South Carolina's 5th Congressional District election, 2020

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2022
2018
South Carolina's 5th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 30, 2020
Primary: June 9, 2020
Primary runoff: June 23, 2020
General: November 3, 2020

Pre-election incumbent:
Ralph Norman (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in South Carolina
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
South Carolina's 5th Congressional District
U.S. Senate1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th
South Carolina elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 5th Congressional District of South Carolina, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Ralph Norman won election in the general election for U.S. House South Carolina District 5.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
March 30, 2020
June 9, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican Ralph Norman, who was first elected in 2017.

The 5th District is located in northern South Carolina along the border of North Carolina. The district includes all of Cherokee, Chester, Fairfield, Kershaw, Lancaster, Lee, Union, and York counties. Portions of Newberry, Spartanburg, and Sumter counties also lie within the district.[1]

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, South Carolina's 5th Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 41 39.9
Republican candidate Republican Party 57.6 60.1
Difference 16.6 20.2

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

South Carolina modified its absentee/mail-in and in-person voting procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: Any eligible voter could request an absentee ballot for the general election. Return postage for all mailed absentee ballots was prepaid.
  • In-person voting: In-person absentee voting was authorized to begin on October 5, 2020.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House South Carolina District 5

Incumbent Ralph Norman defeated Moe Brown in the general election for U.S. House South Carolina District 5 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Ralph Norman
Ralph Norman (R)
 
60.1
 
220,006
Image of Moe Brown
Moe Brown (D) Candidate Connection
 
39.9
 
145,979
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.1
 
273

Total votes: 366,258
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House South Carolina District 5

Moe Brown defeated Sidney Moore in the Democratic primary for U.S. House South Carolina District 5 on June 9, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Moe Brown
Moe Brown Candidate Connection
 
67.9
 
32,018
Image of Sidney Moore
Sidney Moore Candidate Connection
 
32.1
 
15,127

Total votes: 47,145
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

The Republican primary election was canceled. Incumbent Ralph Norman advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House South Carolina District 5.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Five of 46 South Carolina counties—10.9 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Barnwell County, South Carolina 5.16% 5.33% 1.65%
Calhoun County, South Carolina 2.83% 4.31% 3.55%
Chester County, South Carolina 4.83% 10.58% 8.30%
Colleton County, South Carolina 8.49% 0.19% 0.53%
McCormick County, South Carolina 3.32% 3.60% 6.08%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won South Carolina with 54.9 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 40.7 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, South Carolina cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 53.3 percent of the time. In that same time frame, South Carolina supported Democratic candidates for president more often than Republican candidates, 53.3 to 43.3 percent. South Carolina favored Republicans in every presidential election between 2000 and 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in South Carolina. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns show the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns show the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[2][3]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 39 out of 124 state House districts in South Carolina with an average margin of victory of 32.8 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 38 out of 124 state House districts in South Carolina with an average margin of victory of 28.3 points. Clinton won one district controlled by a Republican heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 85 out of 124 state House districts in South Carolina with an average margin of victory of 28.7 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 86 out of 124 state House districts in South Carolina with an average margin of victory of 30.1 points. Trump won seven districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+9, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 9 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made South Carolina's 5th Congressional District the 142nd most Republican nationally.[4]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.90. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.90 points toward that party.[5]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[6] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[7] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Ralph Norman Republican Party $1,041,650 $910,151 $727,939 As of December 31, 2020
Moe Brown Democratic Party $487,659 $484,305 $3,353 As of December 31, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[8]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[9][10][11]

Race ratings: South Carolina's 5th Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 5th Congressional District candidates in South Carolina in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in South Carolina, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
South Carolina 5th Congressional District Major party N/A N/A $3,480.00 1% of annual salary multipled by term of office 3/30/2020 Source
South Carolina 5th Congressional District Unaffiliated Pending 5% of active registered voters in district as of 120 days before the election N/A N/A 8/17/2020 Source

District election history

2018

See also: South Carolina's 5th Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House South Carolina District 5

Incumbent Ralph Norman defeated Archie Parnell and Michael Chandler in the general election for U.S. House South Carolina District 5 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Ralph Norman
Ralph Norman (R)
 
57.0
 
141,757
Image of Archie Parnell
Archie Parnell (D)
 
41.5
 
103,129
Michael Chandler (Constitution Party)
 
1.4
 
3,443
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.1
 
250

Total votes: 248,579
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House South Carolina District 5

Archie Parnell defeated Sidney Moore, Mark Ali, and Steve Lough in the Democratic primary for U.S. House South Carolina District 5 on June 12, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Archie Parnell
Archie Parnell
 
60.0
 
16,648
Image of Sidney Moore
Sidney Moore
 
17.2
 
4,766
Image of Mark Ali
Mark Ali
 
13.4
 
3,722
Image of Steve Lough
Steve Lough
 
9.5
 
2,627

Total votes: 27,763
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House South Carolina District 5

Incumbent Ralph Norman advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House South Carolina District 5 on June 12, 2018.

Candidate
Image of Ralph Norman
Ralph Norman

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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2017

See also: South Carolina's 5th Congressional District special election, 2017

Republican Ralph Norman defeated Democrat Archie Parnell and three third-party candidates on June 20, 2017. The election replaced Mick Mulvaney (R), who was confirmed as director of the U.S. Office of Management and Budget.[12] Compared to the tens of millions spent in Georgia's 6th Congressional District special election, which was held on the same day, fundraising and campaigning were more typical in South Carolina's 5th District. Norman raised $1.25 million between January and May, nearly double Parnell's $763,000 in contributions.[13]

U.S. House, South Carolina District 5 Special Election, 2017
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngRalph Norman 51% 45,076
     Democratic Archie Parnell 47.9% 42,341
     American Josh Thornton 0.4% 319
     Libertarian Victor Kocher 0.3% 273
     Green David Kulma 0.3% 242
Total Votes 88,316
Source: South Carolina Secretary of State

Ballotpedia compiled the following resources to help voters better understand the policy positions of the candidates prior to the Republican primary runoff election on May 16, 2017 and the general election on June 20, 2017, the same day as a special election runoff to fill the vacancy left by Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price representing Georgia's 6th Congressional District:


Primary elections were held on May 2, 2017, for the Democratic and Republican candidates. Archie Parnell won the Democratic primary, while Ralph Norman and Tommy Pope advanced to the Republican primary runoff held on May 16, 2017.[14][15][16]

Unofficial results from May 17 showed that Norman defeated Pope by 203 votes, 50.3 percent to 49.7 percent, in the runoff to win the Republican Party's nomination.[17] Following the certification of the election results by all relevant county election boards on May 18, the results automatically triggered a recount by the state of South Carolina. The recount took place on May 19, with official results showing that former Rep. Ralph Norman defeated Rep. Tommy Pope by a margin of 221 votes.[18][19][20]

South Carolina's 5th Congressional District has become a more solid Republican district in recent elections. Mick Mulvaney (R) originally won election to the district in 2010, defeating then-incumbent John Spratt (D) by 10.4 percent. Mulvaney then won re-election in 2012, 2014, and 2016 by margins of 11.1 percent, 21.3 percent, and 20.5 percent, respectively. The presidential vote in the district has followed the same trend in the past three presidential elections. President Donald Trump (R) won the district by 18.5 percent in 2016. Mitt Romney (R) won the district by 11.5 points in 2012, and John McCain (R) won the district by 11.2 percent in 2008.[21] Filing closed in the race on March 13, 2017. Fifteen candidates filed in the race: three Democrats, seven Republicans, and five third-party candidates.

Primary results

U.S. House, South Carolina District 5 Republican Runoff Primary, 2017
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngRalph Norman 50.3% 17,823
Tommy Pope 49.7% 17,602
Total Votes 35,425
Source: South Carolina Secretary of State


U.S. House, South Carolina District 5 Republican Primary, 2017
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngTommy Pope 30.4% 11,943
Green check mark transparent.pngRalph Norman 30.1% 11,808
Tom Mullikin 19.8% 7,759
Chad Connelly 14.1% 5,546
Sheri Few 4.9% 1,930
Kris Wampler 0.5% 197
Ray Craig 0.2% 87
Total Votes 39,270
Source: South Carolina Secretary of State


U.S. House, South Carolina District 5 Democratic Primary, 2017
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngArchie Parnell 71.3% 13,333
Alexis Frank 21.5% 4,030
Les Murphy 7.2% 1,346
Total Votes 18,709
Source: South Carolina Secretary of State

2016

See also: South Carolina's 5th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Mick Mulvaney (R) defeated Fran Person (D) and Rudy Barnes Jr. (American) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Mulvaney defeated Ray Craig in the Republican primary, while Person ran unopposed in the Democratic primary. Barnes defeated Larry Gaither at the party convention. The primary elections took place on June 14, 2016.[15][22]

U.S. House, South Carolina District 5 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngMick Mulvaney Incumbent 59.2% 161,669
     Democratic Fran Person 38.7% 105,772
     American Rudy Barnes Jr. 2% 5,388
     N/A Write-in 0.1% 177
Total Votes 273,006
Source: South Carolina Secretary of State


U.S. House, South Carolina District 5 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngMick Mulvaney Incumbent 78.3% 22,603
Ray Craig 21.7% 6,280
Total Votes 28,883
Source: South Carolina Secretary of State

2014

See also: South Carolina's 5th Congressional District elections, 2014

Incumbent Mick Mulvaney (R) won re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. He defeated Tom Adams (D) in the general election.

U.S. House, South Carolina District 5 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngMick Mulvaney Incumbent 60.6% 103,078
     Democratic Tom Adams 39.3% 66,802
     N/A Write-in 0% 82
Total Votes 169,962
Source: South Carolina State Election Commission

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. South Carolina Redistricting Map "Map" accessed July 30, 2012
  2. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  3. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  4. Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  5. FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  6. Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  7. Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  8. Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  9. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  10. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  11. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  12. ABC 7, "Donald Trump Taps Mick Mulvaney for Office of Management and Budget," December 19, 2016
  13. FEC.gov, "Norman, Ralph W. Jr.," accessed June 20, 2017
  14. South Carolina Election Commission, "U.S. House of Representatives District 5," February 16, 2017
  15. 15.0 15.1 South Carolina Election Commission, "Candidate Listing for the 6/20/2017 US House of Rep Dist 5 Special Election," accessed March 13, 2017 Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name "list" defined multiple times with different content
  16. The New York Times, "Live Election Results: South Carolina’s Fifth Congressional District," May 2, 2017
  17. The New York Times, "Live Election Results: South Carolina’s Fifth Congressional District," accessed May 16, 2017
  18. The State, "Norman apparent winner in tight 5th District GOP runoff," May 16, 2017
  19. The State, "Recount today in 5th District GOP race," May 19, 2017
  20. The State, "5th District recount leaves Norman the winner," May 19, 2017
  21. The Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for the 2016 and 2012 elections," accessed April 26, 2017
  22. The New York Times, "South Carolina Primary Results," June 14, 2016


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