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Kentucky's 4th Congressional District election, 2020 (June 23 Republican primary)

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Kentucky's 4th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: January 10, 2020
Primary: June 23, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Thomas Massie (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 6 p.m.
Voting in Kentucky
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Kentucky's 4th Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th
Kentucky elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

Incumbent Thomas Massie defeated challenger Todd McMurtry in the Republican primary for Kentucky's 4th Congressional District on June 23, 2020. Massie received 81% of the vote to McMurtry's 19%. This was Massie's first contested primary since he was elected in 2012.

In addition to referencing ideological differences, the candidates focused on how they would or had supported President Donald Trump (R) and how their opponent would not.

Massie described himself as a constitutional conservative and said, "The role of government is to preserve our God-given individual rights to life, liberty, and property."[3][4] He said that he "found occasions to go a different tact than my party and a lot of times that's because my party's not being conservative."[5]

McMurtry said he ran "to be a conservative whose votes Kentucky can finally rely on."[6] Regarding reliability, he said, "Simply voting 'No' on everything accomplishes nothing."[7] McMurtry touted his role as an attorney representing a Covington Catholic High School student in a defamation lawsuit against CNN.[8]

President Donald Trump won 65.2% of the vote in the 4th District in the 2016 presidential election. Both candidates argued that they supported the president and that their opponent opposed him.[9] Massie said he supported President Trump during the 2016 election and that he "vigorously defended [Trump] against the impeachment sham."[10] He argued that McMurtry disliked the president and released an ad that included Facebook comments from McMurtry that were critical of Trump.[11] McMurtry said he would support President Trump.[12] He argued that Massie opposed the president and released an campaign ad that said, "Massie votes against Trump more than nearly every Republican in Congress."[13]

Media coverage of the race increased at the end of March following Massie's opposition to a voice vote rather than recorded vote for the CARES Act, a $2 trillion measure in response to the coronavirus pandemic.[14] Massie defended his objection, saying, "if we're going to pass the biggest spending bill in the history of mankind ... people should go on record for this."[15] Regarding Massie's opposition, McMurtry tweeted, "People's livelihoods are at stake while he's playing political games. His top priority is to make himself the purest Libertarian politician in the House while failing to deliver results for Kentuckians."[16] To read more about this event, click here.

Three race-tracking outlets rated the general election Safe or Solid Republican, as of the primary, and Democrats held a 232-197 majority in the U.S. House. Click here to learn more about what's at stake in the general election.

Click on candidate names below to view their key messages:


Massie
McMurtry


This page focuses on Kentucky's 4th Congressional District Republican primary. For more in-depth information on the district's Democratic primary and the general election, see the following pages:

Democratic Party Kentucky's 4th Congressional District election, 2020 (June 23 Democratic primary)
Independent Kentucky's 4th Congressional District election, 2020

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Kentucky modified its primary election process as follows:

  • Election postponements: The primary election was postponed from May 19, 2020, to June 23.
  • Voting procedures: Absentee voting eligibility was extended to all voters in the primary election.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.


Candidates and election results

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Kentucky District 4

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Thomas Massie
Thomas Massie
 
81.0
 
68,591
Image of Todd McMurtry
Todd McMurtry
 
19.0
 
16,092

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 84,683
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Candidate profiles

This section includes candidate profiles created in one of two ways. Either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey or Ballotpedia staff created a profile after identifying the candidate as noteworthy.[17] Ballotpedia staff compiled profiles based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements.

Thomas Massie

Image of Thomas Massie

WebsiteFacebookTwitter

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: Yes

Political Office: 

U.S. Representative (Assumed office: 2012)

Lewis County judge-executive (2010-2012)

Biography:  Massie received a B.S. from Massachusetts Institute of Technology (M.I.T.) in 1993 followed by an M.S. at M.I.T. in 1996. While in school, he founded SensAble Technologies, Inc. based on technology he invented. He later returned to Kentucky where he began to farm cattle.


Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.

Massie said he would defend the Constitution and said, "The role of government is to preserve our God-given individual rights to life, liberty, and property."

Massie said, "I enthusiastically supported and voted for President Trump in 2016" and added, "I have vigorously defended him against the impeachment sham." He argued that McMurtry opposed Trump.

Massie said his position on the House Oversight Committee "puts him in a position to hold the federal government accountable to taxpayers."

Show sources

Sources: Facebook, "Thomas Massie for Congress," accessed April 6, 2020, Massie 2020 campaign website, "Issues," accessed April 6, 2020, YouTube, "Todd McMurtry | The Trump Hater," January 31, 2020; Congressman Thomas Massie, "Full Biography," accessed April 6, 2020, BioGuideRetro, "Massie, Thomas (1971-)," accessed April 6, 2020, The Daily Independent, "Lewis judge-executive files for congressional seat," January 31, 2012

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Kentucky District 4 in 2020.

Todd McMurtry

Image of Todd McMurtry

WebsiteFacebookTwitter

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: Fort Wright city commissioner (2008-2012)

Biography:  McMurtry graduated from Centre College in 1984 and later received his J.D. from the Salmon P. Chase College of Law at Northern Kentucky University. He began practicing at Hemmer DeFrank Wessels PLLC in 2015 with a focus on civil litigation, social media, defamation, and business divorce law.


Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.

McMurtry said, "Simply voting 'No' on everything accomplishes nothing. We need a problem solver," and argued that Massie did not deliver results for the 4th District.

McMurtry said he would help President Donald Trump and argued that Massie's procedural opposition to the 2020 CARES Act showed that Massie opposed the president.

McMurtry discussed his role representing a Covington Catholic High School student in a defamation lawsuit against CNN.

Show sources

Sources: McMurtry 2020 campaign website, "Issues," accessed April 6, 2020, YouTube, "Blowtorch," April 2, 2020, YouTube, "Support Trump. Dump Massie," February 4, 2020, Courier-Journal, "Attorney in Covington Catholic case challenges Rep. Thomas Massie in GOP primary," January 10, 2020, McMurtry 2020 campaign website, "About Todd," accessed April 6, 2020; LinkedIn, "Todd McMurtry," accessed April 6, 2020, Hemmer DeFrank Wessels, "Todd V. McMurtry," accessed April 6, 2020

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Kentucky District 4 in 2020.


Endorsements

This section lists endorsements issued in this election. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please email us.

Republican primary endorsements
Endorsement Massie McMurtry
Elected officials
Kentucky State Treasurer Allison Ball (R)[18] ✔
State Rep. Kevin Bratcher (R-29)[18] ✔
State Rep. Danny Bentley (R-98)[18] ✔
U.S. Representative Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.)[18] ✔
U.S. Representative Steve Chabot (R-Ohio)[18] ✔
U.S. Representative James Comer (R-Ky.)[18] ✔
U.S. Representative Warren Davidson (R-Ohio)[18] ✔
State Rep. Joseph Fischer (R-68)[18] ✔
U.S. Representative Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.)[18] ✔
U.S. Representative Louie Gohmert (R-Texas)[18] ✔
U.S. Representative Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.)[18] ✔
Kentucky State Auditor Mike Harmon (R)[18] ✔
State Sen. Ernie Harris (R-26)[18] ✔
State Rep. Mark Hart (R-78)[18] ✔
State Sen. Jimmy Higdon (R-14)[18] ✔
State Sen. Paul Hornback (R-20)[19] ✔[20]
U.S. Representative Jim Jordan (R-Ohio)[18] ✔
U.S. Senator Mike Lee (R-Utah)[18] ✔
State Rep. Savannah Maddox (R-61)[18] ✔
State Rep. Jerry Miller (R-36)[18] ✔
State Rep. Jason Nemes (R-33)[18] ✔
U.S. Senator Rand Paul (R-Ky.)[18] ✔
State Rep. Phillip Pratt (R-62)[18] ✔
State Rep. Rob Rothenburger (R-58)[18] ✔
Kentucky Commissioner of Agriculture Ryan Quarles (R)[18] ✔
U.S. Representative Chip Roy (R-Texas)[18] ✔
State Rep. Sal Santoro (R-60)[18] ✔
State Sen. John Schickel (R-11)[18] ✔
State Sen. William Schroder (R-24)[18] ✔
State Sen. Damon Thayer (R-17)[18] ✔
State Rep. James Tipton (R-53)[18] ✔
State Sen. Stephen West (R-27)[18] ✔
Individuals
White House chief of staff, Mark Meadows (R)[18] ✔[21]
Commentator Candace Owens[22] ✔
Former U.S. Representative Ron Paul (R-Texas)[18] ✔
Organizations
Club for Growth[23] ✔
National Association for Gun Rights[24] ✔
National Right to Life[25] ✔[26]


McMurtry received endorsements from two organizations—the Republican Jewish Coalition and Pro-Israel America—that were later rescinded. Click here to learn more.


Timeline

2020

Campaign themes

See also: Campaign themes

Republican Party Thomas Massie

Massie's campaign website stated the following:

“

Pro-Life

I believe that life begins at conception. I will vote against government funding of abortion services and will vote to defund Planned Parenthood. I believe no public money should ever be spent on abortion procedures, abortion pills, or embryonic stem cell research.

Defend Your Second Amendment Rights

Weapons bans and gun-free zones are unconstitutional. In speeches, legislation, and through my votes in Congress I continuously make the point that gun-free zones make law-abiding citizens less safe.

Defend the Constitution

The Government has no right to be snooping without a warrant through your digital records and communications any more than they do through your filing cabinet at home. I’ve also sought to protect American technology companies from being forced to create “backdoors” or introduce vulnerabilities to their security systems.

Support President Trump

I enthusiastically supported and voted for President Trump in 2016, I have vigorously defended him against the impeachment sham, and I will be working to re-elect him in 2020 as an Honorary State Chair of the 2020 Kentucky Trump Victory team.

Secure our Border and Build the Wall

I support President Trump’s efforts to stop illegal immigration and voted to fund the wall for the full amount requested by the President.

Fix the Broken Appropriations Process

Congress has recklessly given up its Constitutionally delegated “power of the purse.” I’ve urged Speakers Boehner, Ryan, and Pelosi to return to regular order, and I have voted against every single one of their Omnibus funding bills they have passed.

[35]

”
—Thomas Massie’s campaign website (2020)[36]


Republican Party Todd McMurtry

McMurtry's campaign website stated the following:

“

Jobs/Economy

Our American way of life is under assault by those who want to implement a socialist agenda, open our borders, and sign an economy-crippling Green New Deal. Fortunately, President Trump has fought back and produced real results for hardworking Kentuckians, but he’s had to do so largely without the support of our congressman. I will support a conservative agenda to help bring more and better-paying jobs to Kentucky.
This includes support for:
  • Strong trade deals that help bring jobs back home;
  • Skills training and workforce development initiatives to make sure fewer Kentuckians fall through the cracks of a changing economy;
  • Regulatory rollbacks that reduce the government’s size and scope; and
  • Lower taxes to keep more money in the hands of hardworking families.

Border Security

Liberals have made their priorities clear on immigration: open borders, sanctuary cities, taxpayer-funded healthcare for illegal immigrants, and amnesty. This is the wrong approach.
I will fight to secure the border, supporting efforts to increase technology and personnel as well as voting to invest in President Trump’s border wall proposal.
Only after our border is secure can we have a genuine and informed debate about the legal immigration reforms that are needed.

Healthcare

Kentucky’s 4th congressional district needs a congressman who is bold enough to vote to fully repeal Obamacare and replace it with a plan that puts patients first. I will be that voice for you in Congress.
Additionally, I will fight to reduce the skyrocketing cost of prescription drugs, work with the Trump administration to combat the opioid epidemic, preserve and protect Medicare, and work toward fundamentally reducing the cost of healthcare for Kentucky families.

Foreign Policy

This is a time of incredible volatility. America faces economic threats from China, terrorist threats from Iran, and cyber threats from Russia. As a member of the U.S. House, I will…
  • Promote a strong national defense;
  • Support our troops;
  • Stand with President Trump to impose sanctions on Iran, China, Russia, or any country that seeks to steal our intellectual capital or attack America and our allies;
  • Oppose the Palestinian-led Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions movement, which is crippling sectors of Israel’s economy; and
  • Support our ally Israel, recognizing it as a beacon of democracy in the Middle East and a critical security partner.

Constitutional Protections

Our constitutional values are under attack by the Left. As your representative, I will…
  • Defend the 2nd Amendment;
  • Protect life;
  • Support a Balanced Budget Amendment to the Constitution; and
  • Put America and her people first.

Why I'm Running

We need a U.S. Representative who is present and visible in our communities, which is why I will restore the superior level of constituent service we enjoyed under Representatives Jim Bunning and Geoff Davis. I’ll be a serious advocate for Kentucky’s 4th congressional district and will focus on delivering real results.
Simply voting ‘No’ on everything accomplishes nothing. We need a problem solver; we need someone who can work well with others to get things done. That’s why I am asking for your vote and support in the May 19 Republican primary.

[35]

”
—Todd McMurtry’s campaign website (2020)[37]


Campaign advertisements

This section shows advertisements released in this race. Ads released by campaigns and, if applicable, satellite groups are embedded or linked below. If you are aware of advertisements that should be included, please email us.

Republican Party Thomas Massie

Supporting Massie

"Fight of Our Lives" - Massie campaign ad, released April 6, 2020[32]

Opposing McMurtry

"Todd McMurtry

Republican Party Todd McMurtry


Opposing Massie

"Unemployment" - McMurtry campaign ad, released May 1, 2020[28]
"Blowtorch" - McMurtry campaign ad, released April 2, 2020[12]
"Support Trump. Dump Massie" - McMurtry campaign ad, released February 4, 2020

Satellite group ads

Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls

If you are aware of polls conducted in this race, please email us.

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[38] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[39] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Thomas Massie Republican Party $1,464,745 $1,570,704 $119,384 As of December 31, 2020
Todd McMurtry Republican Party $382,915 $382,915 $0 As of November 13, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Satellite spending

See also: Satellite spending

Satellite spending, commonly referred to as outside spending, describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[40][41][42]

This section lists satellite spending in this race reported by news outlets in alphabetical order. If you are aware of spending that should be included, please email us.

  • Civic spent $132,500 producing and promoting an ad opposing Massie.[27]
  • Club for Growth Action spent $155,317 opposing McMurtry.[27]
  • Club for Growth PAC spent at least $4,609.21 in support of Massie.[30]
  • FreedomWorks for America spent at least $48,537 supporting Massie in the form of door knocking and palm cards.[27]
  • Gun Rights America spent $23,201 opposing McMurtry and $4,349 supporting Massie.[27]
  • Protect Freedom PAC spent at least $17,500 opposing McMurtry.[27] The group spent at least $360,931 supporting Massie in the form of direct mail and advertisement buys.[30][27]
  • Together We Thrive spent $750 opposing Massie.[27]

Debates and forums

If you are aware of debates or forums held during this race, please email us.

Primaries in Kentucky

A primary election is an election in which registered voters select a candidate that they believe should be a political party's candidate for elected office to run in the general election. They are also used to choose convention delegates and party leaders. Primaries are state-level and local-level elections that take place prior to a general election. Kentucky utilizes a closed primary process, in which the selection of a party's candidates in an election is limited to registered party members.[43][44][45]

For information about which offices are nominated via primary election, see this article.

Noteworthy events

McMurtry's October 2019 tweet

On April 18, Massie retweeted a McMurtry tweet from October 2019.[46] McMurtry's tweet said, "I am in Austin this weekend. Glad to be in this group. #redneck #racist #f**kwit Just had the best BBQ of my life."[47][48]

Following the revelation of this tweet, U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) asked that McMurtry's campaign return a donation her leadership PAC had made. She wrote, "We as Republicans must not condone racism in any form. ... After reviewing the tweets, I asked that the contribution be returned."[49] Also in response to the tweet, the Republican Jewish Coalition withdrew their endorsement of McMurtry. The group wrote, "As a result of troubling comments that have come to light by congressional candidate Todd McMurtry which don't share our values or the values of the GOP, we are asking for a refund & withdrawing our PAC support."[50]

McMurtry responded with a statement:

“ My wife is Puerto Rican. My kids are bilingual. But the New York Times wants to call me a racist. That’s what they do to conservatives ... Well, I'm not going to let them intimidate me. I'm going to vote for Kentucky, and in support of President Trump and Thomas Massie won't.[51][35] ”

U.S. Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio) and the group, Pro-Israel America, also withdrew their support and asked for a return of their donations.[49][52]

Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act vote

See also: Federal government responses to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020-2021

On March 25, the U.S. Senate passed the CARES Act, a $2 trillion measure in response to the coronavirus pandemic, by a 96-0 vote, sending the bill to the U.S. House.[53] House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) announced that the House vote on the bill would be a voice vote rather than a roll-call vote, in order to allow self-quarantining House members to remain in their home districts amid the coronavirus outbreak.[34]

Rep. Thomas Massie objected to the voice vote and tried to force a full roll-call vote on the bill, arguing that, according to the Constitution, a quorum, or majority, needed to be present for the vote.[54] As a result of his objection, dozens of House members returned to the Capitol from their home districts during the outbreak to provide the quorum necessary to allow for a voice vote.[55] Massie's objection did not stand and the House passed the CARES Act by a voice vote. President Donald Trump signed the act into law the same day.[56]

Massie defended his objection, saying, "if we're going to pass the biggest spending bill in the history of mankind ... people should go on record for this."[57] He also said that he had not delayed the bill in that he gave House members advanced notice of his objections.[58]

Regarding Massie's opposition, Todd McMurtry tweeted, "People's livelihoods are at stake while he's playing political games. His top priority is to make himself the purest Libertarian politician in the House while failing to deliver results for Kentuckians."[59] President Trump criticized Massie's objection, saying he was only seeking publicity and tweeting, "WIN BACK HOUSE, but throw Massie out of Republican Party!"[60]

What's at stake in the general election?

U.S. House elections were held on November 3, 2020, and coincided with the 2020 presidential election. All 435 House districts were up for election, and the results determined control of the U.S. House in the 117th Congress.

At the time of the election, Democrats had a 232-197 advantage over Republicans. There was one Libertarian member, and there were five vacancies. Republicans needed to gain a net 21 seats to win control of the House. Democrats needed to gain seats or lose fewer than 14 net seats to keep their majority.

In the 2018 midterm election, Democrats had a net gain of 40 seats, winning a 235-200 majority in the House. Heading into the 2018 election, Republicans had a 235-193 majority with seven vacancies.

In the 25 previous House elections that coincided with a presidential election, the president's party had gained House seats in 16 elections and lost seats in nine. In years where the president's party won districts, the average gain was 18. In years where the president's party lost districts, the average loss was 27. Click here for more information on presidential partisanship and down-ballot outcomes.


General election race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[61]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[62][63][64]

Race ratings: Kentucky's 4th Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+18, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 18 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Kentucky's 4th Congressional District the 51st most Republican nationally.[65]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.88. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.88 points toward that party.[66]

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

One of 120 Kentucky counties—0.83 percent—is a pivot county. Pivot counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 pivot counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Elliott County, Kentucky 44.13% 2.50% 25.17%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Kentucky with 62.5 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 32.7 percent. In presidential elections between 1792 and 2016, Kentucky voted Democratic 45.6 percent of the time and Republican 26.3 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Kentucky voted Republican all five times.[67]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Kentucky. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[68][69]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 18 out of 100 state House districts in Kentucky with an average margin of victory of 24.5 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 18 out of 100 state House districts in Kentucky with an average margin of victory of 25 points. Clinton won one district controlled by a Republican heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 82 out of 100 state House districts in Kentucky with an average margin of victory of 32.8 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 82 out of 100 state House districts in Kentucky with an average margin of victory of 42 points. Trump won 20 districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.


District election history

2018

See also: Kentucky's 4th Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Kentucky District 4

Incumbent Thomas Massie defeated Seth Hall and Mike Moffett in the general election for U.S. House Kentucky District 4 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Thomas Massie
Thomas Massie (R)
 
62.2
 
162,946
Image of Seth Hall
Seth Hall (D)
 
34.6
 
90,536
Image of Mike Moffett
Mike Moffett (Independent)
 
3.2
 
8,318
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.0
 
12

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 261,812
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Kentucky District 4

Seth Hall defeated Patti Piatt and Christina Lord in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Kentucky District 4 on May 22, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Seth Hall
Seth Hall
 
40.8
 
17,862
Image of Patti Piatt
Patti Piatt
 
37.5
 
16,442
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Christina Lord
 
21.7
 
9,510

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 43,814
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Kentucky District 4

Incumbent Thomas Massie advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Kentucky District 4 on May 22, 2018.

Candidate
✔
Image of Thomas Massie
Thomas Massie

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Independent primary election

No Independent candidates ran in the primary.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

2016

See also: Kentucky's 4th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Thomas Massie (R), the only Republican to file in the race, won re-election to his third term in 2016. He faced Calvin Sidle, the only Democrat to file, in the general election. The primary elections took place on May 17, 2016. The general election took place on November 8, 2016.[70][71]

U.S. House, Kentucky District 4 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngThomas Massie Incumbent 71.3% 233,922
     Democratic Calvin Sidle 28.7% 94,065
Total Votes 327,987
Source: Kentucky Secretary of State

2014

See also: Kentucky's 4th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 4th Congressional District of Kentucky held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Thomas Massie (R) defeated Peter Newberry (D) in the general election.

U.S. House, Kentucky District 4 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngThomas Massie Incumbent 67.7% 150,464
     Democratic Peter Newberry 32.3% 71,694
Total Votes 222,158
Source: Kentucky Board of Elections

State profile

See also: Kentucky and Kentucky elections, 2020
USA Kentucky location map.svg

Partisan data

The information in this section was current as of April 3, 2020

Presidential voting pattern

  • Kentucky voted Republican in all seven presidential elections between 2000 and 2024.

Congressional delegation

State executives

  • Democrats held two and Republicans held five of Kentucky's 14 state executive offices. Elections for the other offices are nonpartisan.
  • Kentucky's governor was Democrat Andy Beshear.

State legislature

Kentucky Party Control: 1992-2025
Eight years of Democratic trifectas  •  Three years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R D D D D D D D D R R R R D D D D D D
Senate D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R

Kentucky quick stats
More Kentucky coverage on Ballotpedia:


Demographic data for Kentucky
 KentuckyU.S.
Total population:4,424,611316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):39,4863,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:87.6%73.6%
Black/African American:7.9%12.6%
Asian:1.3%5.1%
Native American:0.2%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
Two or more:2.1%3%
Hispanic/Latino:3.3%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:84.2%86.7%
College graduation rate:22.3%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$43,740$53,889
Persons below poverty level:22.7%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Kentucky.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.


See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Note: Kentucky's primary election was postponed to June 23, 2020, in response to the coronavirus pandemic.
  2. ↑ Note: Kentucky's primary election was postponed to June 23, 2020, in response to the coronavirus pandemic.
  3. ↑ Science, "Meet Representative Thomas Massie: A Constitutional Conservative With an MIT Pedigree," November 21, 2012
  4. ↑ Facebook, "Thomas Massie," accessed April 7, 2020
  5. ↑ YouTube, "Interview with Congressman Thomas Massie (R-KY)," November 20, 2019
  6. ↑ McMurtry's 2020 campaign website, "About Todd," accessed April 7, 2020
  7. ↑ McMurtry's 2020 campaign website, "Issues," accessed April 7, 2020
  8. ↑ Courier-Journal, "Attorney in Covington Catholic case challenges Rep. Thomas Massie in GOP primary," January 10, 2020
  9. ↑ Google Sheets, "115th Congress Members Guide with Elections and Demographic Data by District," accessed April 13, 2020
  10. ↑ Massie's 2020 campaign website, "Issues," accessed April 7, 2020
  11. ↑ YouTube, "Todd McMurtry Trump Hater," January 31, 2020
  12. ↑ 12.0 12.1 12.2 YouTube, "Blowtorch," April 2, 2020
  13. ↑ YouTube, "Support Trump. Dump Massie.," February 4, 2020
  14. ↑ The Wall Street Journal, "Kentucky House Race Heats Up After Massie's Lonely Stand on Coronavirus Vote," April 3, 2020
  15. ↑ Fox News, "Massie's primary opponent looks to capitalize on lawmaker's bad press over coronavirus aid maneuver," March 28, 2020
  16. ↑ Twitter, "Todd V. McMurtry," March 26, 2020
  17. ↑ Candidate Connection surveys completed before September 26, 2019, were not used to generate candidate profiles. In battleground primaries, Ballotpedia based its selection of noteworthy candidates on polling, fundraising, and noteworthy endorsements. In battleground general elections, all major party candidates and any other candidates with the potential to impact the outcome of the race were included.
  18. ↑ 18.00 18.01 18.02 18.03 18.04 18.05 18.06 18.07 18.08 18.09 18.10 18.11 18.12 18.13 18.14 18.15 18.16 18.17 18.18 18.19 18.20 18.21 18.22 18.23 18.24 18.25 18.26 18.27 18.28 18.29 18.30 18.31 18.32 Massie 2020 campaign website, "Endorsements of Thomas Massie for Congress from National and Kentucky Elected Leaders," accessed April 27, 2020
  19. ↑ 19.0 19.1 Twitter, "Philmonger," April 23, 2020
  20. ↑ Sen. Hornback previously endorsed Massie. He later switched his endorsement to McMurtry.
  21. ↑ Meadows endorsed Massie while he was a U.S. Representative for North Carolina's 11th Congressional District. He later became White House chief of staff.
  22. ↑ 22.0 22.1 Facebook, "McMurtry for Congress," May 26, 2020
  23. ↑ The Club For Growth, "Thomas Massie (KY-04)," acessed April 1, 2020
  24. ↑ 24.0 24.1 Big League Politics, "Meet the Pro-Gun Candidates that the National Association for Gun Rights is Endorsing," May 9, 2020
  25. ↑ 25.0 25.1 Facebook, "Thomas Massie," May 28, 2020
  26. ↑ Massie was also endorsed by the Kentucky and Northern Kentucky Right to Life branches.
  27. ↑ 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.7 Federal Election Commission, "Independent expenditures," accessed June 19, 2020
  28. ↑ 28.0 28.1 YouTube, "Unemployment," May 1, 2020
  29. ↑ Jewish Insider, "RJC withdraws its only endorsement of a GOP primary challenger over racist tweets," April 20, 2020
  30. ↑ 30.0 30.1 30.2 Federal Election Commission, "Kentucky - House District 04," accessed April 3, 2020
  31. ↑ Pro-Israel America PAC website, "Todd McMurtry (R)," accessed April 7, 2020
  32. ↑ 32.0 32.1 YouTube, "Fight of Our Lives," April 6, 2020
  33. ↑ Twitter, "RJC," March 27, 2020
  34. ↑ 34.0 34.1 NPR, "President Trump Signs $2 Trillion Coronavirus Rescue Package Into Law," March 27, 2020
  35. ↑ 35.0 35.1 35.2 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
  36. ↑ Massie's 2020 campaign website, “Issues,” accessed April 3, 2020
  37. ↑ McMurtry's 2020 campaign website, “Issues,” accessed April 3, 2020
  38. ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  39. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  40. ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed September 22, 2015
  41. ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed September 22, 2015
  42. ↑ National Review.com, "Why the Media Hate Super PACs," November 6, 2015
  43. ↑ NCSL,"State Primary Election Types," February 06, 2024
  44. ↑ Ballotpedia research conducted December 26, 2013, through January 3, 2014, researching and analyzing various state websites and codes.
  45. ↑ Kentucky State Board of Elections,"Key Information," accessed July 26, 2024
  46. ↑ Twitter, "Thomas Massie," April 18, 2020
  47. ↑ Expletive censored by Ballotpedia staff.
  48. ↑ DNYUZ, "Candidate’s ‘#racist’ hashtag spur two House Republicans to seek return of donations," April 19, 2020
  49. ↑ 49.0 49.1 The Hill, "Cheney, Turner request return of donations to Massie's primary opponent after racist tweets surface," April 18, 2020
  50. ↑ Twitter, "RJC," April 18, 2020
  51. ↑ Jewish Insider, "RJC withdraws its only endorsement of a GOP primary challenger over racist tweets," April 20, 2020
  52. ↑ Twitter, "Pro-Israel America," April 19, 2020
  53. ↑ The Hill, "Senate unanimously passes $2T coronavirus stimulus package," March 25, 2020
  54. ↑ Fox News, "Thomas Massie defends ill-fated coronavirus bill maneuver: 'I was just standing up for the Constitution,'" March 31, 2020
  55. ↑ NPR, "Trump Blasts GOP Congressman Who Attempted To Delay Coronavirus Vote," March 27, 2020
  56. ↑ The Washington Post, "Trump signs $2 trillion coronavirus bill into law as companies and households brace for more economic pain," March 27, 2020
  57. ↑ Fox News, "Massie's primary opponent looks to capitalize on lawmaker's bad press over coronavirus aid maneuver," March 28, 2020
  58. ↑ Twitter, "Thomas Massie," March 27, 2020
  59. ↑ Twitter, "Todd V. McMurtry," March 26, 2020
  60. ↑ Twitter, "Donald J. Trump," March 27, 2020
  61. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  62. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  63. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  64. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  65. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  66. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  67. ↑ 270towin.com, "Kentucky," accessed June 1, 2017
  68. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  69. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  70. ↑ Kentucky Secretary of State, "Candidate Filings with the Office of the Secretary of State," accessed January 27, 2016
  71. ↑ The New York Times, "Kentucky Results," May 17, 2016


Kentucky's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Mitch McConnell (R)
Rand Paul (R)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
Andy Barr (R)
Republican Party (7)
Democratic Party (1)


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