.1%
Native American:0.8%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
Two or more:3.3%3%
Hispanic/Latino:11.2%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:90.2%86.7%
College graduation rate:31%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$52,205$53,889
Persons below poverty level:15%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Kansas.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Kansas' three largest cities were Wichita (pop. est. 390,000), Overland Park (pop. est. 190,000), and Kansas City (pop. est. 150,000).[15]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Kansas from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Kansas Secretary of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Kansas every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Kansas 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 56.6% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 36.0% 20.6%
2012 Republican Party Mitt Romney 59.7% Democratic Party Barack Obama 37.9% 21.8%
2008 Republican Party John McCain 56.6% Democratic Party Barack Obama 41.6% 15.0%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 62.0% Democratic Party John Kerry 36.6% 25.4%
2000 Republican Party George W. Bush 58.0% Democratic Party Al Gore 37.2% 20.8%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Kansas from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Kansas 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Jerry Moran 62.1% Democratic Party Patrick Wiesner 32.2% 29.9%
2014 Republican Party Pat Roberts 53.1% Grey.png Greg Orman 42.5% 10.6%
2010 Republican Party Jerry Moran 70.0% Democratic Party Lisa Johnston 26.3% 43.7%
2008 Republican Party Pat Roberts 60.0% Democratic Party Jim Slattery 36.4% 23.6%
2004 Republican Party Sam Brownback 69.1% Democratic Party Lee Jones 27.4% 41.7%
2002 Republican Party Pat Roberts 82.5% Libertarian Party Steven Rosile 9.1% 73.4%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Kansas.

Election results (Governor), Kansas 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Sam Brownback 49.8% Democratic Party Paul Davis 46.1% 3.7%
2010 Republican Party Sam Brownback 63.2% Democratic Party Tom Holland 32.2% 31.0%
2006 Democratic Party Kathleen Sebelius 57.9% Republican Party Jim Barnett 40.4% 17.5%
2002 Democratic Party Kathleen Sebelius 52.9% Republican Party Tim Shallenburger 45.1% 7.8%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Kansas in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Kansas 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 4 100% Democratic Party 0 0% R+4
2014 Republican Party 4 100% Democratic Party 0 0% R+4
2012 Republican Party 4 100% Democratic Party 0 0% R+4
2010 Republican Party 4 100% Democratic Party 0 0% R+4
2008 Republican Party 3 75.0% Democratic Party 1 25.0% R+3
2006 Republican Party 2 50.0% Democratic Party 2 50.0% Split
2004 Republican Party 3 75.0% Democratic Party 1 25.0% R+3
2002 Republican Party 3 75.0% Democratic Party 1 25.0% R+3
2000 Republican Party 3 75.0% Democratic Party 1 25.0% R+3

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Kansas Party Control: 1992-2025
No Democratic trifectas  •  Sixteen years of Republican trifectas

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor D D D R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D
Senate R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Kansas Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed August 30, 2012
  2. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  3. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  4. ↑ Hotair, "Kansas closely watched today in first special election under Trump", April 11, 2017
  5. ↑ The Wichita Eagle, "Lawyer James Thompson wins Democratic nomination for Congress," February 11, 2017
  6. ↑ KSN.com, "Kansas Libertarians nominate Chris Rockhold for 4th district seat," February 11, 2017
  7. ↑ KWCH 12, "Ron Estes nominated as GOP candidate for 4th district seat," February 9, 2017
  8. ↑ This information was obtained by Ballotpedia through a phone call to the Sedgwick County Election Office and speaking with Melanie Callaway
  9. ↑ Kansas City Star, "Republicans sweat surprisingly close Kansas congressional race," April 10, 2017
  10. ↑ Kansas Secretary of State, "Candidates for the 2016 Primary," accessed June 2, 2016
  11. ↑ Politico, "Kansas House Primaries Results," August 2, 2016
  12. ↑ 270towin.com, "Kansas," accessed June 1, 2017
  13. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  14. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  15. ↑ Kansas Demographics, "Kansas Cities by Population," accessed September 4, 2018
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Kansas' current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Roger Marshall (R)
Jerry Moran (R)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
Ron Estes (R)
Republican Party (5)
Democratic Party (1)

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