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Oklahoma's 2nd Congressional District election, 2020 (June 30 Republican primary)

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2022
2018
Oklahoma's 2nd Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: April 10, 2020
Primary: June 30, 2020
Primary runoff: August 25, 2020
General: November 3, 2020

Pre-election incumbent:
Markwayne Mullin (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Oklahoma
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Oklahoma's 2nd Congressional District
U.S. Senate1st2nd3rd4th5th
Oklahoma elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

A Republican Party primary took place on June 30, 2020, in Oklahoma's 2nd Congressional District to determine which Republican candidate would run in the district's general election on November 3, 2020.

Incumbent Markwayne Mullin advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Oklahoma District 2.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
April 10, 2020
June 30, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election, the incumbent was Markwayne Mullin (Republican), who was first elected in 2012.

A primary election is an election in which registered voters select a candidate that they believe should be a political party's candidate for elected office to run in the general election. They are also used to choose convention delegates and party leaders. Primaries are state-level and local-level elections that take place prior to a general election. In Oklahoma, the Republican Party conducts a closed primary, in which only registered party members may participate. The Democratic Party holds a semi-closed primary, in which unaffiliated voters may participate.[1]

For information about which offices are nominated via primary election, see this article.

This page focuses on Oklahoma's 2nd Congressional District Republican primary. For more in-depth information on the district's Democratic primary and the general election, see the following pages:

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Oklahoma modified its primary election process as follows:

  • Voting procedures: Voters casting absentee ballots may submit copies of their identification in lieu of fulfilling the notarization requirement in the event of a state of emergency occurring within 45 days of an election. Individuals experiencing symptoms indicative of COVID-19, and individuals classified as vulnerable to infection, may cast an absentee ballot under the 'physical incapacitation' eligibility criterion.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.


Candidates and election results

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Oklahoma District 2

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Markwayne Mullin
Markwayne Mullin
 
79.9
 
53,149
Image of Joseph Silk
Joseph Silk Candidate Connection
 
12.7
 
8,445
Rhonda Hopkins
 
7.4
 
4,917

Total votes: 66,511
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+24, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 24 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Oklahoma's 2nd Congressional District the 23rd most Republican nationally.[2]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.92. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.92 points toward that party.[3]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[4] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[5] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Markwayne Mullin Republican Party $1,670,651 $1,088,384 $610,310 As of December 31, 2020
Rhonda Hopkins Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Joseph Silk Republican Party $29,016 $29,016 $0 As of August 19, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


General election race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[6]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[7][8][9]

Race ratings: Oklahoma's 2nd Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. Oklahoma State Election Board Website, "Voter Registration in Oklahoma," accessed April 27, 2023
  2. Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  3. FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  4. Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  5. Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  6. Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  7. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  8. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  9. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018


Senators
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
Tom Cole (R)
District 5
Republican Party (7)