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How long could the presidential nomination fights last?
Presidential election in Nevada, 2016 and Presidential election in South Carolina, 2016
This article covering the 2016 presidential election was written outside the scope of Ballotpedia's encyclopedic coverage and does not fall under our neutrality policy or style guidelines. It is preserved as it was originally written. For our encyclopedic coverage of the 2016 election, click here.
 Date: November 8, 2016 |
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February 19, 2016
On the eve of two key early nominating contests, the Nevada Democratic caucuses and the South Carolina Republican primary, a majority of political insiders in both parties believe that their party’s presidential races will not be decided before the end of April.
Since 1996, six of the seven contested presidential nominations (four Republican, three Democratic races) have effectively been wrapped up by mid-March or earlier after voters in several states have had a chance to cast ballots in primaries. The only race where a candidate was not generally acknowledged as a party’s likely nominee by mid-March was the 2008 Democratic contest, when Hillary Clinton battled Barack Obama to the end of the primary and caucus calendar.
A Ballotpedia survey asked more than 200 Democratic and Republican strategists, pollsters, media consultants, activists, lobbyists and allied interest group operatives in both parties to predict when their nominating contest would effectively be decided and gave five primary options: March 1, commonly known as Super Tuesday or the “SEC” primary, due to the number of Southern states holding primaries that day; March 15, when three large states, including two presidential battlegrounds, will weigh in; April 26, by which time several Eastern states will have had their say; June 7, the date for the final round of states holding primaries; or at their party’s national convention. (Political Insiders were also given the option of volunteering another response and one GOP Insider said, “don’t know.”)
Among the 98 Democratic Insiders who responded to the survey, a plurality thought their contest should be wrapped up by the end of April, in no small part because Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is viewed as having the financial resources to keep campaigning until then. “We delay until April simply because Sanders has enough money to prolong it,” predicted one Democratic Insider. “Bernie’s money is going to make this nomination fight drag on,” echoed another.
Other Democrats feel that by mid-March, the future of their race should be clear. “At some point it will become a delegate battle and Hillary should begin getting that separation with Florida, Illinois and Ohio,” said one Democratic Insider. “If she doesn’t things get real tricky real fast for her.” Another Democrat maintained, “In a two-person race, the eventual winner will be clear by the end of March.” And a third Democrat opined, “If not by March 15, then certainly by the time of Wisconsin's primary on April 5. Hillary is going to start winning big and picking up pledged delegates, plus with the super delegates, it'll be over.”
But other Democrats suspect that if Clinton is not able to deliver a knockout to Sanders in March, their contest could extend all the way to the California primary. “With two well-funded candidates, fairly evenly split, this won’t be decided until someone has a majority of delegates,” maintained one Democratic Insider. “I doubt if either candidate will win big enough in March to force the other one out.” Another added, “As long as Bernie’s small donor holds up, he will be competitive. Hillary needs to beat him badly in March or it will go all the way to June 7.”
Democratic superdelegates, the party leaders and elected officials who are automatic convention delegates, are currently siding Clinton, the favorite of the party establishment and they can play a big role in the nominating contest. “Bernie will do well enough to prolong the real fight until California, despite HRC’s superdelegate advantage,” said one Democratic Insider. “Superdelegates will finally put it out of reach for Bernie in June and that will just fuel the fire on the left between California and the Convention,” averred another.
Among the 110, Republican Insiders who responded to the survey, many were wary that their contest could be a protracted one. While a narrow plurality of GOP Insiders thought the destiny for their party would become clear by March 15—if not sooner—almost as many felt that their nominating race could go to the end of the primary calendar or their convention.
“March 15 filters out Rubio or Bush in Florida, and Kasich in Ohio,” predicted one Republican influential. Another speculated, “If both Rubio and Bush remain in the contest until March 15, Trump will be the nominee.”
But others see a long slog to finding a nominee. “The GOP is too divided to come to a consensus before the convention,” predicted one Republican Insider.” Concurring with that sentiment, one Republican predicted the “longest delegate by delegate fight we have seen since 1976.” That year incumbent President Gerald R. Ford didn’t secure the nomination over Ronald Reagan until the convention convened in Kansas City, Mo. “Everything about this year has defied all previous experience, but, even this crowd can’t outlaw basic math,” observed a GOP Insider. “Even if we got down to three candidates after March 15, you still can’t possibly amass the delegates needed before June. I rate the chance of a second ballot convention at 50-50.”
Another Republican seemed resigned to a fight to the convention: “I just don't see it ending any time soon. Unfortunately.”
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics. He is a member of the CNN Decision Desk and will be helping to project the Democratic and Republican winners throughout the election cycle.
See also
- Presidential election in South Carolina, 2016
- Presidential election in Nevada, 2016
- Presidential Nominating Index: Clinton rules, but Sanders also rising
- Presidential Nominating Index: GOP elites tilt to Trump
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Presidential election, 2016/Polls
- 2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards
- Presidential election, 2016/Straw polls
