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State Ballot Measure Monthly: February 2018
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By Ballot Measures Project staff
Forty-one (41) statewide ballot measures in 22 states have been certified for 2018 ballots so far. In the last month, five statewide measures were certified to go before voters in 2018.
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This year is starting out with a lower-than-average number of statewide measures certified for the ballot. The average number of certified measures for even-numbered years from 2010 through 2016 was 66 by the seventh Tuesday of the year. The average number of total statewide measures certified for the ballot by the end of the year from 2010 through 2016 was 173.
- 2010: By the seventh week in 2010, 74 measures had been certified for the 2010 ballot
- Ultimately, 184 statewide measures were put on the ballot in 2010.
- 2012: By the seventh week in 2012, 66 measures had been certified for the 2012 ballot
- Ultimately, 188 statewide measures were put on the ballot in 2012.
- 2014: By the seventh week in 2014, 66 measures had been certified for the 2014 ballot.
- Ultimately, 158 statewide measures were put on the ballot in 2014.
- 2016: By the seventh week in 2016, 58 measures had been certified for the 2016 ballot.
- Ultimately, 162 statewide measures were put on the ballot in 2016.
Graphing the data:
The graph below shows the number of certifications in each week of 2010, 2012, 2014, and 2016, as well as the average for each week. The graph also shows 2018 certifications and will be updated each week until ballots are finalized for all states, and the last measure is certified for the ballot.
Follow Ballotpedia's Tuesday Count for 2018 to see a full list and timeline of certifications.
2018 certifications
From January 10 through February 13 the following measures were certified for the ballot on the dates listed:
- January 17, 2018: Florida Amendment 3 was certified after proponents submitted at least 817,766 valid signatures. If the amendment is approved by more than the 60 percent supermajority required on election day, it would provide voters, through citizen-initiated ballot measures, with the exclusive right to decide whether to authorize casino gambling in Florida. The measure would consider card games, casino games, and slot machines to be casino gambling. The measure would not consider pari-mutuel wagering on horse racing, dog racing, or jai alai exhibitions to be casino gambling. The measure would not impact casino gambling on Native American tribal lands established through state-tribe compacts.
- The committee behind this initiative had raised $6.49 million, including in-kind goods and services. The top contributor, as of February 9, 2018, to the support campaign was Disney Worldwide Services, Inc., which contributed $4.35 million. The second largest contributor was the Seminole Tribe of Florida, which contributed $1.28 million. Sponsors of the measure hired National Voter Outreach, Inc. to collect signatures for the petition to qualify this measure for the ballot. A total of $5,282,534.31 was spent to collect the 766,200 valid signatures required to put this measure before voters, resulting in a total cost per required signature (CPRS) of $6.89. Sponsors spent $108,385.79 (2.05 percent) of the total cost on verifying petitions.
- January 22, 2018: Florida Amendment 4 was certified for the ballot after proponents submitted at least 799,278 valid signatures. If the amendment is approved by more than the 60 percent supermajority required on election day, it would automatically restore the right to vote for people with prior felony convictions, except those convicted of murder or a felony sexual offense, upon completion of their sentences, including prison, parole, and probation. As of 2018, Florida is one of four states where convicted felons do not regain the right to vote, until and unless a state officer or board restores an individual's voting rights.
- The committee behind this initiative had raised $5.06 million, including in-kind goods and services. The top contributor, as of February 9, 2018, to the support campaign was the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), which contributed $1.71 million. Sponsors of the measure hired PCI Consultants, Inc. to collect signatures for the petition to qualify this measure for the ballot. A total of $3,890,759.12 was spent to collect the 766,200 valid signatures required to put this measure before voters, resulting in a total cost per required signature (CPRS) of $5.08. Sponsors spent $143,973.64 (3.70 percent) of the total cost on verifying petitions.
- The deadline for signatures to be verified in Florida was February 1, which means no more citizen initiatives will be certified for the 2018 ballot in Florida. Measures can still be referred to the ballot by the legislature or by Florida's unique Constitution Revision Commission, which meets every 20 years.
- The average total cost and CPRS of successful 2016 initiatives in Florida was $4.1 million and $6.07, respectively.
- January 24, 2018: The Kentucky Legislature gave final approval to a Marsy's Law crime victims rights amendment, sending the amendment to the November 2018 ballot. The measure would provide crime victims with specific constitutional rights, which, according to the text, would include the right to be treated with fairness and due consideration for the victim’s safety, dignity, and privacy; to be notified about proceedings; to be heard at proceedings involving release, plea, or sentencing of the accused; to proceedings free from unreasonable delays; to be present at trials; to consult with the state's attorneys; to reasonable protection from the accused and those acting on behalf of the accused; to be notified about release or escape of the accused; to have the victim's and victim's family's safety considered when setting bail or determining release; and to receive restitution from the individual who committed the criminal offense.
- January 29, 2018: The California Legislature gave final approval to an amendment to provide a tax exemption for rainwater capture systems, sending the amendment—Proposition 72—to the ballot for the election on June 5, 2018. The amendment would exclude rainwater capture systems added after January 1, 2019, from property tax reassessments. It was approved unanimously in both the state Senate and state Assembly. It joins four other legislatively referred constitutional amendments on the June ballot.
- February 6, 2018: The Ohio Legislature, in a compromise with a group behind a citizen initiative, gave final approval to a constitutional amendment establishing redistricting procedures, sending it to the ballot for the election on May 8, 2018. The amendment would enact procedures, requiring certain levels of support from members of the two largest parties in the legislature, and standards for the state to adopt congressional redistricting plans. The amendment was approved unanimously in the state Senate and in a vote of 83-10 in the state House. The amendment resulted from negotiations between state Senate Republicans, Democrats, and the leaders of an organization involved in an effort for a redistricting initiative designed to establish a bipartisan commission responsible for congressional redistricting.
Context from past years
In 2016, there was a surge in the number of citizen-initiated measures; 76 initiatives and veto referendums were put on the ballot. This was more citizen-initiated measures than we've seen since 2006.
For initiatives to reach the ballot, they must first be filed for the various approval processes in each state and circulated for signature gathering. Only a small percentage of the initiatives filed actually make the ballot. For example, for the 2016 election cycle, an above-average 1,069 initiatives were filed with state officials. This resulted in 2016's 76 certified citizen-initiated measures, a success rate of 7 percent. Since 2010, Maryland (75%), South Dakota (73%), North Dakota (47%), Alaska (43%), and Maine (32%) had the highest success rates on average. Maryland has a veto referendum process but no initiative process; since 2010, four veto referendums have been filed, and three made the ballot.
As of November 1, 2017, 609 initiatives had been filed for circulation targeting 2018 elections. By January 1, 2016, 690 initiatives have been filed targeting the 2016 ballot. In 2010, 2012, and 2014, the average total number of initiatives filed with state officials was about 610. Of the 26 states that feature an initiative process, 2018 initiatives or veto referendums were filed for circulation in 22 of them. Topics range from marijuana legalization, minimum wage, healthcare, and right to work to taxes, education, election and campaign finance rules, and redistricting. Click on the links below to see what initiatives are circulating in your state.
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Arkansas, Illinois, Maryland, and New Mexico had no filings as of November 1, 2017.
On average since 2010, the most initiatives were filed in Washington, California, and Colorado, where more than 100 are filed for any given even-numbered year on average. California has seen the highest average number of successful initiative attempts. For 2018, Missouri has seen the most filings at 272—about three times the state's average of 97 since 2010. More filings are expected in the last months of 2017 and the first half of 2018. Look into the signature submission deadlines for 2018 initiatives and veto referendums to understand the timeline for each state.
The map and expandable chart below show the average success rates per year of filed initiatives and referendums (I&R) in each state over the last eight years (in even-numbered years).
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The percentage of filed initiatives that reach the ballot does not necessarily correlate with the ease or difficulty of putting an initiative on the ballot in that state. Some states make filing more difficult or more expensive, making only more serious petitioners take that first step. In some states, initiative proponents file multiple versions of substantively the same initiative and ultimately put their efforts behind one.
The data—including the specific success percentage rates—represented by the map above is available below and can be expanded by clicking show.
| Data for average even-year initiative success rates (2010-2018) | |||
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| State | Av. filed | Av. certified | Av. success rate |
| Alabama | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Alaska | 5.20 | 2.00 | 38.46% |
| Arizona | 27.40 | 1.60 | 5.84% |
| Arkansas | 7.40 | 1.60 | 21.62% |
| California | 95.00 | 10.20 | 10.74% |
| Colorado | 102.80 | 5.00 | 4.86% |
| Connecticut | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Delaware | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Florida | 29.20 | 1.80 | 6.16% |
| Georgia | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Hawaii | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Idaho | 7.80 | 1.00 | 12.82% |
| Illinois | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| Indiana | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Iowa | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Kansas | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Kentucky | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Louisiana | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Maine | 6.20 | 2.20 | 35.48% |
| Maryland | 0.80 | 0.60 | 75.00% |
| Massachusetts | 31.80 | 3.40 | 10.69% |
| Michigan | 11.20 | 2.20 | 19.64% |
| Minnesota | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Mississippi | 8.60 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| Missouri | 184.50 | 3.20 | 1.73% |
| Montana | 18.80 | 2.20 | 11.70% |
| Nebraska | 6.60 | 0.60 | 9.09% |
| Nevada | 9.40 | 1.80 | 19.15% |
| New Hampshire | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| New Jersey | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| New Mexico | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0% |
| New York | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| North Carolina | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| North Dakota | 7.60 | 3.80 | 50.00% |
| Ohio | 21.80 | 0.40 | 1.83% |
| Oklahoma | 6.80 | 1.20 | 17.65% |
| Oregon | 63.00 | 5.60 | 8.89% |
| Pennsylvania | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Rhode Island | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| South Carolina | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| South Dakota | 8.40 | 3.80 | 45.24% |
| Tennessee | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Texas | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Utah | 2.60 | 0.60 | 23.08% |
| Vermont | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Virginia | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Washington | 128.60 | 4.60 | 3.58% |
| West Virginia | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Wisconsin | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Wyoming | 0.60 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| Average total | 756.20 | 59.40 | 7.86% |
See also
- 2018 ballot measures
- List of ballot measures by state
- List of ballot measures by year
- Ballot initiatives filed for the 2018 ballot
- Ballot Measure Scorecard, 2018
- Ballotpedia's Tuesday Count for 2018
Related articles
Footnotes
- ↑ The numbers in the second column indicate how many ballot measures were certified for the ballot in the last month; for example a "+3" means that three measures were certified in the last month.
- ↑ This number includes citizen-initiated measures, legislative referrals, and an automatically referred measure. So far, 13 measures have qualified for the ballot through signature petition drives.
- ↑ This was current as of February 13, 2018.
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