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List of U.S. Congress incumbents who did not run for re-election in 2012
This page lists the incumbent members of the 112th U.S. Congress who did not run for re-election in the 2012 Congress elections.
A total of 53 members of the 112th U.S. Congress did not run for re-election, which represented 9.9 percent of the 535 members.
U.S. Senate members
A total of 10 U.S. Senate incumbents did not run for re-election. The 10 retiring incumbents represented 30.3% of incumbents who were eligible to run for re-election.
6 Democrats
3 Republicans
1 Independent
| Name | Party | State |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Nelson |  Democratic |
Nebraska |
| Daniel Akaka | Democratic |
Hawaii |
| Herb Kohl | Democratic |
Wisconsin |
| Jeff Bingaman | Democratic |
New Mexico |
| Jim Webb | Democratic |
Virginia |
| Joe Lieberman |  Nonpartisan |
Connecticut |
| Jon Kyl |  Republican |
Arizona |
| Kay Bailey Hutchison | Republican |
Texas |
| Kent Conrad | Democratic |
North Dakota |
| Olympia Snowe | Republican |
Maine |
U.S. House members
A total of 43 U.S. House incumbents did not run for re-election in 2012. The 43 incumbents who retired represent 9.7% of incumbents who were eligible to run for re-election.
- 23 Democrats
- 20 Republicans
- (a) - After originally announcing he would not seek re-election, Davis subsequently resigned prior to the end of the 112th Congress on July 31, 2012.
- (b) - After announcing he would run for governor rather than re-election to Congress, Inslee subsequently resigned from the House of Representatives on March 10, 2012.
- (c) - McCotter failed to file enough valid signatures to qualify for the ballot for his House seat. He subsequently resigned prior to the end of the 112th Congress on July 6, 2012.
Officials who left office early
The following members of the 112th U.S. Congress did not complete their term.
| Name | Party | Prior Office |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Weiner | Democratic |
New York |
| David Wu | Democratic |
Oregon |
| Donald M. Payne | Democratic |
New Jersey |
| Gabrielle Giffords | Democratic |
Arizona |
| Thaddeus McCotter | Republican |
Michigan |
Analysis
Historical comparison
The following table includes figures on Democratic and Republican members of Congress who either left office during their term or announced that they would not seek re-election for each election year since 2012.
| Outgoing members of Congress, 2012-2018 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Chamber | Democrats not seeking re-election | Republicans not seeking re-election | Total not seeking re-election | Democrats leaving office early | Republicans leaving office early | Total leaving office early |
| 2018 | |||||||
| U.S. Senate | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| U.S. House | 18 | 34 | 52 | 3 | 14 | 17 | |
| Total | 18 | 37 | 55 | 4 | 16 | 20 | |
| 2016 | |||||||
| U.S. Senate | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| U.S. House | 16 | 24 | 40 | 2 | 5 | 7 | |
| Total | 19 | 26 | 45 | 2 | 5 | 7 | |
| 2014 | |||||||
| U.S. Senate | 5 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| U.S. House | 16 | 25 | 41 | 3 | 6 | 9 | |
| Total | 21 | 27 | 48 | 6 | 8 | 14 | |
| 2012 | |||||||
| U.S. Senate | 6 | 3 | 10[1] | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| U.S. House | 23 | 20 | 43 | 4 | 1 | 5 | |
| Total | 29 | 23 | 53 | 4 | 1 | 5 | |
Retirements as a percentage of party caucus
The number of retirements in each party as a percentage of the party's total number of Congressional members illustrates the amount of turnover happening within a party in a given election cycle. The table below shows Congressional retirements as a percentage of each party's total caucus members immediately following the previous election.
| Retirements as percent of Democrat and Republican caucus | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cycle | Total retiring incumbents | Retiring Democrats | Retiring Democrats as percentage of caucus | Retiring Republicans | Retiring Republicans as percentage of caucus |
| 2022 | 55 | 32 | 11.85% | 23 | 8.75% |
| 2020 | 40 | 10 | 3.57% | 29 | 11.46% |
| 2018 | 55 | 18 | 7.44% | 37 | 12.63% |
| 2016 | 45 | 19 | 8.12% | 26 | 8.64% |
| 2014 | 48 | 21 | 8.47% | 27 | 9.41% |
Prior election margins of victory
Retirements in districts with a narrow margin of victory (MOV) can indicate a potentially competitive election in the next cycle. Retirements from seats with a margin of victory of less than 10 percentage points in each election cycle included:
- Seven Democrats and three Republicans out of 56 total retirements in the 2022 cycle
- Seven Republicans out of 40 total retirements in the 2020 cycle
- Five Democrats and three Republicans out of 55 total retirements in the 2018 cycle
- Five Democrats and one Republican out of 45 total retirements in the 2016 cycle
- Five Democrats and Five Republicans out of 48 total retirements in the 2014 cycle
| Retirements in districts that had a MOV of 10 percentage points or less in the prior cycle, 2014-2022 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cycle | Total retiring incumbents | Retiring incumbents with MOV of <10% | Retiring Democrats with MOV of <10% | Retiring Republicans with MOV of <10% |
| 2022 | 55 | 10 | 7 | 3 |
| 2020 | 40 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 2018 | 55 | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| 2016 | 45 | 6 | 5 | 1 |
| 2014 | 48 | 10 | 5 | 5 |
The average 2016 margin of victory of House incumbents not running for re-election in 2018 was 29.7 percent. By comparison, the average 2014 margin of victory of those House members who did not run for re-election in 2016 was 34.1 percent.
Ballotpedia noted the margin of victory in the previous election of U.S. House incumbents who did not run for re-election in 2018, as compared to those incumbents who did not run for re-election in 2016. This data is shown in the chart below. The average margin of victory in all U.S. House races in 2016 was 36.7 percent.
- Note: This data for this analysis includes six members who announced they were not running for re-election in the 2018 cycle prior to their resigning from the House of Representatives.
See also
- ↑ Figure includes Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.).
