How do major media outlets declare winners? (2020)
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Millions of Americans tuned into major news media and monitored social media outlets on Election Day to see who declared the winners. Here’s how major outlets used exit polling, online surveys, turnout numbers, voting patterns, and election return trends to project winners and communicate those announcements.
Click the links below to see what major media outlets said about their methodology for calling elections in 2020:
Associated Press
The Associated Press wrote:
| “ | [AP analysts and race callers] are looking at far more than just the overall vote totals. They study the incoming vote county by county. In states where the information is available, they look at the vote by type of ballot: cast in person on Election Day, or in advance by mail or in person. They are also in constant contact with AP’s vote count team, in search of the latest information about what’s been counted so far and how many ballots may still be left to count.
Not all races are closely contested. In some states, a party or candidate’s past history of consistent and convincing wins – by a wide margin – make a race eligible to be declared as soon as polls close. In these states, we use results from AP VoteCast to confirm a candidate has won. To be sure, AP will not call the winner of a race before all the polls close in a jurisdiction.[1][2] |
” |
ABC News
Dan Merkle of ABC News said:
| “ | On Election Day, there is a strict embargo on any data coming from the early waves of exit poll data until 5 p.m. ET. By about 5:45 p.m., some initial demographic information about voters and their views on key issues in the election will be available on ABCNews.com. After the polls close in a state, the complete exit poll crosstabs will be posted on ABCNews.com.
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” |
NBC News
According to John Lapinski, Director of the Elections Unit at NBC News:
| “ | [NBC] will project an individual race when it is at least 99.5% confident a candidate has won. If [NBC’s elections team] finds that state reported all or almost all their ballots on election night, and a candidate has won decisively according to their statistical projections, NBC will project that outcome. ... And in those instances, [they] will not call those races if they can’t get to 270 electoral votes and meet their polling standards. 'We don't call close races off of exit polls.'[4][2] | ” |
CBS News
Anthony Salvanto, CBS News Director of Elections and Surveys, said:
| “ | We'll take all the states and tell you which ones we're really certain about, and which ones we still need to wait for, and we'll be real transparent about that. ... Even if we don't have all the information yet, we will show you and illustrate for you what we do know, and if we have to wait, then we have to wait.[5][2] | ” |
Politico
According to Politico:
| “ | [Politico] has traditionally called a race either when The Associated Press or three TV outlets project a victor.[6][2] | ” |
CNN
CNN Washington Bureau Chief Sam Feist said:
| “ | When there's enough votes in a particular state to give the decision team the confidence that that person is going to win, then they can announce a projection. ... We tend to make projections early on election night if the race is not close particularly in those battleground states, [but] it is entirely possible that there won't be a projection on election night. ... If we have not projected enough states for a candidate to get to 270 electoral votes, and a candidate comes out and declares victory, we will make it clear that the facts do not back up that claim of victory. ... There are a number of things we are looking for in each state to have confidence in a projection. Most important is what's been counted: Where are the votes coming from geographically within the state, what types of votes are included in the count, and how much of the total vote does the count represent right now?[7][2] | ” |
Fox News
Arnon Mishkin, director of the Fox News Decision Desk, said:
| “ | We met as a team here at Fox and developed what we thought would be a different way of approaching a ‘voter x-ray,’ if you will — sort of understanding the voters. And we thought, let's do sort of a combination of a phone and internet poll across the country in the days before an election, which we thought would be the same tool for covering early voters, Election Day voters, and mail-in or absentee voters. ... The timing of the call is going to be a function of how wide the margin is between the two candidates, and not just in the presidency, but also in the various other statewide races. In the event that there's a wide margin, I think all of the networks are going to be able to make a call fairly quickly. In the event that the margin is much closer, you won't be able to make that call because you won't be able to see if there's a difference until later in the evening — and that's true in any election.[8][2] | ” |
Guy Rosen, Facebook VP of Integrity, wrote:
| “ | When polls close, we will run a notification at the top of Facebook and Instagram and apply labels to candidates’ posts directing people to the Voting Information Center for more information about the vote-counting process. But, if a candidate or party declares premature victory before a race is called by major media outlets, we will add more specific information in the notifications that counting is still in progress and no winner has been determined. If the candidate that is declared the winner by major media outlets is contested by another candidate or party, we will show the name of the declared winning candidate with notifications at the top of Facebook and Instagram, as well as label posts from presidential candidates, with the declared winner’s name and a link to the Voting Information Center.[9][2] | ” |
Vijaya Gadde and Kayvon Beykpour of Twitter said:
| “ | People on Twitter, including candidates for office, may not claim an election win before it is authoritatively called. To determine the results of an election in the US, we require either an announcement from state election officials, or a public projection from at least two authoritative, national news outlets that make independent election calls. Tweets which include premature claims will be labeled and direct people to our official US election page.[10][2] | ” |
Sources of data for projecting winners
Edison Research's "National Election Pool" will make race projections for the 435 U.S. House races in addition to statewide races and ballot measures. NEP uses exit poll interviews with voters immediately after they leave the polling place, and a combination of phone surveys and in-person interviews with absentee and early voters. News outlets partnering with Edison Research and NEP in 2020 are ABC News, CBS News, CNN, and NBC News.[11]
AP's VoteCast uses a combination of methodologies for election day voters, including an online panel, phone interviews, and online surveys. For absentee and early voters, VoteCast uses online panel surveys and phone interviews. Partnering with AP on VoteCast in the 2020 election are Fox News (through Fox News’s Voter Analysis System), NPR, Univision and PBS.[12]
Additional commentary
- Sally Buzbee, AP Senior Vice President and Executive Editor, said:
| “ | Calling races, from the national level to state legislatures, is a vital function the AP provides to its members and customers. Being able to accurately and quickly call those statewide and state-level races is critical to their ability to provide strong election night coverage.[13][2] | ” |
- Caitlin Conant, CBS News political director, said:
| “ | On election night itself we just have to be extremely transparent and clear and explain to viewers what we know, why we know it and potentially, more importantly, what we don’t know and why we don’t know it, so that we are very clear with what is happening throughout the night, and potentially days. I think this year has taught us that we need to be flexible on a lot of things that are out of our hands. This is one of them.[2] | ” |
- Chris Stirewalt, Fox News politics editor, said:
| “ | I think it would be a serious mistake to assume that there will be a disaster. But I also think it would be a serious mistake not to prepare for a disaster. This is hillbilly optimism, which is you hope for the best but you plan for the worst. That’s what we’ve done.[2] | ” |
- Sam Feist, CNN Washington Bureau Chief, said:
| “ | If everything that's been counted is absentee and early votes, or all Election Day votes, there won't be a clear picture of how all the votes will look when both types of vote are included. Some of both are needed for projections in closer races. ... If there's a clear lead for one candidate in the current count, but none of the votes from the strongest part of the state for the trailing candidate aren't in yet, that margin likely won't hold up. If instead there is good geographic representation in the vote, that's a point in favor of a projection.[2] | ” |
- Stephen Pettigrew, senior analyst for the NBC News Decision Desk, said:
| “ | We wait for real votes, and we wait until we have enough real votes to characterize the race.[2] | ” |
- John Lapinski, Director of Elections Unit at NBC News, said:
| “ | There is no eagerness. Everybody wants to be able to project the election when we know for sure who has won and when we can. If that's on election night, so be it. If it's not on election night because the race is closer and states haven't counted the vote, so be it. No one is going to jump on a bad call.[2] | ” |
- Susan Zirinsky, CBS News President, said:
| “ | As we prepare for one of the most complicated Election Nights in presidential history, we will bring the strength of our reporting team and the most in-depth voter information and polling from all 50 states to give audiences around the world an accurate assessment of the state of the race. We’re committed to being transparent, telling viewers in real time what we know, when we know it and how we know it.[2] | ” |
- Noah Oppenheim, NBC News President, said:
| “ | [Election night] is not going to be about storylines or narratives or projections or predictions. It’s going to be about: ‘What do we know in any given moment?’ and staying firmly focused on only those facts.[2] | ” |
- David Chalian, CNN Political Director, said:
| “ | Given the dramatic increase in absentee and vote by mail votes that will be part of this year’s election, it will be all that much more important (to) remain transparent with the viewers and readers at all times about what that vote count represents.[2] | ” |
The 2020 election took place against a backdrop of uncertainty. Our readers had questions about what to expect in elections at all levels of government, from the casting of ballots to the certification of final results. Ballotpedia's 2020 Election Help Desk was designed to answer those questions.
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See also
Related articles
- NBC News, "Big responsibility': In 2020, even armchair election analysts see little room for error," October 27, 2020
- New York Magazine," "Will Fox News Save Democracy With an Accurate Election Night Call?" September 29, 2020
- Los Angeles Times, "Meet Arnon Mishkin, the Fox News analyst who will call the winner of the election," October 19, 2020
- Reuters, "U.S. TV news networks aim for credibility, not speed, on election night," October 12, 2020
Footnotes
- ↑ Associated Press, "How We Call Races," accessed October 28, 2020
- ↑ 2.00 2.01 2.02 2.03 2.04 2.05 2.06 2.07 2.08 2.09 2.10 2.11 2.12 2.13 2.14 2.15 2.16 2.17 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
- ↑ ABC News, "What you need to know about Election Day exit polls," October 27, 2020
- ↑ Daily Pennsylvanian, "Penn’s election experts claim media outlets will responsibly call the presidential race," October 23, 2020
- ↑ CBS News, "How CBS News Will Be Calling States on Election Night and Afterward," October 7, 2020
- ↑ Politico, "Watchdogs demand election night clarity from the media," October 17, 2020
- ↑ CNN, "It's not magic, it's math. Here's how CNN makes election projections," October 17, 2020
- ↑ Business Insider, "The Fox News Decision Desk director explains how races will be called on election night," October 19, 2020
- ↑ Facebook, "Preparing for Election Day," October 7, 2020
- ↑ Twitter, "Additional steps we're taking ahead of the 2020 US Election," October 9, 2020
- ↑ Edison Research, "Election Day Coverage," accessed October 28, 2020
- ↑ Associated Press, "AP VoteCast," accessed October 28, 2020
- ↑ Associated Press, "Election Services," accessed October 28, 2020
