Insiders divided on Senate races, give nod to GOP in battle for the House
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 Date: November 8, 2016 |
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This article covering the 2016 presidential election was written outside the scope of Ballotpedia's encyclopedic coverage and does not fall under our neutrality policy or style guidelines. It is preserved as it was originally written. For our encyclopedic coverage of the 2016 election, click here.
September 12, 2016
By Jim Barnes
The battle for control of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives is a central focus for both major parties notwithstanding this year’s topsy-turvy presidential race. And the outcome of the Senate elections could well be the pivotal contest of the 2016 elections. While Democrats have reasons for optimism in thinking they can gain a majority in the upper chamber on Capitol Hill, Republicans still appear to have a solid advantage to retain their hold on the House.
Ballotpedia surveyed more than 200 Democratic and Republican strategists, pollsters, media consultants, activists, lobbyists, and allied interest groups operatives, from September 2-6, and found them divided on how likely it was that Democrats will be able to take over the Senate. Republicans concede it is basically a fifty-fifty proposition that they will be able to retain their majority. Democrats were more bullish, but not overly confident they’ll be able to prevail.
The party operatives were asked to rate the chances on a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty) that the Democrats would win the Senate. The 100 Democratic Insiders who participated in this survey gave an average score of 6.5, while 105 Republican Insiders registered an average of 5.1.
Democratic responses
Republican responses
Democratic and Republican Insiders agree that the battle for the Senate will be greatly influenced by the results of the presidential race. Both sides concur that the unpredictable presidential candidacy of Republican Donald Trump could end up being a drag on GOP Senate candidates. (Indeed, in this same survey, Insiders in both parties gave Democratic Hillary Clinton a high chance of winning the White House).
There is also a lot of agreement among the Insiders about which Senate races will be the battlegrounds in this campaign, where the best shots are for Democratic challengers to pick up seats, which Republican incumbents are favored for re-election, and which states could determine which party will be able to claim the majority. In these battlegrounds, Democratic and Republican Insiders see GOP incumbents in Ohio and Florida as likely winners, while they view GOP incumbents in Wisconsin and Illinois as headed for defeat. The balance for control of the upper chamber could come down to whether GOP incumbents in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania can hang on to their seats.
Below are the verbatim comments offered by some of the Democratic and Republican Insiders who responded to the survey on the Senate elections. They have been lightly edited for clarity. The number to the left of each comment is the 0-to-10 score that the Insider gave in rating the Democrats’ chances of winning the Senate. The survey was conducted anonymously to encourage candor from the Insiders.
Democratic Insider Responses (Senate)
4 “It looks better on paper than it is in reality. Paper doesn’t account for the tens of millions that the Super PACs will spend—and the Republicans own the Super PAC market.“
5 “We have to win a bunch of tough races and [the] Ohio debacle doesn’t help.”
5 “All depends on degree of Hispanic and African-American voters that vote against Trump and bring other Republicans down.”
5 “[Jason] Kander is moving in on [Sen. Roy] Blunt in Missouri.”
5 “We need a pretty big HRC win or else it comes down to the vagaries of outcomes in places like New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Nevada. Florida and Ohio may be both moving out of [reach], and just how strong is [former Indiana Sen.] Evan Bayh really?”
5 “The dynamics of the presidential [race] make it hard to see how it can translate down ballot in enough states to pull the Senate D’s across. Of course, 60 days is a long period of time. Races may break late.”
6 “[Illinois Sen. Mark] Kirk, [Wisconsin Sen. Ron] Johnson, [Pennsylvania Sen. Pat] Toomey and [New Hampshire Sen. Kelly] Ayotte are history. The question is whether the Dems can hold Nevada and pick up one or two more. [Ohio Sen. Rob] Portman has run the best campaign of the cycle.”
6 “Depends on HRC's numbers in the target states.”
6 “The Democrats need four additional Senate seats and Hillary will carry several important swing states.”
6 “I still don’t believe the fundamentals exist for a strong Democratic year, despite top of the ticket. Just not convinced it's a sure thing.”
6 “Democrats need to convince voters that it’s time to end the Washington gridlock and end [Senate Majority Leader Mitch] McConnell’s reign.”
6 “Odds are going up, but I am still inclined to think a lot of Republican voters will turn out, just skip Trump, and remain in the Republican column rather than split tickets.”
7 “They will squeak through, thanks to Trump.”
7 “Republicans have solidified Ohio and Florida which balances the entrance of Indiana into the list of target races. A low turnout Presidential election is unlikely to produce a Democratic sweep.”
7 “The issue is by how much so we can survive 2018.”
7 “GOP is in disarray, thanks to Trump.”
7 “If [Russ] Feingold can maintain his lead [in Wisconsin], and a few other things can go right, they are a lock.”
7 “Even if they do, will be by 51-49.”
7 “The math and the map are both working for a Dem majority.”
8 “Thanks to ‘The Donald.’”
8 “[Mitch] McConnell will be an effective Minority Leader, just block everything except [Supreme Court nominee Merrick] Garland, who’ll look like his best friend.”
8 “Things are stacking up nicely. A couple of gifts like [Evan] Bayh and [Russ] Feingold really help out. And the sleeper races of [Deborah] Ross (North Carolina) and [Patty] Judge (Iowa) really put the GOP on the defensive.”
Republican Insider Responses (Senate)
3 “[Senate Majority Leader Mitch] McConnell has proven time and time again he knows how to win even when his greatest enemy is a nominee of his own party.”
3 “Republican incumbents appear to be successfully running in this Trump environment.”
4 “[Pennsylvania Sen. Pat] Toomey, [Ohio Sen. Rob] Portman and [New Hampshire Sen. Kelly] Ayotte are proving more resourceful than expected, making takeover more of a push as Clinton fades.”
4 “[Illinois Sen. Mark] Kirk and [Wisconsin Sen. Ron] Johnson are out. [Ohio Sen. Rob] Portman and [Florida Sen. Marco] Rubio are in. If [Pennsylvania Sen. Pat] Toomey, [New Hampshire Sen. Kelly] Ayotte and [North Carolina Sen. Richard] Burr can hang on, and I expect they will, the GOP will retain control.”
4 “Good GOP candidates will win in Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania [and] Dems have to run table on rest to get there.”
4 “Depends on whether Trump rebounds or tanks the ticket.”
5 “Still 50-50. Even Democrats don’t trust Clinton. Creates an opening for GOP to hold in a horrible climate.”
5 “Too soon [to tell]. This election way too unpredictable: see presidential primaries in both parties.”
5 “Our candidates are better and running better races but it still may not matter.”
5 “Watch New Hampshire.”
5 “I predict a 50-50 tie and then it’s on to the most expensive Senate race in history as every outside group in the country piles into Virginia [for a special election to replace Tim Kaine should the Democratic ticket win the presidential election.] We [who live inside the Beltway] will have to hide in caves to escape madness.”
6 “If Donald Trump can just manage to lose by five percentage points, the Republicans should be able to survive the Don era.”
6 “The ‘checks-and-balances' argument may yet save the Senate elephant.”
6 “Yet again Trump costs the GOP in swing states with his nativist crap.”
7 “[Wisconsin Sen. Ron] Johnson and [Illinois Sen. Mark] Kirk our out, [New Hampshire Sen. Kelly] Ayotte has one foot out the door, everything else is a toss up. And running the table not likely [for Republicans].”
7 “We can survive a four-point loss [in the presidential race], but [this] looks more like a seven [point defeat].”
7 “Many of the GOP winners in 2010 are facing a very different electorate in 2010. The good news is that the tables will turn in 2018.”
7 “It comes down to Pennsylvania and New Hampshire.”
8 “I don’t think the in-trouble Republicans will be able to sufficiently separate themselves from Trump.”
House of Representatives
Ballotpedia also surveyed these same Democratic and Republican Insiders on their thoughts on the fate of the House of Representatives this November.
The party operatives were asked to rate the chances on a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty) that the Democrats would win the House. The 101 Democratic Insiders who participated in this survey gave an average score of 2.7, while 105 Republican Insiders registered an average of 2.0.
Democratic responses
Republican responses
Both sides agree that the gerrymandered nature of many House districts gives Republicans a definite advantage in retaining control of the chamber. And they don’t believe Clinton can achieve the kind of deep and broad victory at the top of the ticket that it would take to sweep in enough Democratic candidates to give the party a House majority.
Below are the verbatim comments offered by some of the Democratic and Republican Insiders who responded to the survey on the House elections. They have been lightly edited for clarity. The number to the left of each comment is the 0-to-10 score that the Insider gave in rating the Democrats’ chances of winning the House. The survey was conducted anonymously to encourage candor from the Insiders.
Democratic Insider Responses (House)
1 “Only if Trump implodes—quite possible—and Clinton wins a landslide—not gonna happen.”
1 “The maps are just built against us: Tom Delay may have been convicted, but he ultimately won.”
1 “Ten-to-15 seats are easy for Democrats. Maybe 10 more in a wave, but 30 is a tall order that would require winning Republican-leaning seats with only average Democratic candidates. This will not happen short of a Clinton blowout: 10-plus point and even then it is not likely.”
1 “You want to talk about a ‘rigged’ game? It is not, as Trump likes to blather, the election voting procedures; it is the U.S. House, which subsidizes its members activities to the point that virtually no challenger can defeat them.”
2 “Dems need a blowout of Republicans and a late surge.”
2 “Redistricting is key.”
2 “Zero candidate recruitment equals zero chance of winning the House.”
2 “Dems will pick up several seats but the number is too big to pick up in one cycle.”
2 “Pipe dream meet reality. And if HRC wins, 2018 and 2020 are gone too. Maybe 2022 will be our year. In other words, the Cubs get to celebrate before we do.”
2 “Still a long-shot, but the fact that it is a possibility is amazing.”
3 “Not this time.”
3 “HRC needs to win by six [percentage points] or more for that to happen.”
3 “Very hard to imagine. There will be significant Dem gains.”
4 “Gerrymandering makes this a really difficult task regardless of how many more votes Dems receive.”
4 “It will take a wave and if Trump implodes even more don't count it out.”
4 “Less than 50-50. The districts are so gerrymandered that it makes taking the House a landslide event.”
5 “With a little help from Donald, it's no longer a stretch.”
5 “Honestly, it all comes down to Donald Trump.”
Republican Insider Responses (House)
0 “Trump will have remarkably small down ballot effect House Dems are doomed.”
1 “Gerrymandering has it privileges and Republicans have done an excellent job of protecting their assets.”
1 “Never say never, but it would take an unforeseen tsunami for Dems to take over.”
1 “[But the battle for the House] will be closer than expected.”
1 “[House Minority Leader Nancy] Pelosi's unreachable dream.”
1 “Too gerrymandered.”
2 “Redistricting matters!”
2 “As 2012 showed, they can win the popular vote and still come up far short.”
2 “The mountain is too high in too many districts.”
3 “The number of seats truly in play is likely too small for the Democrats to recapture the House. The GOP has better candidates and Hillary Clinton's negative numbers makes it unlikely that she can pull many if any Democratic challengers across the line. If Obama couldn't do it in 2012 Hillary won't do it in 2016.”
3 “Depends on how badly Trump loses.”
4 “Too many flawed or minor league candidates on their bench to capture the House.”
See also
- Insiders see high chance of a Clinton victory
- Donald Trump presidential campaign, 2016
- Hillary Clinton presidential campaign, 2016
