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The effect of COVID-19 on candidate filing ratios (comparing 2018 to 2020)
Ballotpedia’s coverage of COVID-19 includes how federal, state, and local governments are responding, and how those responses are influencing election rules and operations, political campaigns, the economy, schools, and more.
In response to the coronavirus pandemic, 25 states have changed election dates at the state or local level and 40 states have made changes to voting procedures. Nineteen states have made changes to candidate filing deadlines. These changes include:
- Reducing or suspending the number of petition signatures required to make a ballot;
- Extending filing deadlines past the original due date;
- Allowing candidates to submit qualifying documents, including signed petitions, electronically; and
- Extending the deadline for parties to certify their nominees.
We began to wonder - would the coronavirus pandemic have any impact on the number of candidates filing to run for office? We took a look at the potential effect these changes had on candidate filing ratios—or the number of candidates who filed compared to the seats up for election. We figured a simple approach would work - look at the candidate filings by state and compare them to 2018. Then, specifically use a single date to determine the before/after. We chose the date of comparison as March 13, 2020—the date the Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO) urged countries to take a comprehensive approach to fighting COVID-19. This is an arbitrary date in 2018 because no similar event occurred, but it is chosen as a cutoff date in the charts and tables below for the purpose of year-over-year comparison but necessary to provide a year-over-year comparison. The data shows that the number of candidates who filed in 2020 and in 2018 is similar. In states that held their filing deadlines before and after March 13, more candidates per seat are running for office in 2020 than 2018.
- On or before March 13: In 2020, 1,294 candidates filed to run for 230 U.S. House seats on or before March 13, meaning an average of 5.62 candidates filed for each seat up for election. During the same time period in 2018, 1,126 candidates filed to run for 205 U.S. House seats, meaning an average of 5.49 candidates filed for each seat up for election.
- After March 13: In 2020, 1,084 candidates filed to run for 205 U.S. House seats after March 13, meaning an average of 5.28 candidates filed for each seat up for election. During the same time period in 2018, 1,168 candidates filed to run for 230 U.S. House seats, meaning an average of 5.07 candidates filed for each seat up for election.
In both 2018 and 2020, 435 U.S. House district seats were up for election across all 50 states. Washington D.C., has been excluded from this analysis because there is only one, non-voting representative elected by voters in the District of Columbia. The data from D.C. is not a direct comparison to the other elected members of congress. In 2018, a total of 2,294 candidates filed in the U.S. House elections, and in 2020 a total of 2,378 candidates filed in the U.S. House elections.
The five states with the largest changes in candidate filing ratios—calculated by dividing the number of candidates who filed for election by the number of seats up for election—(positive or negative) from 2018 to 2020 are presented below. For example, in New Hampshire seven fewer candidates filed for election to the U.S. House in 2020 vs. 2018, while in Hawaii four more candidates filed for election to the U.S. House in 2020 vs. 2018.
- New Hampshire — -7.00
- Utah — +6.25
- Hawaii — +4.00
- Idaho — -4.00
- South Carolina — -3.15
In districts where the incumbent legislator does not run for re-election, the seat is guaranteed to a newcomer/term limits and open seats due to retirement or other reasons affect the number of candidates who file for a seat. Congressional elections held during a presidential election year may also affect the number of candidates who file for a seat due to party influences.
Aggregated candidate filing ratios
2018 and 2020 candidate filing ratios
Filing ratios by party
Tabular data representation
General resources
The chart below shows coronavirus statistics from countries across the world. The information is provided by Real Clear Politics.
Click the links below to explore official resources related to the coronavirus outbreak.
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), U.S. Department of Health & Human Services
- National Institutes of Health, U.S. Department of Health & Human Services
- Occupational Safety and Health Administration, U.S. Department of Labor
- U.S. Department of Education
- World Health Organization
- Trends in Number of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the US Reported to CDC, by State/Territory
- Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations, Our World in Data (Number of vaccines administered)
- Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker, New York Times (Progress of vaccine trials)
See also
- Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020
- Federal government responses to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020-2021
- State government responses to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020
- Local government responses to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020
- Government official, politician, and candidate deaths, diagnoses, and quarantines due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020-2021
- Changes to ballot measure campaigns, procedures, and policies in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020-2022
- Federal Politics
- State Politics
- Local Politics
External links
Footnotes
