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Connecticut's 5th Congressional District election, 2020

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2022
2018
Connecticut's 5th Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: June 11, 2020
Primary: August 11, 2020
General: November 3, 2020

Pre-election incumbent:
Jahana Hayes (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in Connecticut
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Connecticut's 5th Congressional District
1st2nd3rd4th5th
Connecticut elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 5th Congressional District of Connecticut, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Jahana Hayes won election in the general election for U.S. House Connecticut District 5.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
June 11, 2020
August 11, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Democrat Jahana Hayes, who was first elected in 2018.

Connecticut's 5th Congressional District is located in the northwestern portion of the state. Portions of Fairfield, Hartford, Litchfield and New Haven counties are included in the district.[1]

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Connecticut's 5th Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 54.6 55.1
Republican candidate Republican Party 43.9 43.5
Difference 10.7 11.6

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Connecticut modified its absentee/mail-in voting and candidate filing procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: Absentee/mail-in ballot applications were sent to all registered voters in the general election. Voters could cite concern over COVID-19 as a reason for voting absentee in the general election.
  • Candidate filing procedures: The filing deadlines for major-party and unaffiliated candidates were extended by two days, to June 11, 2020, and August 7, 2020, respectively.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

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Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Connecticut District 5

Incumbent Jahana Hayes defeated David Xavier Sullivan and Bruce Walczak in the general election for U.S. House Connecticut District 5 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Jahana Hayes
Jahana Hayes (D / Working Families Party)
 
55.1
 
192,484
Image of David Xavier Sullivan
David Xavier Sullivan (R)
 
43.5
 
151,988
Image of Bruce Walczak
Bruce Walczak (Independent Party)
 
1.4
 
5,052

Total votes: 349,524
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Democratic primary election

The Democratic primary election was canceled. Incumbent Jahana Hayes advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Connecticut District 5.

Republican primary election

The Republican primary election was canceled. David Xavier Sullivan advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Connecticut District 5.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

One of eight Connecticut counties—12.5 percent—is a Pivot County. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Windham County, Connecticut 7.78% 13.28% 14.68%

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Connecticut with 54.6 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 40.9 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Connecticut voted Republican 53.33 percent of the time and Democratic 46.67 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Connecticut voted Democratic all five times.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Connecticut. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[2][3]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 120 out of 151 state House districts in Connecticut with an average margin of victory of 30.3 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 105 out of 151 state House districts in Connecticut with an average margin of victory of 30.9 points. Clinton won 32 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 31 out of 151 state House districts in Connecticut with an average margin of victory of 8.6 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 46 out of 151 state House districts in Connecticut with an average margin of victory of 11.6 points. Trump won seven districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+2, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 2 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made Connecticut's 5th Congressional District the 186th most Democratic nationally.[4]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.03. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.03 points toward that party.[5]

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[6]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[7][8][9]

Race ratings: Connecticut's 5th Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

District election history

2018

See also: Connecticut's 5th Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Connecticut District 5

Jahana Hayes defeated Manny Santos in the general election for U.S. House Connecticut District 5 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Jahana Hayes
Jahana Hayes (D)
 
55.9
 
151,225
Image of Manny Santos
Manny Santos (R)
 
44.1
 
119,426
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.0
 
13

Total votes: 270,664
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Connecticut District 5

Jahana Hayes defeated Mary Glassman in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Connecticut District 5 on August 14, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Jahana Hayes
Jahana Hayes
 
62.3
 
24,693
Image of Mary Glassman
Mary Glassman
 
37.7
 
14,964

Total votes: 39,657
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Connecticut District 5

Manny Santos defeated Ruby Corby O'Neill and Rich DuPont in the Republican primary for U.S. House Connecticut District 5 on August 14, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Manny Santos
Manny Santos
 
52.4
 
16,816
Image of Ruby Corby O'Neill
Ruby Corby O'Neill
 
26.2
 
8,419
Image of Rich DuPont
Rich DuPont
 
21.4
 
6,863

Total votes: 32,098
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

2016

See also: Connecticut's 5th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Democratic. Incumbent Elizabeth Esty (D) defeated Clay Cope (R), Stephanie Piddock (I), and John Pistone (I) in the general election on November 8, 2016. No candidate faced a primary election in August. Cope defeated John Pistone and Matt Maxwell at the Republican convention. Esty won re-election in the November 8 election.[10][11][12]

U.S. House, Connecticut District 5 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngElizabeth Esty Incumbent 58% 179,252
     Republican Clay Cope 42% 129,801
     N/A Write-in 0% 29
Total Votes 309,082
Source: Connecticut Secretary of State

2014

See also: Connecticut's 5th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 5th Congressional District of Connecticut held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Elizabeth Esty (D) defeated Mark Greenberg (R) and John Pistone (I) in the general election.

U.S. House, Connecticut District 5 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngElizabeth Esty Incumbent 53.2% 113,564
     Republican Mark Greenberg 45.8% 97,767
     Independent John Pistone 0.9% 1,970
Total Votes 213,301
Source: Connecticut Secretary of the State

See also

External links

Footnotes


Senators
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
Jim Himes (D)
District 5
Democratic Party (7)