Your feedback ensures we stay focused on the facts that matter to you most—take our survey.
Presidential Nominating Index: Republican Insiders turn to Rubio
 Date: November 8, 2016 |
Winner: Donald Trump (R) Hillary Clinton (D) • Jill Stein (G) • Gary Johnson (L) • Vice presidential candidates |
Important dates • Nominating process • Ballotpedia's 2016 Battleground Poll • Polls • Debates • Presidential election by state • Ratings and scorecards |
2028 • 2024 • 2020 • 2016 Have you subscribed yet?
Join the hundreds of thousands of readers trusting Ballotpedia to keep them up to date with the latest political news. Sign up for the Daily Brew.
|
November 19, 2015
After a string of strong debate performances and some key endorsements, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio has displaced former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush as the choice of Republican Insiders to be their most likely standard bearer in 2016. A Ballotpedia survey of 124 Republican strategists, pollsters, media consultants, activists, lobbyists and allied interest group operatives, found that 69 ranked Rubio number one as the candidate they thought was “most likely to capture the 2016 Republican presidential nomination.”
Rubio garnered a Ballotpedia Presidential Nominating Index of .840 compared to Bush’s .548, flipping the order of the top-two contenders in a similar survey conducted two months ago. Right behind Bush in the ranking, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz earned a Ballotpedia Nominating Index of .519. That index rating was more than twice as great as Cruz’s September score. His standing in the GOP Insiders’ ranking leapt from sixth to third. Rounding out the top five were billionaire real estate developer and celebrity Donald Trump, with a nominating index of .394 and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie with a nominating index of .210.
124 Republican Insiders were asked to rank the top five contenders for their party's 2016 presidential nomination. In tallying the rankings, a first-place vote was worth 5 points, a second-place vote was worth 4 points, and so on. The Ballotpedia Presidential Nominating Index is determined by the percentage of points that each contender receives compared to the maximum possible points a contender could receive. For example, Marco earned a .840 index rating having received 84 % of the maximum possible 620 points, which is how many he would have received if all 124 Republican participants had ranked him first for the candidate most likely to win the nomination. |
The shifts among Republican Insiders reflect the sense of many that the GOP nominating race could eventually boil down to a contest between Rubio and Cruz. Many Insiders believe that the outsider’s appeal of Trump and Carson will fade when rank-and-file GOP primary voters and caucus goers get closer to making up their minds for whom they want to nominate to take on the likely Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton, in the general election. Indeed, while Insiders often evaluate prospective nominees by standards other than simply their poll numbers, it’s rare that Insiders would skip over the top two candidates in the standings and focus on other contenders.
“Rubio-Cruz is the real power-struggle of this nominating contest,” observed one GOP Insider. “Trump is a slowly deflating blimp and Jeb looks like a guy who's missed his moment.” Another echoed, “Rubio and Cruz are the only elected officials with a shot at this; Bush still fading from view.” This survey was conducted anonymously to encourage candor from the Insiders.
Despite his struggles, Bush still retains the confidence of a good chunk of GOP Insiders—27 of them tapped Bush as the most likely nominee—and he should: political insiders often reflect the sentiments of their party’s establishment and among this group just two months ago, Bush led the pack and 54 of those surveyed thought the former governor was the best bet to be their standard bearer in the fall.
Today, the path to the nomination appears more difficult for Bush, especially with the emergence of Rubio as a favorite of the party influentials. But with the backing of a well-funded SuperPac which could give his campaign the wherewithal to compete in the plethora of primaries and caucuses in early-to-mid March, some Insiders are not ready to count Bush out. “If Rubio can gain appeal from the base on immigration it is his,” explained one GOP Insider. “Otherwise Bush’s organization will head into a brokered convention with a plurality of votes. The establishment couldn't get behind Cruz [or] Trump [or] Carson if it wanted to, because then they would have to change their views.”
|
First-place vote breakdown  |
Second-place vote breakdown  |
This survey was conducted Nov. 14-18; right after the Nov. 13 terrorist attacks in Paris and those strikes were on the minds of some GOP Insiders as they assessed the prospects of their presidential field. “Paris bombing gives Rubio a chance to exhibit his knowledge and maturity,” opined one GOP Insider. “The attacks in Paris raise the war against Islamic terrorism beyond the reach of the pretenders,” added another. “Marco Rubio will be the best option when primary voters get serious.”
But that wasn’t a unanimous sentiment: “Paris helps Trump, extending possibility that he lasts as leader into the primary season,” maintained one GOP influential. “Cruz-Rubio looks more and more likely,” said another, adding: “I fear Cruz may win a one-on-one.”
Of course, politics has a way of surprising even political insiders. In a similar survey conducted by National Journal magazine in December 2007, Arizona Sen. John McCain was the third choice of Republican Insiders as the candidate most likely to capture the 2008 GOP nomination. At the top of that survey was former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani followed by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Then a surging former Arkansas governor, Mike Huckabee, upset Romney in Iowa and less than a week later, McCain went on to upset a wounded Romney in New Hampshire. Giuliani’s campaign fizzled in both of those key early contests and his candidacy quickly faded.
Comparison to September scores
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics. He has conducted elite opinion surveys for National Journal, CNN and the on-line polling firm, YouGov. This Insiders survey was conducted November 14-18.
See also
- Presidential Nominating Index: Bush remains choice of Republican Insiders
- Jeb Bush presidential campaign, 2016
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Presidential election, 2016/Polls
- 2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards
- Presidential election, 2016/Straw polls
