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Tennessee's 1st Congressional District election, 2020

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2022
2018
Tennessee's 1st Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: April 2, 2020
Primary: August 6, 2020
General: November 3, 2020

Pre-election incumbent:
Phil Roe (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: Varies by county
Voting in Tennessee
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Tennessee's 1st Congressional District
U.S. Senate1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th
Tennessee elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

Diana Harshbarger (R), Blair Walsingham (D), and Steve Holder (I) ran in the November 3, 2020, general election in Tennessee's 1st Congressional District. On January 3, 2020, incumbent Rep. Phil Roe (R), first elected in 2008, announced that he would not seek re-election, leaving the seat open.[1]

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
April 2, 2020
August 6, 2020
November 3, 2020


Walsingham advanced to the general election after winning a three-way Democratic primary. Harshbarger defeated state 15 other candidates in the Republican primary, receiving 19.2% of the vote followed by state Rep. Timothy Hill and state Sen. Rusty Crowe with 16.8% and 16.1%, respectively. No other candidate received over 15% of the vote.

Tennessee's 1st Congressional District is located in the northeastern portion of the state and includes Carter, Cocke, Greene, Hamblen, Hancock, Hawkins, Johnson, Sevier, Sullivan, Unicoi, and Washington counties and a segment of Jefferson County.[2]


Republican Party For more information about the Republican primary, click here.
Democratic Party For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Tennessee's 1st Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 22.1 22.5
Republican candidate Republican Party 76.2 74.7
Difference 54.1 52.2

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Tennessee modified its absentee/mail-in voting procedures and voter identification rules for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: Individuals "with a special vulnerability to COVID-19" and "caretakers for individuals with a special vulnerability to COVID-19" were deemed to meet the existing statutory criteria for absentee voting eligibility. A law requiring first-time voters to vote in person was temporarily suspended.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Tennessee District 1

Diana Harshbarger defeated Blair Walsingham, Steve Holder, and Josh Berger in the general election for U.S. House Tennessee District 1 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Diana Harshbarger
Diana Harshbarger (R)
 
74.7
 
228,181
Image of Blair Walsingham
Blair Walsingham (D) Candidate Connection
 
22.5
 
68,617
Image of Steve Holder
Steve Holder (Independent) Candidate Connection
 
2.8
 
8,621
Josh Berger (Independent) (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
4

Total votes: 305,423
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Tennessee District 1

Blair Walsingham defeated Chris Rowe (Unofficially withdrew) and Larry Smith (Unofficially withdrew) in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Tennessee District 1 on August 6, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Blair Walsingham
Blair Walsingham Candidate Connection
 
52.7
 
6,076
Image of Chris Rowe
Chris Rowe (Unofficially withdrew) Candidate Connection
 
33.6
 
3,869
Larry Smith (Unofficially withdrew) Candidate Connection
 
13.6
 
1,572
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.0
 
3

Total votes: 11,520
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Tennessee District 1

The following candidates ran in the Republican primary for U.S. House Tennessee District 1 on August 6, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Diana Harshbarger
Diana Harshbarger
 
19.2
 
18,074
Image of Timothy Hill
Timothy Hill
 
16.7
 
15,731
Image of Rusty Crowe
Rusty Crowe
 
16.1
 
15,179
Image of Josh Gapp
Josh Gapp Candidate Connection
 
14.2
 
13,379
Steve Darden
 
12.4
 
11,647
Image of John Clark
John Clark Candidate Connection
 
9.4
 
8,826
Image of David Hawk
David Hawk
 
5.0
 
4,717
Image of Nichole Williams
Nichole Williams Candidate Connection
 
3.0
 
2,803
Image of Jay Adkins
Jay Adkins Candidate Connection
 
1.7
 
1,635
Carter Quillen Candidate Connection
 
0.9
 
853
Richard Baker
 
0.3
 
298
Image of Chad Fleenor
Chad Fleenor (Unofficially withdrew)
 
0.3
 
282
Image of Phil Arlinghaus
Phil Arlinghaus Candidate Connection
 
0.3
 
274
Robert Franklin
 
0.2
 
229
Chuck Miller
 
0.2
 
189
Image of Chance Cansler
Chance Cansler
 
0.2
 
147

Total votes: 94,263
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates


Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

One of 95 Tennessee counties—1 percent—is a Pivot County. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Hardeman County, Tennessee 7.92% 5.91% 6.18%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Tennessee with 60.7 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 34.7 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Tennessee cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 76.7 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Tennessee supported Democratic candidates for president and Republican candidates equally. The state, however, favored Republicans in every presidential election between 2000 and 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Tennessee. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns show the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns show the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[3][4]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 20 out of 99 state House districts in Tennessee with an average margin of victory of 50.7 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 22 out of 99 state House districts in Tennessee with an average margin of victory of 46.5 points. Clinton won one district controlled by a Republican heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 79 out of 99 state House districts in Tennessee with an average margin of victory of 36.8 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 77 out of 99 state House districts in Tennessee with an average margin of victory of 43.8 points. Trump won four districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+28, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 28 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Tennessee's 1st Congressional District the sixth most Republican nationally.[5]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.95. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.95 points toward that party.[6]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[7] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[8] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Blair Walsingham Democratic Party $185,084 $177,548 $7,536 As of December 31, 2020
Diana Harshbarger Republican Party $2,128,672 $1,870,826 $257,846 As of December 31, 2020
Josh Berger Independent $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Steve Holder Independent $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[9]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[10][11][12]

Race ratings: Tennessee's 1st Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 1st Congressional District candidates in Tennessee in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Tennessee, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
Tennessee 1st Congressional District All candidates 25 Fixed number N/A N/A 4/2/2020 Source

District election history

2018

See also: Tennessee's 1st Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Tennessee District 1

Incumbent Phil Roe defeated Marty Olsen and Michael Salyer in the general election for U.S. House Tennessee District 1 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Phil Roe
Phil Roe (R)
 
77.1
 
172,835
Image of Marty Olsen
Marty Olsen (D)
 
21.0
 
47,138
Image of Michael Salyer
Michael Salyer (Independent)
 
1.9
 
4,309

Total votes: 224,282
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Tennessee District 1

Marty Olsen advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Tennessee District 1 on August 2, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Marty Olsen
Marty Olsen
 
100.0
 
13,313

Total votes: 13,313
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Tennessee District 1

Incumbent Phil Roe defeated Todd McKinley, James Brooks, and Mickie Lou Banyas in the Republican primary for U.S. House Tennessee District 1 on August 2, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Phil Roe
Phil Roe
 
73.7
 
71,556
Image of Todd McKinley
Todd McKinley
 
16.7
 
16,175
James Brooks
 
5.2
 
5,058
Mickie Lou Banyas
 
4.4
 
4,253

Total votes: 97,042
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2016

See also: Tennessee's 1st Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Phil Roe (R) defeated Alan Bohms (D) and Robert Franklin (Independent) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Roe defeated Clint Tribble in the Republican primary on August 4, 2016.[13][14][15]

U.S. House, Tennessee District 1 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngPhil Roe Incumbent 78.4% 198,293
     Democratic Alan Bohms 15.4% 39,024
     Independent Robert Franklin 6.2% 15,702
     N/A Write-in 0% 6
Total Votes 253,025
Source: Tennessee Secretary of State


U.S. House, Tennessee District 1 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngPhil Roe Incumbent 82.2% 35,350
Clint Tribble 17.8% 7,673
Total Votes 43,023
Source: Tennessee Secretary of State

2014

See also: Tennessee's 1st Congressional District elections, 2014

Incumbent Phil Roe won re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. He defeated Libertarian Michael Salyer, Green Party candidate Robert Smith and independent candidate Robert Franklin in the general election.[16]

U.S. House, Tennessee District 1 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngPhil Roe Incumbent 82.8% 115,495
     Libertarian Michael Salyer 3% 4,145
     Independent Robert Franklin 7.1% 9,905
     Green Robert Smith 7.1% 9,869
Total Votes 139,414
Source: Tennessee Secretary of State Vote totals above are unofficial and will be updated once official totals are made available.

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. CNN, "Tennessee Rep. Phil Roe says he'll retire at end of year," January 3, 2020
  2. Tennessee Redistricting Map "Map" accessed July 30, 2012
  3. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  4. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  5. Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  6. FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  7. Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  8. Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  9. Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  10. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  11. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  12. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  13. Tennessee Secretary of State, "Candidate Petitions Filed as of April 7, 2016 Noon Qualifying Deadline," accessed April 8, 2016
  14. Politico, "Tennessee House Primaries Results," August 4, 2016
  15. CNN, "Election Results," accessed November 8, 2016
  16. Associated Press, "Tennessee - Summary Vote Results," accessed August 7, 2014


Senators
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
John Rose (R)
District 7
Vacant
District 8
District 9
Republican Party (9)
Democratic Party (1)
Vacancies (1)