The Federal Tap: Congressional retirements and the State of the Union

February 2, 2018Issue No. 98

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Week in review

On tap next week

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

Saturday, January 27

Endorsements in VA-06 Republican primary

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) endorsed Republican National Committee member Cynthia Dunbar in Virginia’s 6th Congressional District last week. Cruz said in a statement, "Cynthia Dunbar is a candidate who is shaped by her understanding of the Constitution, and driven by a passion to elevate and preserve our founding principles."
Dunbar's primary rival, Ben Cline (R), also received an endorsement on Tuesday from Mike Rubino, the Virginia state director of the Trump presidential campaign in 2016.
Dunbar and Cline are set to compete against six other Republicans for their party's nomination at a convention on May 19, 2018. Although this district is the second-most Republican in the state of Virginia, The Roanoke Times noted that the Republican nominee selection process—by convention rather than a primary—could lead to a candidate being selected without general election appeal.

Filing deadline passes in West Virginia

West Virginia's filing deadline for the May 8 primary passed. In the U.S. Senate, incumbent Joe Manchin (D) is seeking re-election and will face one primary challenger. Five Republicans also filed to challenge Manchin, including U.S. Rep. Evan Jenkins and State Attorney General Patrick Morrisey. West Virginia's U.S. Senate race is widely regarded as one of the Republican Party's best chances to change a seat from blue to red since the largest margin of victory for Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election came from West Virginia, where he defeated Hillary Clinton by 42 points
- In the U.S. House, there are three seats up for election. All three seats are currently held by Republicans and are expected to remain safely in Republican hands. There is one open seat in the third district, due to incumbent Evan Jenkins' U.S. Senate bid. Four out of a possible six primaries (66.7 percent) are contested in 2018. Neither incumbent seeking re-election will face a primary challenger.

Monday, January 29

Renacci gets support from Sen. Portman and Josh Mandel in Ohio Senate bid

U.S. Rep. Jim Renacci (R) added U.S. Sen. Rob Portman (R-Oh.) and State Treasurer and former Senate candidate Josh Mandel as endorsements in his bid for the U.S. Senate seat held by Sherrod Brown (D). Renacci had already received endorsements from the 10 sitting Republicans in Ohio’s U.S. House delegation and said that Donald Trump and Mike Pence will come to Ohio to campaign for him at some point.
Renacci faces businessman Mike Gibbons in the Republican primary on May 8. Gibbons has received support from grassroots organizations such as We the People, the Franklin County Republican Party, and Citizens for Trump. He said he will put $5 million of his own money into his campaign. Melissa Ackison and Don Elijah Eckhart are two other candidates who have filed to run in the Republican primary.
The winner of the Republican primary will likely face Sen. Brown in the general election. The seat is rated “Lean Democrat” by race rating agencies. Brown was first elected in 2006. His seat is one of 10 U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2018 that are held by Democrats and were won by Donald Trump (R) in the 2016 presidential election.

Restoration PAC spends $1.5 million on Wisconsin Senate race for Nicholson; Nicholson hit for previous Democratic affiliation

Restoration PAC spent $200,000 on an ad buy for Kevin Nicholson (R) in the Wisconsin Senate race in January 2018, bringing its total spent to $1.5 million. The super PAC is primarily funded by Richard Uihlein, Illinois' largest conservative donor nationwide, according to Crain's Chicago Business. The ad directly addresses Nicholson's previous Democratic affiliation. "Like Reagan, a passionate convert to conservativism. Nobody is better suited to defeat ultra-liberal Tammy Baldwin," the ad's narrator says of Nicholson.
This was an issue raised by former Trump White House chief of staff Reince Priebus last week when endorsed Leah Vukmir (R), Nicholson's primary rival. "When you go from president of the College Democrats to wanting to be the U.S. Senator for the Republican Party, I think there should be some in-between time," Priebus said.
Nicholson said his political conversion from Democrat to Republican was complete by 2007: “I’ve said a million times, my whole life’s an evolution, I get more conservative with everything I’ve done, from my service in the Marine Corps to my time in business to having three kids."

Senate rejects Pain-Capable Unborn Child Protection Act

The Senate rejected a motion to proceed to a vote on S 2311—the Pain-Capable Unborn Child Protection Act—by a vote of 51-46. Sixty votes were needed to end a filibuster. The legislation, introduced by Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), proposed making it a crime to perform an abortion after 20 weeks of pregnancy. A person who performed an abortion after 20 weeks would face a fine, up to five years in prison, or both. The bill proposed exceptions in cases of rape, incest, or to save the life of the mother. A woman who had an abortion after 20 weeks could not be prosecuted. The House passed the bill on October 3, 2017, by a vote of 237-189, along party lines. Republican Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Susan Collins (R-Maine) joined 42 Democrats and Sens. Angus King (I-Maine) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) to vote against the motion. Democratic Sens. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.), Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), and Bob Casey (D-Pa.) voted with 48 Republicans to proceed to a vote on the bill. According to The Hill, “Anti-abortion groups plan to use it [the vote] to hit vulnerable Democrats up for reelection in 2018.”

House Intel Committee votes to release memo on Russia investigation

The House Intelligence Committee voted along party lines to release a four-page, classified memo written under the direction of House Intel Chairman Devin Nunes (R-Calif.). The exact contents of the memo are unknown, but “people familiar with the memo say it raises concerns about surveillance under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act—specifically how a campaign associate of Mr. Trump’s came to be the target of U.S. spying and whether a dossier of salacious and unverified material was used in part to obtain the warrant,” according to The Wall Street Journal. The committee also voted on whether to release a memo drafted by Democrats that refutes information the GOP memo, but the measure was rejected along party lines.
- On Wednesday, FBI Director Christopher Wray met with Trump and asked him to not release the GOP memo. After the meeting, the FBI released a statement, saying, “The FBI was provided a limited opportunity to review this memo the day before the committee voted to release it. We have grave concerns about material omissions of fact that fundamentally impact the memo’s accuracy.”

Tuesday, January 30

Former Arizona governor endorses Lesko in AZ-08 special election

Former Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer (R) endorsed state Sen. Debbie Lesko (R) in the special election for Arizona’s 8th Congressional District. Primary rival Steve Montenegro has been endorsed by Trent Franks (R-Ariz.), who he is looking to succeed, and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas). This district, which backed the Republican presidential nominee by 20 points or more in the past three election cycles, is a safe Republican seat. The primary is later this month on February 27.

Trump delivers first State of the Union Address

In his first State of the Union Address, President Donald Trump discussed his accomplishments, his plans for his second year in office, and spoke about a "new American moment." He said, “So to every citizen watching at home tonight — no matter where you have been, or where you come from, this is your time. If you work hard, if you believe in yourself, if you believe in America, then you can dream anything, you can be anything, and together, we can achieve anything.”
- Trump spoke about a variety of issues, but he spent the most time explaining his immigration plan. It has the following four pillars: creating a path to citizenship for individuals who were brought into the U.S. without legal permission as children; securing the border; ending the visa lottery; and ending chain migration, also known as family-based migration. Read more about his speech and the four pillars of Trump’s immigration plan here.
- Rep. Joe Kennedy (D-Mass.), the grandson of Sen. Robert F. Kennedy and grandnephew of former President John Kennedy, delivered the Democratic response to Trump's State of the Union Address. Kennedy opened his speech by pointing out what he described as the flaws in the nation throughout the first year of Trump's presidency. He then outlined what Democrats could offer in response to the Trump administration, including "a living wage," paid leave, affordable child care, pensions that are solvent, fair trade deals, stronger infrastructure, an affordable education, and better healthcare.

House passes defense spending bill for third time

The House passed HR 695—the Department of Defense Appropriations Act, 2018—by a vote of 250-166. Two hundred and twenty-seven Republicans and 23 Democrats voted in favor of the bill. One hundred and sixty-two Democrats and four Republicans—Reps. Justin Amash (R-Mich.), John Duncan Jr. (R-Tenn.), Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), and Mark Sanford (R-S.C.)—voted against the bill. This was the third time the House passed the bill, but the Senate has not taken up the legislation because it has been unable to reach a deal on raising budget caps. The $659.2 billion defense spending bill is nearly identical to the previous defense appropriations bills. It proposed authorizing $584 billion for the base budget and $75.1 billion for the Overseas Contingency Operations (OCO) account. An additional $1.2 billion was added to the OCO account for Afghanistan operations that was not included in the first two bills.

Number of Democratic congressional candidates in Kentucky more than triple from 2016

The filing deadline passed for candidates to run in the 2018 elections for Kentucky's six U.S. House districts. A total of 28 candidates—18 Democrats and 10 Republicans—filed for election. This represents a sizeable increase from the previous two elections. A total of 18 candidates—5 Democrats and 13 Republicans— filed to run in 2016, and 16 candidates—10 Democrats and 6 Republicans—filed in 2014. All six incumbent representatives filed for re-election, and two of them will face a primary opponent on May 22.
- In total, eight out of a possible 12 primaries will be contested (66.7 percent). This is also an increase from prior election cycles. In 2016, there were five contested primaries (41.7 percent), and there were four contested primary races (33.3 percent) in 2014. The Republican Party currently holds a 5-1 majority in the state’s U.S. House delegation, and five of the six districts are expected to be safe holds for the party that is currently in control. The exception is District 6, which is currently held by Rep. Andy Barr (R). This race was rated Lean Republican by several outlets as of the end of January.

Wednesday, January 31

Former North Dakota GOP chair Gary Emineth (R) announces Senate run

Former North Dakota Republican Party chair Gary Emineth (R) announced he was running for the U.S. Senate in North Dakota. Emineth decided to launch a bid after Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), whose campaign he managed in 2012, declined to run last month. There is only one other Republican in the race: potato farmer Tom Campbell, who was endorsed early by more than 30 state legislators.
Emineth and Campbell will be competing for a spot in the general election against incumbent Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D). She was first elected in 2012, winning by one percentage point. This race is one of nine Senate battlegrounds that Ballotpedia is tracking in 2018.

Gowdy announces retirement

Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.), chairman of the House Oversight Committee, announced that he would not seek re-election. He said, "There is a time to come and a time to go. This is the right time, for me, to leave politics and return to the justice system." Gowdy was the 48th member of Congress to announce that he would not seek re-election. The filing deadline to enter South Carolina's 4th Congressional District election is March 30, 2018.

Brady announces retirement

Rep. Robert Brady (D-Pa.) announced that he will not seek re-election. He said, “I’ve been married for 21 years. For twenty of those years, I’ve been going to Washington four days a week. I need to come back home.” Brady was the 49th member of Congress to announce that he would not seek re-election. The filing deadline to enter Pennsylvania's 1st Congressional District election is March 6, 2018.

U.S. Senate confirms David Stras to U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit

The U.S. Senate voted 56-42 to confirm David Stras to a seat on the United States Court of Appeals for the 8th Circuit. The Eighth Circuit hears appeals arising from federal district courts in North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska, and Arkansas.
Stras was a justice on the Minnesota Supreme Court at the time of his nomination. He will join the court upon taking his judicial oath and receiving his judicial commission. Under Article III of the U.S. Constitution, Stras will be commissioned to serve a life term on the court.
Stras is the 24th of Trump's Article III life-term judicial nominees to be confirmed since Trump took office and the fifth to be confirmed this month. As of February 1, 2017, there are 54 nominees awaiting a final confirmation vote in the U.S. Senate.

Ben McAdams tops incumbent's Q4 fundraising in Utah Congressional race

Wednesday was the deadline for candidates running for U.S. House to file year-end campaign finance reports with the Federal Elections Commission. Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams (D) reported raising a total of $500,000 in the fourth quarter of 2017, while sitting Rep. Mia Love (R-UT04) reported raising a total of $460,000 during the same period. Since McAdams declared his candidacy in October 2017, this was his first filing of the campaign. However, Love maintained an advantage in cash on hand, entering the new year with $580,000 to McAdams' $460,000. So far in the race to date, Love has raised a total of $1.48 million to McAdams' $500,000.
McAdams is one of four Democratic candidates who have so far filed for the seat, although he is the only Democratic candidate to have so far raised more than $50,000. No Republican challengers to Love have declared. Candidates have until March 15 to file to appear on the June 26 primary ballot.
The 4th Congressional District of Utah was created following the 2010 Census. Although Rep. Jim Matheson (D) was elected to represent the district in 2012, he opted not to seek re-election in 2014. Love, who was first elected in 2014, has held the seat since that time.

Friday, February 2

Pence headlines fundraiser for Saccone in Pennsylvania

Vice President Mike Pence (R) attended a fundraiser in Pennsylvania for Republican state Rep. Rick Saccone. Saccone is competing with Democratic Marine Corps vet Conor Lamb and Libertarian attorney Drew Miller in the March 13 special election for Pennsylvania's 18th District seat in the U.S. House. The election is being held to fill the vacancy created by the resignation of Rep. Tim Murphy (R) in October.
President Donald Trump (R) won the 18th District by close to 20 points in 2016, but a poll released earlier this month showed Lamb running just 3 points behind Saccone in the upcoming special election.
In the wake of their loss in last month's Senate special election in Alabama, Republicans are pulling out all the stops to hold the 18th District seat. Trump traveled to Pennsylvania earlier this month, previewing his visit with a tweet that voiced support for Saccone. Trump's re-election campaign has since officially endorsed Saccone, and Republican and conservative groups, including the National Republican Congressional Committee, the Congressional Leadership Fund, the 45Committee, and Ending Spending Inc., have invested money, manpower, or both in the race.

House Intelligence Committee releases surveillance memo

The House Intelligence Committee released a memo that questions the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and U.S. Department of Justice’s (DOJ) use of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act to obtain information about Carter Page, a Trump campaign advisor and American citizen. The memo states, "Our findings, which are detailed below, 1) raise concerns with the legitimacy and legality of certain DOJ and FBI interactions with the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance (FISC), and 2) represent a troubling breakdown of legal processes established to protect the American people from abuses to the FISA process."
- The memo alleges that FBI officials withheld information from the FISA court to obtain a warrant to surveil Page. Officials did not tell the court that the unverified Steele Dossier was paid for by Fusion GPS and financed by the Democratic National Committee and the Hillary Clinton campaign. The dossier was compiled by former British spy Christopher Steele to show President Donald Trump’s potential ties to Russia. Additionally, the memo states that the court was not notified that Steele was working for Fusion GPS. The memo also states that officials did not tell the court about Steele’s feelings for Trump. Steele told a DOJ official that he was "desperate that Donald Trump not get elected and was passionate about him not being president." The memo states that withholding this information could have influenced the court’s decision to grant a warrant.
- The memo states that the Steele Dossier was used to obtain the initial October 21, 2016, warrant to spy on Page and was included in several 90-day renewals. Former FBI Director James Comey, FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe, and DOJ officials Sally Yates, Dana Boente, and Rod Rosenstein all signed at least one FISA application renewal.

Sen. Mike Lee endorses Chip Roy in TX CD-21 Republican primary

U.S. Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) endorsed Chip Roy in the Republican primary for Texas’ 21st Congressional District on Friday. Roy, a former chief of staff for Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.), is one of 18 candidates running to replace incumbent Lamar Smith (R), who announced his retirement in November. He has already received endorsements from Cruz, U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry (R), and conservative organizations such as the Club for Growth and the House Freedom Fund. He says that he plans to join the House Freedom Caucus if elected.
Other candidates seeking election to the San Antonio-based seat include former CIA officer William Negley, former U.S. Rep. Quico Canseco, state Rep. Jason Isaac, and former Bexar County GOP Chairman Robert Stovall. In the campaign finance filing report released on February 1, Negley, who has the support of San Antonio billionaire Red McCombs, had the most cash on hand with $220,000. Roy closely followed him with $195,000. A poll released in late December showed Canseco with 22.4 percent of the vote. Roy and Negley were both polling at around one percent.
The winner of the Republican primary is likely to go on to win the seat with the race being rated “Safe Republican” or “Likely Republican” by rating agencies. However, Donald Trump’s margin of victory in the district was just 10 points compared to Mitt Romney’s 22-point win in 2012. Four Democrats are running in a competitive primary to face the Republican primary winner in November.
The primary election will be held on March 6. A runoff election, which is likely due to the number of candidates in the race, will be held on May 22.

Congress is in session

The Senate will be in session Monday through Friday. The House be in session Monday through Wednesday.

SCOTUS is in recess

The U.S. Supreme Court is not scheduled to hear any additional arguments next week. To date, the court has agreed to hear arguments in 71 cases; of those 71 cases, the court has heard arguments in 39 cases. To learn more about this term, read our overview.

WHAT'S ON TAP NEXT WEEK

Wednesday, February 7

Upcoming filing deadline for partisan candidates in Ohio congressional elections

A total of 169 federal and state-level seats up for election in Ohio will be covered by Ballotpedia in 2018, which includes U.S. Congress, governor and other state executives, Ohio General Assembly, and Ohio state courts. Ballotpedia will also cover judicial and municipal elections across five counties: Cuyahoga, Fairfield, Franklin, Hamilton, and Lucas. The primary election is May 8, 2018, and the general election is November 6, 2018.
- The filing deadline only pertains to partisan candidates. To file for election, candidates must pay a filing fee and file a declaration of candidacy and a set number of petition signatures from qualified electors of the same political party as the candidate. Independent candidates have until May 7, 2018, to file for election.
- Ohio is the country's fifth statewide filing deadline for the November election. Illinois, Texas, West Virginia, and Kentucky preceded it.

Thursday, February 8

Deadline to fund the government

On January 22, 2018, President Donald Trump signed a continuing resolution (CR) to fund the government until February 8, 2018, to end a three-day government shutdown. It was the fourth short-term funding bill passed since the beginning of the fiscal year on October 1, 2018. Congress is expected to pass a fifth stopgap bill to fund the government through March 22, 2018.

Friday, February 9

Filing deadline for Alabama federal, state, and local offices

The candidate filing deadline will pass for candidates running for election in Alabama.
- At the federal level, all seven of the state's congressional districts are up for election. These seats are currently held by six Republicans and one Democrat. All seven incumbents are expected to run for reelection.
- On the state level, there will be elections for governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, secretary of state, treasurer, auditor, agriculture commissioner, and public service commissioners. All 35 seats of the state Senate and all 105 seats of the state House are up for election. Five seats on the Alabama Supreme Court are up for election, as well as three seats each on the Alabama Court of Civil Appeals and the Alabama Court of Criminal Appeals.
- Ballotpedia is also covering local elections in Jefferson County because the county contains Birmingham, one of the top 100 cities in the U.S. by population. These races include county commissioner, sheriff, coroner, and local judgeships.

Major party filing deadline for Indiana federal, state, and local offices

The major party filing deadline will pass to run in federal, state, and local Indiana elections in 2018. The filing deadline for independent and third party candidates is July 2, 2018. An open primary election will be held on May 8, 2018, and the general election is scheduled on November 6, 2018.
- At the federal level, elections will be held for one U.S. Senator and nine U.S. Representatives—one from each of the state’s nine congressional districts.
- At the state level, elections will be held for secretary of state, treasurer, and auditor. Half of the 50 Indiana State Senate seats and all 100 of the state House seats are also up for election in 2018.
- Ballotpedia is covering elections in Allen County because the county contains Fort Wayne, one of the top 100 cities in the U.S. by population. These races include county commissioner,council, assessor, auditor, recorder, sheriff, prosecuting attorney, and court clerk. Additionally, 13 school districts will hold elections for 37 school board seats.

Where was the president last week?

On Monday, President Donald Trump participated in a swearing-in ceremony for Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar. He then had lunch with the United Nations Security Council and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson at the White House.
On Tuesday, Trump delivered the State of the Union Address to a Joint Session of Congress.
On Wednesday, Trump met with Vice President Mike Pence, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, and Defense Secretary Jim Mattis at the White House. In the afternoon, he met with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. He then held a tax reform meeting with American workers at the White House.
On Thursday, Trump spoke at the 2018 House and Senate Republican Member Conference in Lewisburg, West Virginia. In the evening, he spoke at the Republican National Committee's winter meeting in Washington, D.C.
On Friday, Trump met with North Korean defectors at the White House. He then visited the Customs and Border Protection National Targeting Center in Virginia, and participated in a round-table discussion.

Federal Judiciary

145 federal judicial vacancies
54 pending nominations
30 future federal judicial vacancies, with three pending nominations for a future vacancy.

About

The Tap covered election news, public policy, and other noteworthy events from February 2016 to February 2022.

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