State Ballot Measure Monthly: January 2018
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By Ballot Measures Project staff
Thirty-six statewide ballot measures in 20 states have been certified for 2018 ballots so far. In the last two months, three statewide measures were certified to go before voters in 2018.
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This year is starting out with a lower-than-average number of statewide measures certified for the ballot. The average number of certified measures for even-numbered years from 2010 through 2016 was 60 by the second week of the year. The average number of total statewide measures certified for the ballot by the end of the year from 2010 through 2016 was 173.
- 2010: By the second week in 2010, 67 measures had been certified for the 2010 ballot
- Ultimately, 184 statewide measures were put on the ballot in 2010.
- 2012: By the second week in 2012, 62 measures had been certified for the 2012 ballot
- Ultimately, 188 statewide measures were put on the ballot in 2012.
- 2014: By the second week in 2014, 59 measures had been certified for the 2014 ballot.
- Ultimately, 158 statewide measures were put on the ballot in 2014.
- 2016: By the second week in 2016, 42 measures had been certified for the 2016 ballot.
- Ultimately, 162 statewide measures were put on the ballot in 2016.
Graphing the data:
The graph below shows the number of certifications in each week of 2010, 2012, 2014, and 2016, as well as the average for each week. The graph also shows 2018 certifications and will be updated each week until ballots are finalized for all states, and the last measure is certified for the ballot.
Follow Ballotpedia's Tuesday Count for 2018 to see a full list and timeline of certifications.
2018 certifications
- On November 22, 2017, Proposition A—a veto referendum—in Missouri was certified for the November 6, 2018, ballot. A "yes" vote on the measure would uphold the state's right-to-work law, passed as Senate Bill 19 in 2017. If upheld, the bill would mandate that no person can be required to join a labor union or pay dues to a labor union as a condition of employment.
- On December 29, 2017, Constitutional Amendment W in South Dakota was certified for the November 6, 2018, ballot. The initiative would amend the state constitution to revise state campaign finance and lobbying laws, create a new State Government Accountability Board, and establish new laws governing the initiative and referendum process in South Dakota.
- On January 4, 2018, Initiated Measure 24 in South Dakota was certified for the November 6, 2018, ballot. The measure would ban individuals, political action committees, and other entities from outside South Dakota from making contributions to ballot question committees.
Context from past years
In 2016, there was a surge in the number of citizen-initiated measures; 76 initiatives and veto referendums were put on the ballot. This was more citizen-initiated measures than we've seen since 2006.
For initiatives to reach the ballot, they must first be filed for the various approval processes in each state and circulated for signature gathering. Only a small percentage of the initiatives filed actually make the ballot. For example, for the 2016 election cycle, an above-average 1,069 initiatives were filed with state officials. This resulted in 2016's 76 certified citizen-initiated measures, a success rate of 7 percent. Since 2010, Maryland (75%), South Dakota (73%), North Dakota (47%), Alaska (43%), and Maine (32%) had the highest success rates on average. Maryland has a veto referendum process but no initiative process; since 2010, four veto referendums have been filed, and three made the ballot.
As of January 10, 2018, 676 initiatives had been filed for circulation targeting 2018 elections. By January 1, 2016, 690 initiatives had been filed targeting the 2016 ballot. In 2010, 2012, and 2014, the average total number of initiatives filed with state officials was about 610. Of the 26 states that feature an initiative process, 2018 initiatives or veto referendums were filed for circulation in 23 of them. Topics range from marijuana legalization, minimum wage, healthcare, and right to work to taxes, education, election and campaign finance rules, and redistricting. Click on the links below to see what initiatives are circulating in your state.
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Illinois, Maryland, and New Mexico had no filings as of January 10, 2018.
On average since 2010, the most initiatives were filed in Washington, California, and Colorado, where more than 100 are filed for any given even-numbered year on average. California has seen the highest average number of successful initiative attempts. For 2018, Missouri has seen the most filings at 331—more than three times the state's average of 97 since 2010. More filings are expected during the first half of 2018. Look into the signature submission deadlines for 2018 initiatives and veto referendums to understand the timeline for each state.
The map and expandable chart below show the average success rates per year of filed initiatives and referendums (I&R) in each state over the last eight years (in even-numbered years).
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The percentage of filed initiatives that reach the ballot does not necessarily correlate with the ease or difficulty of putting an initiative on the ballot in that state. Some states make filing more difficult or more expensive, making only more serious petitioners take that first step. In some states, initiative proponents file multiple versions of substantively the same initiative and ultimately put their efforts behind one.
The data—including the specific success percentage rates—represented by the map above is available below and can be expanded by clicking show.
| Data for average even-year initiative success rates (2010-2018) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| State | Av. filed | Av. certified | Av. success rate |
| Alabama | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Alaska | 5.20 | 2.00 | 38.46% |
| Arizona | 27.40 | 1.60 | 5.84% |
| Arkansas | 7.40 | 1.60 | 21.62% |
| California | 95.00 | 10.20 | 10.74% |
| Colorado | 102.80 | 5.00 | 4.86% |
| Connecticut | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Delaware | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Florida | 29.20 | 1.80 | 6.16% |
| Georgia | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Hawaii | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Idaho | 7.80 | 1.00 | 12.82% |
| Illinois | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| Indiana | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Iowa | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Kansas | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Kentucky | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Louisiana | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Maine | 6.20 | 2.20 | 35.48% |
| Maryland | 0.80 | 0.60 | 75.00% |
| Massachusetts | 31.80 | 3.40 | 10.69% |
| Michigan | 11.20 | 2.20 | 19.64% |
| Minnesota | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Mississippi | 8.60 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| Missouri | 184.50 | 3.20 | 1.73% |
| Montana | 18.80 | 2.20 | 11.70% |
| Nebraska | 6.60 | 0.60 | 9.09% |
| Nevada | 9.40 | 1.80 | 19.15% |
| New Hampshire | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| New Jersey | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| New Mexico | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0% |
| New York | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| North Carolina | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| North Dakota | 7.60 | 3.80 | 50.00% |
| Ohio | 21.80 | 0.40 | 1.83% |
| Oklahoma | 6.80 | 1.20 | 17.65% |
| Oregon | 63.00 | 5.60 | 8.89% |
| Pennsylvania | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Rhode Island | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| South Carolina | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| South Dakota | 8.40 | 3.80 | 45.24% |
| Tennessee | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Texas | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Utah | 2.60 | 0.60 | 23.08% |
| Vermont | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Virginia | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Washington | 128.60 | 4.60 | 3.58% |
| West Virginia | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Wisconsin | 0.00 | 0.00 | N/A |
| Wyoming | 0.60 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| Average total | 756.20 | 59.40 | 7.86% |
See also
- 2018 ballot measures
- Ballotpedia's Tuesday Count for 2018
- Ballot initiatives filed for the 2018 ballot
- Ballot Measure Scorecard, 2018
- List of ballot measures by state
- List of ballot measures by year
Related articles
Footnotes
- ↑ The numbers in the second column indicate how many ballot measures were certified for the ballot in the last two months; for example a "+3" means that three measures were certified in the last two months.
- ↑ This was current as of January 1, 2018. More filings are expected during the first half of 2018.
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