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The State and Local Tap: Most expensive ballot measure campaigns of the cycle

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October 12, 2018Issue No. 134

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Week in review
On tap next week

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

Here's what happened in state and local politics last week. To see what happened in federal politics, click here.

State Politics: The Week in Review

Ballot Measures Update

2018:

  • The last pending statewide measures have been certified; voters in 38 states will decide 157 statewide ballot measures in November. Although no more measures are going through the regular process to qualify for the ballot, court cases are still pending that could invalidate certain measures or allow certain measures that were previously removed to go back on the ballot. A total of 169 statewide ballot measures were certified for 2018 ballots, but 12 were decided at pre-November elections. Of the 157 measures on the ballot in November, 65 are citizen-initiated measures.
    • There were 158 measures certified for the 2014 ballot. In 2016, 162 measures were ultimately on the ballot.
    • Notable trends for 2018 include redistricting and election policy, marijuana, Medicaid expansion and healthcare, Marsy’s Law, energy, restrictions on taxes, abortion, and minimum wage.
    • So far, at least $648.7 million has been contributed to support and opposition campaigns for 2018 statewide ballot measures, with the largest amounts in California, Florida, and Nevada.
      • Support campaigns had raised about 56 percent of the campaign funds as of October 10, 2018.
      • The 69 citizen-initiated measures had featured about 87 percent of the campaign finance activity.

Top ballot measure campaign contributions

So far, at least $648.7 million has been contributed to support and opposition campaigns for 2018 statewide ballot measures, with the largest amounts in California, Florida, and Washington.

    • Support campaigns had raised about 56 percent of the campaign funds as of October 10, 2018.
    • The 69 citizen-initiated measures had featured about 87 percent of the campaign finance activity.

According to reports available as of October 10, 2018, the following 15 states featured the most in ballot measure campaign contributions:

    • California - $272,139,840.46 in contributions
    • Florida - $91,156,324.81 in contributions
    • Washington - $38,661,111.02 in contributions
    • Nevada - $35,520,650.00 in contributions
    • Missouri - $32,724,196.34 in contributions
    • Arizona - $29,283,569.24 in contributions
    • Massachusetts - $26,149,912.33 in contributions
    • Montana - $20,855,344.74 in contributions
    • Oregon - $17,627,462.53 in contributions
    • Colorado - $14,499,577.77 in contributions
    • Alaska - $13,003,779.70 in contributions
    • Arkansas - $9,349,092.17 in contributions
    • Georgia - $8,487,584.00 in contributions
    • Utah - $7,894,385.72 in contributions
    • Michigan - $6,685,141.20 in contributions


Monday, October 8

Unions split on endorsements in Alaska's three-way gubernatorial race

  • Alaska Gov. Bill Walker, the nation's only independent governor, is seeking re-election in 2018. He faces challenges from Democrat Mark Begich and Republican Mike Dunleavy. Unions in the state have split on which candidate to endorse in the race.
  • On Monday, Alaska’s Public Safety Employees Association (PSEA) endorsed Dunleavy (R). In 2014, the group endorsed Walker. Doug Massie, president of the PSEA’s Division of Public Safety chapter, said at a press conference, "Public safety must be the number one priority of our next governor. … Mike Dunleavy has spent many years living in rural Alaska. He understands the unique challenges."
  • The Anchorage Police Department Employees Association (APDEA) endorsed Begich (D) in September. The union endorsed Walker in 2014. APDEA Vice President Sgt. Jeremy Conkling referred to Begich's record as mayor of Anchorage, which included adding police officers to the city's force, saying, "[W]e have seen him tackle the hard issues and make a meaningful impact."
  • Walker has been endorsed by the Alaska AFL-CIO. Alaska AFL-CIO president Vince Beltrami said of Walker, "He's earned another four years — we support most of what he’s done." In 2014, the group said it would not endorse any candidate if the race were a three-way race; after the Democratic Party voted to support a unity ticket with Bill Walker (I) as the gubernatorial candidate and Byron Mallot (D) as his running mate that year, the AFL-CIO endorsed Walker.
  • National Education Association-Alaska also endorsed Walker.

Tuesday, October 9

New Hampshire gubernatorial candidates release first ads in general election

  • New Hampshire gubernatorial candidates Gov. Chris Sununu (R) and Molly Kelly (D) released their first television ads of the general election. Sununu’s ad focuses on what he sees as his successes in office, such as improvements to the state’s economy. Kelly’s focuses on criticisms of Sununu’s opposition to paid family leave.
  • A recently-gained Republican trifecta is at stake in the 2018 election. Sununu was first elected in 2016, winning by a 2-point margin. That same year, Hillary Clinton won New Hampshire in the presidential election by a 0.4-point margin. The trifecta was one of two the GOP gained as a result of the 2016 gubernatorial elections, alongside Missouri.

Elizabeth Warren and Donald Trump Jr. stump for Abrams (D) and Kemp (R) in GA gubernatorial race

  • U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Donald Trump Jr. came to Georgia to campaign for competing candidates in the gubernatorial race between Secretary of State Brian Kemp (R) and former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D).
  • Trump Jr. and his girlfriend, America First Vice Chair Kimberly Guilfoyle, came to Athens, Georgia, to campaign for Kemp. President Donald Trump endorsed Kemp ahead of the July 24 Republican gubernatorial runoff, giving Kemp a boost over his opponent, Lieutenant Gov. Casey Cagle.
  • Warren appeared at Clayton State University alongside Abrams. Other high-profile Abrams endorsers include U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Hillary Clinton, and former Presidents Jimmy Carter and Barack Obama.
  • A Survey USA/11 Alive News poll released Tuesday showed a statistical tie between Abrams and Kemp, the same result as a Landmark Communications poll in September and a University of Georgia poll in August. Neither candidate has registered at 50 percent in a poll, with some voters undecided and 2 to 3 percent support for Libertarian Ted Metz. If no candidate receives more than 50 percent on November 6, there will be a runoff election between the top two vote getters on December 4. Georgia and Louisiana are the only two states in the country that use general election runoffs.

Wednesday, October 10

Jury begins deliberations in trial of West Virginia Supreme Court Justice Allen Loughry

  • The jury began deliberations in the criminal trial of West Virginia Supreme Court Justice Allen Loughry after both sides held closing arguments. Prosecutors said Loughry abused his power and exhibited a sense of entitlement. The defense argued there was not enough evidence to convict Loughry beyond a reasonable doubt. Loughry took the stand in his own defense on October 8 and October 9. He denied allegations of using state cars for personal trips and said court staff misled him on spending and home office policies.
  • Loughry's trial began October 3. He faces 22 charges including wire fraud, fraud and swindles, witness tampering, and making false statements. He initially faced 25 federal charges, but three were dropped before opening statements.
  • Loughry is accused of improperly using state vehicles, spending state funds for personal use, having state-owned property at his home, and lying to federal investigators about the property. He was indicted on June 20. The indictment said Loughry acted "with intent to defraud, misused and abused his position, power and authority."
  • Loughry also faces an impeachment trial before the state Senate. The proceedings, launched in June 2018, stemmed from the justices' alleged misuse of over $1 million in state funds. On August 13, the state House of Delegates adopted 11 articles of impeachment against state supreme court Justices Robin Davis, Margaret Workman, Beth Walker, and Loughry. Loughry was named in seven of the articles. His trial is scheduled for November 12.

Thursday, October 11

Wagner trails Wolf in campaign funds and polling in PA gubernatorial race

  • Former state Sen. Scott Wagner (R) said in a fundraising email that he was “tapped out” after pouring $10 million of his own money into his Pennsylvania gubernatorial campaign against incumbent Gov. Tom Wolf (D). According to campaign finance reports filed in September, Wolf had $8.9 million in cash on hand to Wagner’s $1.8 million.
  • Wagner also accused a “small number of establishment Republicans” of working to undermine his campaign, although he did not specify who.
  • Public opinion polls conducted in September showed Wolf leading Wagner by a margin of 12 to 22 percentage points. Wolf was first elected governor in 2014 by a margin of 10 percentage points, while President Donald Trump (R) won the swing state in the 2016 presidential election by a margin of one percentage point.

Acting West Virginia Supreme Court justices block Workman's impeachment trial from proceeding

  • Five circuit court judges temporarily assigned to the state supreme court blocked Justice Workman's impeachment trial from proceeding. The justices ruled the impeachment proceedings violated the state constitution's separation of powers clause, arguing the state Senate did not have the authority to impeach Workman.
  • The opinion was not unanimous—Justices Bloom and Reger concurred in part and dissented in part. The majority opinion, written by Justice Matish, argued the charges against Workman were based on alleged violations of the state Code of Judicial Conduct, which he said the state supreme court (not the legislature) regulates. The ruling also said the state House denied the justices' due process because the House allegedly failed to pass an overall impeachment resolution. The ruling prohibited the state Senate from proceeding against Workman "for the conduct alleged in Article IV and Article VI, and in Article XIV as drafted."
  • Workman's trial was scheduled for October 15. She was named in three articles of impeachment the state House approved August 13. Senate Communications Director Jacque Jo Bland said the Senate still planned to convene October 15. Bland also said the Senate planned to appeal the case before the Supreme Court of the United States.

Special Elections

  • As of this week, 94 state legislative special elections have been scheduled or held in 26 states. Elections have been held for 25 Democratic seats and 45 Republican seats. Ten seats have flipped from Republican control to Democratic control. Two seats have flipped from Democratic control to Republican control. In special elections between 2011 and 2017, one party (either Republicans or Democrats) saw an average net gain of four seats across the country each year.
    • An average of 90 seats were filled through special elections in each of the past three odd years (2013: 84, 2015: 88, 2017: 98).
    • An average of 44 seats were filled through special elections in each of the past four even years (2010: 26, 2012: 45, 2014: 40, 2016: 65).

Upcoming special elections include:

November 6

December 4

Local Politics: The Week in Review

Elections Update

Tuesday, October 9

School board recalls have mixed results

  • A recall election seeking to remove Laura Bauknecht from her position on the five-member Crandon School District school board in Wisconsin was approved by voters. Michelle Gobert was elected to replace her. Earlier in the year, an effort to recall Nadine Westimayer from her position on the board resulted in her resignation.
    • Westimayer and Bauknecht were targeted for recall by the group Citizens United for Education. The group listed a projected deficit for the district, the district's administrator-to-student ratio, and low student and staff morale as reasons for the recall effort.
  • A recall election seeking to remove Vangi McCoy from her position on the Dolores School District Board of Education in Colorado was defeated by voters. McCoy retained her seat on the board. Keith Moore and Joe Warren Reed ran to replace McCoy, but neither was elected to the board due to the recall's defeat.
    • Recall supporters also circulated petitions against board President Dee Prock. Prock resigned after the recall was certified for election, citing work and family priorities. Her name did not appear on the ballot.
    • On the recall petitions, supporters of the effort said that Prock and McCoy had failed to follow transparency policies. The petitions also blamed Prock's and McCoy's leadership for the district's low student performance rating. Prock said the petitions had false information and that she believed residents of the district had signed under false pretense.
  • Ballotpedia has covered 32 school board recall efforts nationwide in 2018. Those efforts targeted 72 board members. Eight recall elections have been held so far in 2018. Three more recall elections will be held in November.
WHAT'S ON TAP NEXT WEEK

Here's what is happening in state and local politics this week. To see what happened in federal politics, click here.

State Politics: What's On Tap Next Week

Tuesday, October 16

Free webinar: Marijuana on the ballot

  • Voters in five states will get to weigh in on ballot measures related to marijuana this November. These measures cover issues ranging from legalization for recreational and medicinal use, to expungement, to the definition of hemp. Rather than read up on each measure, including the three competing measures on Missouri ballots, let our experts talk you through them.
  • Reserve your spot today!
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The Tap covered election news, public policy, and other noteworthy events from February 2016 to February 2022.

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