Arkansas' 4th Congressional District election, 2020
- Election date: Nov. 3
- Registration deadline(s): Oct. 5
- Online registration: No
- Same-day registration: No
- Recount laws
- Early voting starts: Oct. 19
- Absentee/mail voting deadline(s): Nov. 3 (received)
- Processing, counting, and challenging absentee/mail-in ballots
- Voter ID: Photo ID
- Poll times: 7:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m.
2022 →
← 2018
|
| Arkansas' 4th Congressional District |
|---|
 |
| Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
| Election details |
| Filing deadline: November 11, 2019 |
| Primary: March 3, 2020 Primary runoff: March 31, 2020 General: November 3, 2020 Pre-election incumbent: Bruce Westerman (Republican) |
| How to vote |
| Poll times: 7:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. Voting in Arkansas |
| Race ratings |
Inside Elections: Solid Republican Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican |
| Ballotpedia analysis |
| U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020 |
| See also |
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th Arkansas elections, 2020 U.S. Congress elections, 2020 U.S. Senate elections, 2020 U.S. House elections, 2020 |
All U.S. congressional districts, including the 4th Congressional District of Arkansas, held elections in 2020.
Incumbent Bruce Westerman won election in the general election for U.S. House Arkansas District 4.
| Candidate filing deadline | Primary election | General election |
|---|---|---|
Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican Bruce Westerman, who was first elected in 2014.
The 4th Congressional District is located in southwestern Arkansas. The district includes Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Columbia, Dallas, Drew, Franklin, Garland, Grant, Hempstead, Hot Spring, Howard, Johnson, Lafayette, Little River, Logan, Madison, Miller, Montgomery, Nevada, Ouachita, Pike, Polk, Scott, Sevier, Union, and Yell counties and portions of Crawford, Jefferson, Newton, and Sebastian counties.[1]
Post-election analysis
The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.
| Presidential and congressional election results, Arkansas' 4th Congressional District, 2020 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Race | Presidential | U.S. House |
Democratic candidate  |
29.6 | 27.5 |
Republican candidate  |
67.7 | 69.7 |
| Difference | 38.1 | 42.2 |
Election procedure changes in 2020
Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.
Arkansas modified its absentee/mail-in voting procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:
- Absentee/mail-in voting: Voters in the general election could cite concerns over COVID-19 as a valid excuse for voting absentee.
For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.
Candidates and election results
General election
General election for U.S. House Arkansas District 4
Incumbent Bruce Westerman defeated William Hanson and Frank Gilbert in the general election for U.S. House Arkansas District 4 on November 3, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ |  | Bruce Westerman (R) | 69.7 | 191,617 |
 | William Hanson (D)  | 27.5 | 75,750 | |
 | Frank Gilbert (L) | 2.8 | 7,668 | |
| Total votes: 275,035 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Democratic primary election
The Democratic primary election was canceled. William Hanson advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Arkansas District 4.
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
Republican primary election
The Republican primary election was canceled. Incumbent Bruce Westerman advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Arkansas District 4.
Pivot Counties
- See also: Pivot Counties by state
One of 75 Arkansas counties—1.33 percent—is a Pivot County. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
| Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Trump margin of victory in 2016 | Obama margin of victory in 2012 | Obama margin of victory in 2008 | ||||
| Woodruff County, Arkansas | 8.91% | 4.21% | 7.46% | ||||
In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Arkansas with 60.6 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 33.7 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Arkansas voted Democratic 66.67 percent of the time and Republican 30 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Arkansas voted Republican all five times.
District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+17, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 17 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Arkansas' 4th Congressional District the 67th most Republican nationally.[2]
FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.97. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.97 points toward that party.[3]
Campaign finance
This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[4] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[5] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruce Westerman | Republican Party | $1,428,508 | $1,123,312 | $976,806 | As of December 31, 2020 |
| William Hanson | Democratic Party | $109,767 | $111,683 | $-1,916 | As of December 31, 2020 |
| Frank Gilbert | Libertarian Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
|
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
|||||
Race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[6]
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[7][8][9]
| Race ratings: Arkansas' 4th Congressional District election, 2020 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
| November 3, 2020 | October 27, 2020 | October 20, 2020 | October 13, 2020 | ||||||
| The Cook Political Report | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | |||||
| Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | |||||
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | |||||
| Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season. | |||||||||
Candidate ballot access
The table below details filing requirements for 4th Congressional District candidates in Arkansas in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Arkansas, click here.
| Filing requirements, 2020 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Office | Party | Signatures required | Signature formula | Filing fee | Filing fee formula | Filing deadline | Source |
| Arkansas | 4th Congressional District | Democratic | N/A | N/A | $10,000.00 | Fixed number | 11/12/2019 | Source |
| Arkansas | 4th Congressional District | Republican | N/A | N/A | $15,000.00 | Fixed number | 11/12/2019 | Source |
| Arkansas | 4th Congressional District | Unaffiliated | 2,000 | 3% of votes cast for governor in the last election in the district, not to exceed 2,000 | N/A | N/A | 5/1/2020 | Source |
District election history
2018
General election
General election for U.S. House Arkansas District 4
Incumbent Bruce Westerman defeated Hayden Shamel and Tom Canada in the general election for U.S. House Arkansas District 4 on November 6, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Bruce Westerman (R) | 66.7 | 136,740 |
 | Hayden Shamel (D) | 31.2 | 63,984 | |
 | Tom Canada (L) | 1.9 | 3,952 | |
| Other/Write-in votes | 0.1 | 216 | ||
| Total votes: 204,892 (100.00% precincts reporting) | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Lee McQueen (Independent)
- Jack Foster (Independent)
Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House Arkansas District 4
Hayden Shamel advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Arkansas District 4 on May 22, 2018.
Candidate | ||
| ✔ | | Hayden Shamel |
| ||||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Richard Davis (D)
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Arkansas District 4
Incumbent Bruce Westerman defeated Randy Caldwell in the Republican primary for U.S. House Arkansas District 4 on May 22, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Bruce Westerman | 79.8 | 40,201 |
 | Randy Caldwell | 20.2 | 10,151 | |
| Total votes: 50,352 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
2016
Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Bruce Westerman (R) and Kerry Hicks (L) ran unopposed in their respective primaries. Westerman defeated Hicks in the general election on November 8, 2016. No Democratic candidates filed to run for the seat.[10][11]
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican |  Bruce Westerman Incumbent |
74.9% | 182,885 | |
| Libertarian | Kerry Hicks | 25.1% | 61,274 | |
| Total Votes | 244,159 | |||
| Source: Arkansas Secretary of State | ||||
2014
The 4th Congressional District of Arkansas held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Tom Cotton did not seek re-election in 2014. He ran for election to the U.S. Senate instead. Bruce Westerman (R) defeated James Lee Witt (D) and Ken Hamilton (L) in the general election.
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Bruce Westerman |
53.7% | 110,789 | |
| Democratic | James Lee Witt | 42.6% | 87,742 | |
| Libertarian | Ken Hamilton | 3.7% | 7,598 | |
| N/A | Write-in | 0% | 2 | |
| Total Votes | 206,131 | |||
| Source: Arkansas Secretary of State | ||||
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in Arkansas, 2020
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2020
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ United States Census Bureau, "Counties by Congressional Districts," accessed June 8, 2016
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
- ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
- ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
- ↑ Arkansas Secretary of State, "Candidate Information," accessed November 10, 2015
- ↑ CNN, "Election Results," accessed November 8, 2016
