Your feedback ensures we stay focused on the facts that matter to you most—take our survey.
Jacob Soto
Jacob Soto (independent) ran for election to the U.S. House to represent New York's 3rd Congressional District. He did not appear on the ballot for the general election on November 5, 2024.
2024 battleground election
Ballotpedia identified the November 5, 2024, general election as a battleground race. The summary below is from our coverage of this election, found here.
Incumbent Tom Suozzi (D) defeated Michael LiPetri Jr. (R) in the general election for New York's 3rd Congressional District on November 5, 2024. Click here for detailed results.
Suozzi was elected to the district in the February 2024 special election.
According to AP's Anthony Izaguirre, Long Island voters, including those in the 3rd District, had "an outsized role in choosing which party controls Congress. Democrats are just a few seats shy of winning a majority in the U.S. House and the island, just a train ride from liberal Manhattan, has emerged as an improbable stage for some of the most contested races this year."[1]
Following elections in 2022, Republicans represented all four of Long Island's congressional districts. Izaguirre wrote that Republicans "seized momentum by harnessing suburban backlash over progressive policies in New York City, casting themselves as a dam that can stop the left from swamping Long Island with liberal excess."[1] In 2024, Suozzi campaigned as a centrist focusing on immigration and border security in the February special election for the 3rd District.[2] Former Incumbent George Santos (R) was expelled from Congress on December 1, 2023. Suozzi won the election, defeating Mazi Pilip (R) 53.9%-45.9%.
Suozzi campaigned as a centrist in the regular election as well. Izaguirre said this approach fit with New York Democrats "gearing their political strategy toward moderates."[1] Changes to strategy weren't unique to Democrats, however. University at Albany Professor Sally Friedman said, "In New York, Republicans and Democrats are campaigning on the hyperlocal issues and focusing on those topics that matter most in their districts. ... Suburban and rural areas of the state are typically filled with more centrist and independent voters, so zeroing in on local issues can be a winning strategy."[3] Suozzi, for example, emphasized issues such as immigration on X, formerly known as Twitter.[4] According to the LI Herald, "LiPetri’s platform focuses on ... decreasing crime, ensuring affordability, and protecting the quality of life for residents."[5]
Suozzi represented an earlier version of the district from 2017 to 2023 and was a candidate for governor of New York in the 2022 Democratic primary. He said through bipartisanship "we can offer solutions to secure the border, protect our neighborhoods, and provide real tax relief."[6]
LiPetri served in the New York State Assembly, representing District 9, from 2019 to 2021. According to the LI Herald, LiPetri "cited his support for law enforcement, advocacy for immigration reform, and efforts to promote affordability on Long Island as some of the main issues he hoped to address during the campaign and if elected."[5]
Before the election, four major election forecasters differed in their ratings for the general election, with three rating it Likely Democratic and one rating it Solid Democratic.
Based on fourth-quarter reports filed with the Federal Election Commission, Suozzi raised $9.6 million and spent $7.7 million, and LiPetri raised $969,047 and spent $969,047. To review all the campaign finance figures in full detail, click here.
This was one of 13 districts won by Donald Trump (R) in the 2024 presidential election and by a Democratic candidate in the U.S. House election. To read more, click here.
Elections
2024
See also: New York's 3rd Congressional District election, 2024
New York's 3rd Congressional District election, 2024 (June 25 Republican primary)
New York's 3rd Congressional District election, 2024 (June 25 Democratic primary)
General election
General election for U.S. House New York District 3
Incumbent Tom Suozzi defeated Michael LiPetri Jr. in the general election for U.S. House New York District 3 on November 5, 2024.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ |  | Tom Suozzi (D / Common Sense Party) | 51.7 | 187,651 |
 | Michael LiPetri Jr. (R / Conservative Party) | 48.1 | 174,693 | |
| Other/Write-in votes | 0.2 | 780 | ||
| Total votes: 363,124 | |||
 = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Matthew Nappo (Independent)
- Jacob Soto (Independent)
Democratic primary election
The Democratic primary election was canceled. Incumbent Tom Suozzi advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House New York District 3.
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Austin Cheng (D)
- William Murphy (D)
- Darius Radzius (D)
- Joshua Lafazan (D)
- Anna Kaplan (D)
- Zak Malamed (D)
- Scott Livingston (D)
- Steve Behar (D)
Republican primary election
The Republican primary election was canceled. Michael LiPetri Jr. advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House New York District 3.
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Daniel Norber (R)
- Philip Grillo (R)
- Kellen Curry (R)
- Peter Christofides (R)
- George Devolder-Santos (R)
- Mike Sapraicone (R)
- Michael Mandel (R)
- Harvey Manes (R)
- Gregory Hach (R)
- Bill Cotter (R)
- Jim Toes (R)
- Thomas Ludwig (R)
Conservative Party primary election
The Conservative Party primary election was canceled. Michael LiPetri Jr. advanced from the Conservative Party primary for U.S. House New York District 3.
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Daniel Foti (Conservative Party)
Polls
- See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
Polls are conducted with a variety of methodologies and have margins of error or credibility intervals.[7] The Pew Research Center wrote, "A margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level means that if we fielded the same survey 100 times, we would expect the result to be within 3 percentage points of the true population value 95 of those times."[8] For tips on reading polls from FiveThirtyEight, click here. For tips from Pew, click here.
The links below show polls for this race aggregated by FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, where available. Click here to read about FiveThirtyEight's criteria for including polls in its aggregation.
Election campaign finance
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Suozzi | Common Sense Party, Democratic Party | $9,646,883 | $7,675,778 | $2,034,341 | As of December 31, 2024 |
| Michael LiPetri Jr. | Republican Party, Conservative Party | $969,048 | $960,069 | $15,790 | As of December 31, 2024 |
|
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2024. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
|||||
Satellite spending
- See also: Satellite spending
Satellite spending describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[9][10][11]
If available, this section includes links to online resources tracking satellite spending in this election. To notify us of a resource to add, email us.
| By candidate | By election |
|---|---|
Race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[12]
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[13][14][15]
| Race ratings: New York's 3rd Congressional District election, 2024 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
| November 5, 2024 | October 29, 2024 | October 22, 2024 | October 15, 2024 | ||||||
| The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter | Likely Democratic | Likely Democratic | Likely Democratic | Likely Democratic | |||||
| Decision Desk HQ and The Hill | Likely Democratic | Likely Democratic | Likely Democratic | Likely Democratic | |||||
| Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | |||||
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely Democratic | Likely Democratic | Likely Democratic | Likely Democratic | |||||
| Note: Ballotpedia reviews external race ratings every week throughout the election season and posts weekly updates even if the media outlets have not revised their ratings during that week. | |||||||||
Endorsements
Ballotpedia did not identify endorsements for Soto in this election.
Campaign themes
2024
Ballotpedia survey responses
See also: Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection
Jacob Soto did not complete Ballotpedia's 2024 Candidate Connection survey.
Campaign finance summary
Note: The finance data shown here comes from the disclosures required of candidates and parties. Depending on the election or state, this may represent only a portion of all the funds spent on their behalf. Satellite spending groups may or may not have expended funds related to the candidate or politician on whose page you are reading this disclaimer. Campaign finance data from elections may be incomplete. For elections to federal offices, complete data can be found at the FEC website. Click here for more on federal campaign finance law and here for more on state campaign finance law.
See also
2024 Elections
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 AP, "On Long Island, Republicans defend an unlikely stronghold as races could tip control of Congress," August 8, 2024
- ↑ The Washington Post, "Democrat Tom Suozzi leaned into immigration. He says Harris should too.," August 2, 2024
- ↑ ABC News, "All eyes on New York's congressional races as key House seats at play," June 19, 2024
- ↑ X, "Tom Suozzi," August 14, 2024
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 LI Herald, "Former state assemblyman Mike LiPetri declares candidacy for New York's Third Congressional District," April 25, 2024
- ↑ Suozzi 2024 campaign website, "What It Could Be," February 6, 2024
- ↑ For more information on the difference between margins of error and credibility intervals, see explanations from the American Association for Public Opinion Research and Ipsos.
- ↑ Pew Research Center, "5 key things to know about the margin of error in election polls," September 8, 2016
- ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed December 12, 2021
- ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed December 12, 2021
- ↑ National Review.com, "Why the Media Hate Super PACs," December 12, 2021
- ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
