Virginia's 9th Congressional District election, 2020

	2022 → ← 2018
Virginia's 9th Congressional District
	Democratic primary; Republican primary; General election
Election details
	Filing deadline: March 26, 2020
	Primary: June 23, 2020; General: November 3, 2020; Pre-election incumbent:; Morgan Griffith (Republican)
How to vote
	Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.; Voting in Virginia
Race ratings
	Cook Political Report: Solid Republican; Inside Elections: Solid Republican; Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
	U.S. Senate battlegrounds; U.S. House battlegrounds; Federal and state primary competitiveness; Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
	Virginia's 9th Congressional District; U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th ; Virginia elections, 2020; U.S. Congress elections, 2020; U.S. Senate elections, 2020; U.S. House elections, 2020; Alabama U.S. House racesAlaska U.S. House racesArizona U.S. House racesArkansas U.S. House racesCalifornia U.S. House racesColorado U.S. House racesConnecticut U.S. House racesDelaware U.S. House racesFlorida U.S. House racesGeorgia U.S. House racesHawaii U.S. House racesIdaho U.S. House racesIllinois U.S. House racesIndiana U.S. House racesIowa U.S. House racesKansas U.S. House racesKentucky U.S. House racesLouisiana U.S. House racesMaine U.S. House racesMaryland U.S. House racesMassachusetts U.S. House racesMichigan U.S. House racesMinnesota U.S. House racesMississippi U.S. House racesMissouri U.S. House racesMontana U.S. House racesNebraska U.S. House racesNevada U.S. House racesNew Hampshire U.S. House racesNew Jersey U.S. House racesNew Mexico U.S. House racesNew York U.S. House racesNorth Carolina U.S. House racesNorth Dakota U.S. House racesOhio U.S. House racesOklahoma U.S. House racesOregon U.S. House racesPennsylvania U.S. House racesRhode Island U.S. House racesSouth Carolina U.S. House racesSouth Dakota U.S. House racesTennessee U.S. House racesTexas U.S. House racesUtah U.S. House racesVermont U.S. House racesVirginia U.S. House racesWashington U.S. House racesWest Virginia U.S. House racesWisconsin U.S. House racesWyoming U.S. House racesSubmit

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 9th Congressional District of Virginia, held elections in 2020.

In Virginia, political parties decide for themselves whether to nominate their candidates via primary or convention. In Virginia's 9th Congressional District, a Democratic convention was scheduled for May 2, 2020, and a Republican primary was scheduled for June 23, 2020.

Incumbent H. Morgan Griffith won election in the general election for U.S. House Virginia District 9.

Candidate filing deadline	Primary election	General election
March 26, 2020	June 23, 2020	November 3, 2020

Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican Morgan Griffith, who was first elected in 2010.

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Virginia's 9th Congressional District, 2020
Race	Presidential	U.S. House
Democratic candidate	28.4	0
Republican candidate	70.4	94
Difference	42	94

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Virginia modified its absentee/mail-in voting and candidate filing procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

Absentee/mail-in voting: Drop-boxes to return absentee and mail-in ballots were used for the general election. The witness requirement for absentee voting was suspended, and all absentee and mail-in ballots had prepaid return postage.
Voter registration: The state's voter registration deadline was extended from October 13, 2020, to October 15, 2020.^[1]
Candidate filing procedures: Petition signature requirements for unaffiliated and minor-party candidates for federal office in Virginia were reduced as follows: 2,500 signatures for presidential candidates; 3,500 signatures for U.S. Senate candidates; and 350 signatures for U.S. House candidates. The filing deadline for unaffiliated and minor-party congressional candidates was extended to August 1.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Virginia District 9

Incumbent H. Morgan Griffith defeated Cameron Dickerson in the general election for U.S. House Virginia District 9 on November 3, 2020.

	Candidate	%	Votes
✔	H. Morgan Griffith (R)	94.0	271,851
	Cameron Dickerson (Independent) (Write-in)	0.0	0
	Other/Write-in votes	6.0	17,423

	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 289,274
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
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Republican primary election

The Republican primary election was canceled. Incumbent H. Morgan Griffith advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Virginia District 9.

Democratic convention

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Cameron Dickerson (D)

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Five of 133 Virginia counties—3.8 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County	Trump margin of victory in 2016	Obama margin of victory in 2012	Obama margin of victory in 2008
Buckingham County, Virginia	11.28%	2.43%	0.87%
Caroline County, Virginia	5.02%	8.24%	11.97%
Essex County, Virginia	2.14%	7.30%	10.35%
Nelson County, Virginia	5.59%	2.72%	9.15%
Westmoreland County, Virginia	7.14%	6.95%	10.24%

Note: Although it is highlighted in the map above, the city of Chesapeake is not considered a county and not included in our calculations as such.

In the 2016 presidential election, Virginia was a battleground state. Hillary Clinton (D) won Virginia with 49.7 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 44.4 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Virginia voted Democratic 56.67 percent of the time and Republican 43.33 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Virginia voted Democratic three times (2008, 2012, and 2016) and Republican two times (2000 and 2004).

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+19, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 19 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Virginia's 9th Congressional District the 39th most Republican nationally.^[2]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.94. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.94 points toward that party.^[3]

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name

Party

Receipts*

Disbursements**

Cash on hand

Date

H. Morgan Griffith

Republican Party

$877,151

$467,455

$421,442

As of December 31, 2020

Cameron Dickerson

Independent

$225

$159

$26

As of September 30, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.^[4]
Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.^[5]^[6]^[7]

Race ratings: Virginia's 9th Congressional District election, 2020
Race tracker	Race ratings
	November 3, 2020	October 27, 2020	October 20, 2020	October 13, 2020
The Cook Political Report	Solid Republican	Solid Republican	Solid Republican	Solid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales	Solid Republican	Solid Republican	Solid Republican	Solid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe Republican	Safe Republican	Safe Republican	Safe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 9th Congressional District candidates in Virginia in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Virginia, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State	Office	Party	Signatures required	Signature formula	Filing fee	Filing fee formula	Filing deadline	Source
Virginia	9th Congressional District	Qualified party	1,000	Fixed number	$3,480.00	2% of annual salary	3/26/2020	Source
Virginia	9th Congressional District	Unaffiliated	350	Fixed number (reduced by court order)	N/A	N/A	8/1/2020	Source

District election history