United States Senate elections in Massachusetts, 2012
 Massachusetts's 2012 elections: • U.S. Senate • U.S. House • State Senate • State House • Ballot measures |
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Elizabeth Warren  |
Scott Brown  |
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Tossup (Prior to election) |
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Contents |
Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren defeated Republican incumbent Scott Brown on November 6th, 2012.[1]
| Candidate Filing Deadline | Primary Election | General Election |
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Primary: Massachusetts has a mostly closed primary system, in which the selection of a party's candidates in an election is limited to registered party members. In Massachusetts, however, independent voters may select which party's primary to vote in.
Voter registration: Voters were required to register to vote in the primary by August 17. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 17.[2]
- See also: Massachusetts elections, 2012
Incumbent: The election filled the Class 1 Senate seat, which was held by Scott Brown (R). First elected during a special election in 2010, Brown ran for re-election in 2012 and was defeated by Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren.
The primary election was originally scheduled for September 18 but was moved to avoid Rosh Hashanah;[3] another change of date is possible though unlikely.[4]
An October 2012 article in The Hill predicted both parties had an equal opportunity at holding control of the Senate after the November election. Specifically, three races were named that could cost the GOP control of the chamber -- Indiana, Massachusetts and Nevada.[5]
Candidates
Note: Election results were added on election night as races were called. Vote totals will be added when official election results are certified. For more information about Ballotpedia's election coverage plan, click here. If you find any errors in this list, please email: Geoff Pallay.
General election candidates
- Elizabeth Warren
- Scott Brown Incumbent
Bill Cimbrelo
Democratic Primary
- Elizabeth Warren: Professor[6]
- Note: Eno Mondesir initially filed but no longer appears on the official candidate list.[7]
- Note: Herb Robinson is now running for U.S. House[8]. Marisa DeFranco did not win enough votes at the Democratic state convention to earn a spot on the primary ballot. [9]
Republican primary
- Scott Brown: Incumbent[10]
Independent candidate
Election Results
| U.S. Senate, Massachusetts, General Election, 2012 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
| Democratic | Elizabeth Warren |
53.3% | 1,696,346 | |
| Republican | Scott Brown Incumbent | 45.8% | 1,458,048 | |
| N/A | All Others | 0.1% | 2,159 | |
| N/A | Blank Votes | 0.9% | 27,643 | |
| Total Votes | 3,184,196 | |||
| Source: Massachusetts Secretary of State "Return of Votes" | ||||
Race background
On January 19, 2010, a special election was held to fill the seat of stalwart Democratic Senator Edward M. Kennedy, who passed away about five months earlier. The result of the election was surprising, with Scott Brown, a Republican, defeating Martha Coakley (D) and Joseph L. Kennedy (L) for the post.[11] Brown is seeking full term re-election to the Class 1 Senate seat in 2012. He ran unopposed in the party's primary on September 6th, and will face Harvard Professor Elizabeth Warren (D) in the general election. Warren's robust campaign war-chest, considerable name recognition, and clout among Democrats--a product of her work with the Obama administration creating the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau--present a formidable challenge to Brown's re-election.
Competitiveness
The Republican effort to reclaim the majority in the Senate this year hinges considerably upon Brown's successful re-election. This fact, combined with Warren's strong showing in fundraising and polling data as of two months before the general election, indicate the race is both high-stakes and highly competitive. The New York Times' analysis of the 2012 Massachusetts Senate race rated it as a toss-up.[12]
Race rating
Cook Political Report
Each month the Cook Political Report releases race ratings for President, U.S. Senate, U.S. House (competitive only) and Governors. There are seven possible designations: [13]
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Solid Democratic
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Tossup |
Lean Republican
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| Cook Political Report Race Rating -- Massachusetts Senate | |
|---|---|
| Month | Rating |
| November 1, 2012[14] | |
| October 4, 2012[15] | |
| September 13, 2012[16] | |
| August 21, 2012[17] | |
| July 12, 2012[18] | |
| May 31, 2012[19] | |
| May 10, 2012[20] | |
| March 22, 2012[21] | |
| March 1, 2012[22] | |
| January 26, 2012[23] | |
| December 22, 2011[24] | |
| December 1, 2011[25] | |
Sabato's Crystal Ball
The University of Virginia's Center for Politics published an article called Sabato's Crystal Ball on March 22, 2012 detailing the 8 races in the Senate in 2012 that will decide the political fate of which party will end up with control in 2013.[26] The seat rated a a toss-up that the Sabato's Crystal Ball believes is second most likely to end up Republican, second only to Montana, is the Senate seat in Massachusetts.[26] The article notes that Scott Brown has had recent campaigning success in Massachusetts, and despite mixed polls, Brown’s "blue-collar appeal" might be enough against his opponent, Democrat Elizabeth Warren.[26]
Polls
Scott Brown vs. Elizabeth Warren
| Scott Brown vs. Elizabeth Warren | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Response | UMass/Boston Herald (December 1-6, 2011) | Western NE College (October 17-23, 2011) | Public Policy Polling (March 16-18, 2012) | The MassInc Polling Group (July 19-22, 2012) | Public Policy Polling (August 16-19, 2012) | Rasmussen Reports (September 24, 2012) | WBUR Massachusetts (October 21-22, 2012) | Average | ||||||
| Scott Brown | 42% | 47% | 46% | 38% | 49% | 48% | 43% | 44.71% | ||||||
| Elizabeth Warren | 49% | 42% | 46% | 40% | 44% | 48% | 48% | 45.286% | ||||||
| Neither | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | ||||||
| Don't know | 6% | 10% | 8% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 7% | 8.29% | ||||||
| Number polled | 505 | 475 | 902 | 503 | 1,115 | 500 | 516 | 645.14 | ||||||
| Margin of error | +/-5.3 | +/-4.5% | +/-3.3% | +/-4.4% | +/-2.9% | +/-4.5% | +/-4.4% | 4.19% | ||||||
| Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org | ||||||||||||||
Election history
2010
On January 19, 2010, Brown won a special election to the United States Senate. He defeated Martha Coakley (D) and Joseph L. Kennedy (L) in the special election.[27]
| U.S. Senate Special Election, Massachusetts, 2010 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
| Republican | Scott Brown |
51.9% | 1,168,178 | |
| Democratic | Martha Coakley | 47.1% | 1,060,861 | |
| Libertarian | Joseph L. Kennedy | 1% | 22,388 | |
| Independent | Write-In | 0.1% | 1,155 | |
| Total Votes | 2,252,582 | |||
2008
On November 4, 2008, John Kerry won re-election to the United States Senate. He defeated Jeffrey Beatty and Robert Underwood in the general election.[28]
| U.S. Senate General Election, Massachusetts, 2008 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
| Democratic | John Kerry Incumbent |
65.9% | 1,971,974 | |
| Republican | Jeffrey Beatty | 31% | 926,044 | |
| Libertarian | Robert Underwood | 3.1% | 93,713 | |
| Total Votes | 2,991,731 | |||
Campaign donors
Scott Brown
| Scott Brown (2012)[29] Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
| April Quarterly[30] | March 31, 2012 | $12,892,256.90 | $3,369,239.51 | $(1,369,832.79) | $14,891,663.62 | ||||
| July Quarterly[31] | June 30, 2012 | $14,891,663.62 | $4,973,232.75 | $(4,301,246.14) | $15,563,650.23 | ||||
| Pre-Primary[32] | August 24, 2012 | $15,563,650.23 | $2,528,635.46 | $(3,898,452.00) | $14,193,833.69 | ||||
| October Quarterly[33] | October 15, 2012 | $14,193,833.69 | $4,952,920.67 | $(8,888,205.27) | $10,258,549.09 | ||||
| Pre-General[34] | October 25, 2012 | $10,258,549.09 | $1,804,304.36 | $(8,366,372.52) | $3,696,480.93 | ||||
| Running totals | |||||||||
| $17,628,332.75 | $(26,824,108.72) | ||||||||
Brown raised $7.45 million in the third quarter and has $10.2 million cash on hand.[35]
Elizabeth Warren
| Elizabeth Warren (2012)[36] Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
| April Quarterly[37] | March 31, 2012 | $6,141,942.11 | $6,924,212.48 | $(21,006,195.85) | $10,959,958.74 | ||||
| July Quarterly[38] | June 30, 2012 | $10,959,958.75 | $8,674,357.15 | $(6,103,432.28) | $13,530,883.62 | ||||
| Pre-Primary[39] | August 8, 2012 | $13,530,883.62 | $3,738,662.97 | $(4,932,502.21) | $12,337,044.38 | ||||
| October Quarterly[40] | October 3, 2012 | $12,337,044.38 | $8,383,315.74 | $(13,434,295.79) | $7,286,064.33 | ||||
| Pre-General[41] | October 3, 2012 | $7,286,064.33 | $2,525,146.82 | $(6,341,901.35) | $3,469,309.80 | ||||
| Running totals | |||||||||
| $30,245,695.16 | $(51,818,327.48) | ||||||||
Warren raised $12.1 million in the third quarter and has $7.3 million cash on hand. However, her lower cash on hand total is due to pre-paying for over $3 million of TV ads for the final three weeks of the campaign.[35]
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in Massachusetts, 2012
- United States Senate elections, 2012
External links
References
- ↑ Politico "2012 Election Map, Massachusetts"
- ↑ Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts "Voter Registration Information," Accessed July 25, 2012
- ↑ Massachusetts Elections Division "2012 Massachusetts State Primary and State Election Schedule," retrieved March 5, 2012
- ↑ OnPolitix "Primary date to stay put despite mix-up," January 5, 2012
- ↑ The Hill "Opinion: Republicans facing longer odds in bid to gain Senate control," October 8, 2012
- ↑ Huffington Post "Elizabeth Warren Senate Race," January 20, 2012
- ↑ Democratic primary candidates
- ↑ Boston Herald "Democrat Herb Robinson to drop out of Senate race to run for House," December 16, 2011
- ↑ MassLive "Warren knocks DeFranco off ballot" June 21, 2012
- ↑ Huffington Post "Scott Brown 2012 Campaign Officially Starts," January 19, 2012
- ↑ Elections Division, State of Massachusetts "Special Election Results, January 19, 2010"
- ↑ The New York Times, "2012 Ratings Senate," accessed September 17, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "Our Accuracy," Accessed December 12, 2011
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," November 1, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," October 4, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," September 13, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," August 21, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," July 12, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," May 31, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," May 10, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," March 22, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," March 1, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," January 26, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," December 27, 2011
- ↑ Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," December 1, 2011
- ↑ 26.0 26.1 26.2 Center for Politics "Tilting the Toss Ups – the Eight Races That Will Decide the Senate" Accessed April 9, 2012
- ↑ Elections Division, State of Massachusetts "Special Election Results, January 19, 2010"
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 4, 2008"
- ↑ Federal Election Commission "Scott Brown Summary Report," Accessed November 2, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission "Scott Brown April Quarterly," Accessed August 1, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission "Scott Brown July Quarterly," Accessed August 1, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission "Scott Brown Pre-Primary," Accessed November 2, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission "Scott Brown October Quarterly," Accessed November 2, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission Scott Brown Pre-General," Accessed November 2, 2012
- ↑ 35.0 35.1 Boston.com, "Elizabeth Warren raises $12.1 million, Scott Brown $7.45 million, in latest Senate campaign quarter," October 15, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission "Elizabeth Warren Summary Report," Accessed June 26, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission "April Quarterly" Accessed June 27, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission "July Quarterly" Accessed June 27, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission "Pre-Primary," Accessed November 2, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission "October Quarterly," Accessed November 2, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission "Pre-General," Accessed November 2, 2012
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