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Tennessee's 3rd Congressional District election, 2020

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2022
2018
Tennessee's 3rd Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: April 2, 2020
Primary: August 6, 2020
General: November 3, 2020

Pre-election incumbent:
Charles Fleischmann (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: Varies by county
Voting in Tennessee
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Tennessee's 3rd Congressional District
U.S. Senate1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th
Tennessee elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 3rd Congressional District of Tennessee, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Charles J. Fleischmann won election in the general election for U.S. House Tennessee District 3.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
April 2, 2020
August 6, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican Charles Fleischmann, who was first elected in 2010.

Tennessee's 3rd Congressional District is located in the northeastern and southeastern portions of the state and includes Anderson, Hamilton, McMinn, Monroe, Morgan, Polk, Roane, Scott, and Union counties and areas of Bradley and Campbell counties.[1]

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Tennessee's 3rd Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 32.9 30.5
Republican candidate Republican Party 65.3 67.3
Difference 32.4 36.8

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Tennessee modified its absentee/mail-in voting procedures and voter identification rules for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: Individuals "with a special vulnerability to COVID-19" and "caretakers for individuals with a special vulnerability to COVID-19" were deemed to meet the existing statutory criteria for absentee voting eligibility. A law requiring first-time voters to vote in person was temporarily suspended.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Tennessee District 3

Incumbent Charles J. Fleischmann defeated Meg Gorman, Amber Hysell, Keith Douglas Sweitzer, and Scott James in the general election for U.S. House Tennessee District 3 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Charles J. Fleischmann
Charles J. Fleischmann (R)
 
67.3
 
215,571
Image of Meg Gorman
Meg Gorman (D) Candidate Connection
 
30.5
 
97,687
Image of Amber Hysell
Amber Hysell (Independent) Candidate Connection
 
1.6
 
5,043
Image of Keith Douglas Sweitzer
Keith Douglas Sweitzer (Independent) Candidate Connection
 
0.6
 
1,990
Scott James (Independent) (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
8

Total votes: 320,299
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Tennessee District 3

Meg Gorman advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Tennessee District 3 on August 6, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Meg Gorman
Meg Gorman Candidate Connection
 
100.0
 
28,578

Total votes: 28,578
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Tennessee District 3

Incumbent Charles J. Fleischmann advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Tennessee District 3 on August 6, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Charles J. Fleischmann
Charles J. Fleischmann
 
100.0
 
69,890

Total votes: 69,890
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

One of 95 Tennessee counties—1 percent—is a Pivot County. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Hardeman County, Tennessee 7.92% 5.91% 6.18%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Tennessee with 60.7 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 34.7 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Tennessee cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 76.7 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Tennessee supported Democratic candidates for president and Republican candidates equally. The state, however, favored Republicans in every presidential election between 2000 and 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Tennessee. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns show the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns show the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[2][3]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 20 out of 99 state House districts in Tennessee with an average margin of victory of 50.7 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 22 out of 99 state House districts in Tennessee with an average margin of victory of 46.5 points. Clinton won one district controlled by a Republican heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 79 out of 99 state House districts in Tennessee with an average margin of victory of 36.8 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 77 out of 99 state House districts in Tennessee with an average margin of victory of 43.8 points. Trump won four districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+18, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 18 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Tennessee's 3rd Congressional District the 54th most Republican nationally.[4]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.01. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.01 points toward that party.[5]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[6] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[7] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Charles J. Fleischmann Republican Party $1,057,453 $387,211 $1,880,341 As of December 31, 2020
Meg Gorman Democratic Party $86,664 $78,581 $8,083 As of December 31, 2020
Amber Hysell Independent $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Scott James Independent $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Keith Douglas Sweitzer Independent $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[8]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[9][10][11]

Race ratings: Tennessee's 3rd Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 3rd Congressional District candidates in Tennessee in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Tennessee, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
Tennessee 3rd Congressional District All candidates 25 Fixed number N/A N/A 4/2/2020 Source

District election history

2018

See also: Tennessee's 3rd Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Tennessee District 3

Incumbent Charles J. Fleischmann defeated Danielle Mitchell and Rick Tyler in the general election for U.S. House Tennessee District 3 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Charles J. Fleischmann
Charles J. Fleischmann (R)
 
63.7
 
156,512
Image of Danielle Mitchell
Danielle Mitchell (D)
 
34.5
 
84,731
Image of Rick Tyler
Rick Tyler (Independent)
 
1.8
 
4,522

Total votes: 245,765
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Tennessee District 3

Danielle Mitchell advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Tennessee District 3 on August 2, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Danielle Mitchell
Danielle Mitchell
 
100.0
 
30,927

Total votes: 30,927
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Tennessee District 3

Incumbent Charles J. Fleischmann defeated Jeremy Massengale, William Spurlock Sr., and Harold Shevlin in the Republican primary for U.S. House Tennessee District 3 on August 2, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Charles J. Fleischmann
Charles J. Fleischmann
 
79.4
 
67,830
Image of Jeremy Massengale
Jeremy Massengale
 
12.0
 
10,219
William Spurlock Sr.
 
6.3
 
5,359
Image of Harold Shevlin
Harold Shevlin
 
2.4
 
2,055

Total votes: 85,463
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2016

See also: Tennessee's 3rd Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Charles Fleischmann (R) defeated Melody Shekari (D) and independent candidates Topher Kersting, Cassandra Mitchell, and Rick Tyler in the general election on November 8, 2016. Fleischmann defeated Allan Levene and Geoffery Suhmer Smith in the Republican primary, while Shekari defeated Michael Friedman and George Ryan Love to win the Democratic nomination. The primary elections took place on August 4, 2016.[12][13][14]

U.S. House, Tennessee District 3 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngCharles Fleischmann Incumbent 66.4% 176,613
     Democratic Melody Shekari 28.8% 76,727
     Independent Rick Tyler 1.9% 5,098
     Independent Cassandra Mitchell 1.9% 5,075
     Independent Topher Kersting 0.9% 2,493
Total Votes 266,006
Source: Tennessee Secretary of State


U.S. House, Tennessee District 3 Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngMelody Shekari 53.9% 8,660
Michael Friedman 33.2% 5,329
George Ryan Love 12.9% 2,070
Total Votes 16,059
Source: Tennessee Secretary of State


U.S. House, Tennessee District 3 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngCharles Fleischmann Incumbent 83.9% 31,964
Geoffery Suhmer Smith 8.1% 3,076
Allan Levene 8% 3,059
Total Votes 38,099
Source: Tennessee Secretary of State

2014

See also: Tennessee's 3rd Congressional District elections, 2014

Incumbent Charles J. Fleischmann won re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. He defeated Mary Headrick and Independent Cassandra Mitchell in the general election.

U.S. House, Tennessee District 3 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngCharles J. Fleischmann Incumbent 62.4% 97,319
     Democratic Mary Headrick 34.6% 53,963
     Independent Cassandra Mitchell 3.1% 4,768
Total Votes 156,050
Source: Tennessee Secretary of State Vote totals above are unofficial and will be updated once official totals are made available.

See also

External links

Footnotes


Senators
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
John Rose (R)
District 7
Vacant
District 8
District 9
Republican Party (9)
Democratic Party (1)
Vacancies (1)