United States Senate elections, 2012
Elections to the U.S. Senate will be held on November 6, 2012. A total of 33 of the 100 seats will be up for election. Additionally, there could be special elections to fill vacancies that occur in the 112th United States Congress.
Nate Silver of the New York Times called the Senate battle a tossup for partisan control.[1]
Partisan breakdown
| U.S. Senate Partisan Breakdown | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 2012 | After the 2012 Election | |
| Democratic Party | 51 | 53 | |
| Republican Party | 47 | 45 | |
| Independent | 2 | 2 | |
| Total | 100 | 100 | |
The 33 Class 1 U.S. Senate seats will be up for election. Of those 33 seats, 23 are currently held by Democrats and 10 by Republican senators. Thus, Democrats need to win 21 seats to retain their majority while the GOP needs to win 14 seats to win back the chamber.
Overall, Republicans need a net gain of four seats on election night to rest control of the chamber. According to Guy Cecil, executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, "When the cycle started no one gave Democrats a shot a holding the majority." Rob Jesmer, executive director of the Republican Senatorial Committee was hopeful about Republican chances: "There's very good movement across the board," he said.[2]
Retiring incumbents
As of Friday, October 3, 2025, Ballotpedia staff have counted 10 total current incumbents who are not running for re-election in the 2012 elections.
5 Democrats
4 Republicans
1 Independents
Primary
| This map displays the month of each Congressional primary in 2012 |
 |
|
March
April
May
June
|
July
August
September
|
State-by-state breakdown
The following table displays the 33 seats up for election, and will include the eventual November winner.
The table will be updated once election results have been reported on November 6.
Campaign finance
In October 2012, the Campaign Finance Institute released a report detailing the high levels of independent expenditures in the election cycle. From October 5-12, more than $1 million was spent by outside groups in 10 Senate races alone. Those races are:[3]
- Virginia: $4.3 million
- Wisconsin: $3.6 million
- Ohio: $3.3 million
- Montana: $1.9 million
- Florida: $1.4 million
- Connecticut: $1.4 million
- Maine: $1.2 million
- Nevada: $1.2 million
- North Dakota: $1.0 million
- Arizona: $1.0 million
Candidates by state
For a list of all candidates running for office by state, see this page.
Race ratings
Cook Political Report
Each month the Cook Political Report released race ratings for President, U.S. Senate, U.S. House (competitive only) and Governors. There were seven possible designations:[4]
|
Solid Democratic
|
Tossup |
Lean Republican
|
| Cook Political Report Race Rating -- U.S. Senate | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month | Solid D | Likely D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean R | Likely R | Solid R |
| November 1, 2012[5] | 8 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| October 4, 2012[6] | 8 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| September 13, 2012[7] | 8 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| August 21, 2012[8] | 8 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| July 12, 2012[9] | 8 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| May 31, 2012[10] | 8 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| May 10, 2012[11] | 8 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| March 22, 2012[12] | 8 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| March 1, 2012[13] | 8 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| January 26, 2012[14] | 8 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 |
| December 22, 2011[15] | 8 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| December 1, 2011[16] | 8 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
Changes by month
October 2012
- From September 13, 2012, to November 1, 2012, Cook's race ratings changed in the following states:
- Pennsylvania went from Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat
- Michigan went from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat
- Hawaii went from Tossup to Lean Democrat
- Arizona went from Lean Republican to Tossup
- Nebraska went from Likely Republican to Lean Republican
September 2012
- From August 31, 2012, to September 13, 2012, Cook's race ratings changed in the following states:
- New Mexico went from Tossup to Lean Democrat.
- Connecticut went from Likely Democrat to Tossup
- Indiana went from Lean Republican to Tossup
- Arizona went from Likely Republican to Lean Republican
August 2012
- From July 1, 2012, to August 31, 2012, Cook's race ratings changed in the following state:
- Missouri went from Tossup to Likely Democrat.
July 2012
- None
May 2012
- From March 1, 2012, to May 31, 2012, Cook's race ratings changed in the following states:
- Indiana went from Likely Republican to Lean Republican.
- New Jersey went from Solid Democrat to Likely Democrat.
- Washington went from Likely Democrat to Solid Democrat.
March 2012
- From January 26, 2012, to March 1, 2012, Cook's race ratings changed in the following state:
- Maine went from Likely Republican to Tossup.
January 2012
- From December 22, 2011, to January 26, 2012, Cook's race ratings changed in the following states:
December 2011
- From December 1, 2011, to December 22, 2011, Cook's race ratings changed in the following state:
- Texas went from Likely Republican to Strong Republican.
Sabato Crystal Ball
Each month the Crystal Ball releases race ratings for President, U.S. Senate, U.S. House (competitive only) and Governors. There are seven possible designations: [17]
|
Solid Democratic
|
Tossup |
Lean Republican
|
| Sabato's Crystal Ball Race Rating -- U.S. Senate | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month | Solid D | Likely D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean R | Likely R | Solid R |
| August 12, 2012[18] | 9 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 5 |
| April 5, 2012[19] | 8 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| December 1, 2011[20] | 8 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
See also
External links
- Politics1.com "Director of 2012 U.S. Senate Candidates"
- 270towin.com "2012 Senate Election"
- Roll Call "2012 Race Rating Map"
- Public Policy Polling "U.S. Senate 2012"
- Rasmussen Reports "2012 Senate Balance of Power"
References
- ↑ New York Times "In Senate Races, Politics Are Local Again," August 15, 2012
- ↑ Star Tribune "Voter ticket-splitting in half-dozen states could decide whether Dems keep Senate or GOP wins," October 13, 2012
- ↑ Campaign Finance Institute "10 Senate, 3 House Races Top $1 Million in Spending Over the Past 7 Days Alone," October 12, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "Our Accuracy," accessed December 12, 2011
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," November 1, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," October 19, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," October 19, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," August 23, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," July 12, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," May 31, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," May 10, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," March 22, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," March 1, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," January 26, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," December 22, 2011
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," December 1, 2011
- ↑ Cook Political Report "Our Accuracy," Accessed December 12, 2011
- ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball "2012 Senate Ratings," August 12, 2012
- ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball "2012 Senate Ratings," April 5, 2012
- ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," December 1, 2011
