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Illinois' 15th Congressional District election, 2020 (March 17 Republican primary)

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Illinois' 15th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: December 2, 2019
Primary: March 17, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
John Shimkus (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Illinois
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Illinois' 15th Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th • 13th • 14th • 15th • 16th • 17th • 18th
Illinois elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

Mary Miller won the Republican primary for Illinois' 15th Congressional District on March 17, 2020. Miller received 56.6% of the vote, followed by Darren Duncan with 21.5%, Kerry Wolff with 14.6%, and Charles Ellington with 7.3%.

Incumbent John Shimkus (R) announced that he would not seek re-election in 2020, leaving the district open.[1]

Duncan and Miller led in endorsements, fundraising, and media attention.

Both candidates highlighted their support for President Donald Trump's agenda. A Duncan campaign ad said he would “help Donald Trump pass a conservative agenda in Washington. Darren Duncan will protect the Second Amendment, defend the sanctity of life, and he'll help President Trump secure our border.” In a forum, Miller said she was “looking forward to going to Washington and supporting the America First agenda, which includes securing our borders, defending our Second Amendment rights, supporting him [Trump] as the most pro-life president we’ve ever had, and fighting against the socialist agenda.”[2][3]

Miller highlighted the endorsements she received from Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.), and the House Freedom Fund. She said, “With their support, I have an opportunity to have a big impact before I even get to Congress.” The House Freedom Fund and its affiliated super PAC, House Freedom Action, spent $489,000 to support Miller.[4] In response to the satellite spending, Duncan said, “Mary Miller has sold out central and southern Illinois for hundreds of thousands of dollars from D.C. special interests.” U.S. Reps. Mike Conaway (R-Texas) and Rick Crawford (R-Ark.) endorsed Duncan.[5]

In the 2018 general election, Shimkus (R) defeated Kevin Gaither (D) 71% to 29%. All three major race rating outlets viewed the general election as Safe/Solid Republican. The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+21, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 21 percentage points more Republican than the national average. Click here to learn more about what's at stake in the general election.

Click on candidate names below to view their key messages:


Duncan
Miller


Democratic Party For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
Grey.png For more information about the general election, click here.

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Illinois modified its primary election process as follows:

  • Candidate filing procedures: Candidates for state-level office were exempted from filing statements of economic interests for the duration of the governor's disaster proclamation period and for 30 days thereafter.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.


Candidates and election results

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Illinois District 15

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Mary Miller
Mary Miller
 
57.4
 
48,129
Image of Darren Duncan
Darren Duncan
 
21.8
 
18,309
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Kerry Wolff
 
13.4
 
11,208
Image of Charles Ellington
Charles Ellington Candidate Connection
 
7.4
 
6,200

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 83,846
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Candidate profiles

This section includes candidate profiles created in one of two ways. Either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey or Ballotpedia staff created a profile after identifying the candidate as noteworthy.[6] Ballotpedia staff compiled profiles based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements.

Darren Duncan

Image of Darren Duncan

WebsiteFacebookTwitterYouTube

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: 

Vermilion County Treasurer (Assumed office: 2017), Vermilion County Board

Biography:  Duncan graduated from Western Illinois University in 1993 with a degree in political science, law administration, and agriculture. After receiving his degree, Duncan worked on his family’s farm.


Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.

A Duncan ad said, “Since Darren has been running for Congress, he has never sold out to the highest bidder. He will never sell out on us.” He said, “Mary Miller has sold out central and southern Illinois for hundreds of thousands of dollars from D.C. special interests.”

Duncan said he “supports strengthening security along our southern borders to stop the flow of illegal immigration into the United States.” He also said the Democratic House was “choking off funding the administration and the courts need to work through the backlog of applicants.”

Duncan said he would “help Donald Trump pass a conservative agenda in Washington.”

Show sources

Sources: YouTube, "Republican Candidate Forum," accessed March 11, 2020, Darren Duncan 2020 campaign website, “Issues,” accessed March 10, 2020, YouTube, "Darren Duncan for Congress- 'Natalie'," accessed March 11, 2020, Facebook, "Darren Duncan 2020 campaign," accessed March 10, 2020; Darren Duncan 2020 campaign website, "About Darren," accessed March 11, 2020, Vote Smart, "Darren Duncan's Biography," accessed March 24, 2020

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Illinois District 15 in 2020.

Charles Ellington

Image of Charles Ellington

WebsiteFacebook

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Submitted Biography:  "I'm a Christian, conservative, family physician, licensed attorney who believes in the Constitution, the rule of law, and the principles upon which our country was founded. And I'm not afraid to fight. I was born and raised in rural central Illinois. My family and I still live in my hometown of Camargo. I graduated from Parkland College, the University of Illinois, and received joint degrees in Law and Medicine from Southern Illinois University. I trained as a family physician at SIU Decatur Family Medicine Residency Program and completed a health policy fellowship at Georgetown University. I am currently an assistant professor of Family and Community Medicine and Director of Rural Health at Southern Illinois University School of Medicine. I practice in the rural Amish community of Arthur where I teach medical students and train Family Medicine residents."

Key Messages

To read this candidate's full survey responses, click here.

Stop Sham Impeachment

Completely overhaul Obamacare

Stop the war on coal

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Illinois District 15 in 2020.

Mary Miller

Image of Mary Miller

WebsiteFacebookTwitterYouTube

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Biography:  Miller received degrees in business management and elementary education from Eastern Illinois University. She worked as a farmer, business manager, and teacher throughout her career.


Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.

Miller highlighted the endorsements she received from Rep. Jim Justice, Rep. Mark Meadows, and the House Freedom Fund. She said, “With their support, I have an opportunity to have a big impact before I even get to Congress.”

Miller said she was “looking forward to going to Washington and supporting the America First agenda, which includes securing our borders, defending our Second Amendment rights, supporting him [Trump] as the most pro-life president we’ve ever had, and fighting against the socialist agenda.”

Miller’s website said, “Spending in Washington D.C. is out of control. The $23 trillion national debt is unacceptable.”

Show sources

Sources: Chicago Tribune, "Who is Mary Miller, Republican candidate for 15th Congressional District?," accessed March 11, 2020, YouTube, "Republican Candidate Forum," accessed March 11, 2020, Mary Miller 2020 campaign website, “Issues,” accessed March 10, 2020; Mary Miller 2020 campaign website, "Meet Mary," accessed March 11, 2020

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Illinois District 15 in 2020.


Endorsements

This section lists endorsements issued in this election. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please email us.


Republican primary endorsements
Endorsement Duncan Miller
Newspapers and editorials
Chicago Tribune[7] ✔
Elected officials
U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz[7] ✔
U.S. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R)[7] ✔
U.S. House Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R)[8] ✔
U.S. Rep. Mark Meadows (R)[7] ✔
U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik (R)[7] ✔
U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan (R)[7] ✔
U.S. Rep. Mike Conaway (R)[9] ✔
U.S. Rep. Rick Crawford (R)[9] ✔
State Sen. Jason Barickman (R)[5] ✔
State Rep. Tom Bennett (R)[5] ✔
State Rep. John Cavaletto (R)[5] ✔
State Rep. Brad Halbrook (R)[7] ✔
State Rep. Charlie Meier (R)[7] ✔
State Rep. John Cabello (R)[7] ✔
State Rep. Blaine Wilhour (R)[10] ✔
State Rep. Darren Bailey (R)[11] ✔
Cumberland County Board Chairman Roy Clapp[7] ✔
Vermilion County Board Member Chuck Nesbitt[7] ✔
Effingham County Board Member Dave Campbell[7] ✔
Crawford County Board Member Don Goupil[7] ✔
Champaign County Board Member Jim Goss[5] ✔
Clinton County Board Member Brad Knolhoff[5] ✔
Jasper County Board Chairman Ron Heltsley[5] ✔
Saline County Treasurer Jeff Murrie[5] ✔
Marion County Treasurer Gary Purcell[5] ✔
Moultrie County Treasurer Stephanie Helmuth[12] ✔
Wayne County Circuit Clerk Pam Southerd[5] ✔
White County Coroner Chris Marsh[5] ✔
Mount Carmel Mayor Joe Judge[13] ✔
Individuals
Former Deputy Gov. Bob Winchester (R)[14] ✔
Former state Sen. Judy Myers (R)[15] ✔
Former state Rep. Jeanne M. Ives (R)[7] ✔
Former state Rep. Bill Black (R)[5] ✔
Former Champaign County Treasurer John Farney[5] ✔
Wayne County Republican Chairman Ron Woodrow[16] ✔
Crawford County Republican Chairman Don Wagoner[7] ✔
Hamilton County GOP Vice Chairman Michael Little[17] ✔
Champaign County Young Republicans Chairman Maria Vasquez[18] ✔
Organizations
A.B.A.T.E. Illinois[7] ✔
Central Republican Committee of Hamilton County[19] ✔
FreedomWorks[7] ✔
House Freedom Fund[7] ✔
Illinois Citizens for Life Federal PAC[20] ✔
Illinois Family[7] ✔
Illinois Farm Bureau ACTIVATOR[7] ✔
Illinois Right to Life Action[7] ✔
Rural America Counts PAC[9] ✔
Susan B. Anthony List[21] ✔

Timeline

  • February 19, 2020: The Vermilion County Republican Women's Club hosted a candidate forum for all four Republican candidates.[22]

Campaign themes

See also: Campaign themes

Campaign themes were available on the following candidates' campaign websites as of March 4, 2020.

Darren Duncan

“

Immigration

Darren’s family has been farming in Vermilion County since 1820, shortly after Illinois became a state. His ancestors came to this country in search of freedom and opportunity and Darren knows many are still coming to the United States with those intentions today. But he also knows many are skipping the line.

Darren supports strengthening security along our southern borders to stop the flow of illegal immigration into the United States. He also understands President Trump and his administration have been dealing with a humanitarian crisis at the border without the necessary resources from the Democratic Congress. Darren believes all applicants for asylum should have their case reviewed in a timely fashion, and Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats should stop choking off funding the administration and the courts need to work through the backlog of applicants.

Trade

As a lifelong farmer, Darren Duncan understands we need markets around the world to buy our products if he’s going to get good prices when he takes a load of corn or soybeans into his local grain elevator. Darren also recognizes we need fair trade practices from other countries and trade deals that enforce penalties when they try to game the system. That’s why Darren supports President Trump’s efforts to strengthen trade deals for American farmers and manufacturers.

Darren strongly supports President Trump's USMCA trade agreement with Mexico and Canada. He also says President Trump should continue to hold the Chinese government accountable for unfair trade practices but should strike a deal that sends more of our products to China.

Government Spending

Government spending has exploded. When President Obama took office in 2009, the national debt was around $10.6 trillion, today, that number is over $23 trillion. That’s nearly $13 trillion dollars in new debt in a decade with no plan to pay it back. The madness must stop.

When you look at the plans of socialist Democrats in Washington, their answer is massively higher taxes with enormous amounts of new spending. Darren knows that’s not the solution.

Darren believes the first thing Congress should do is cut spending. Darren’s plan calls for Congress cutting the $134 billion dollar budget deficit and passing a balanced budget. Darren knows you must stop digging the hole if you’re ever going to fill it.

Agriculture

Darren has spent his life working the ground and raising the crops that help feed the world. He’s the seventh generation to farm that land and he knows it takes good policy to help expand markets for farmers.

Darren strongly believes in fair, strong trade deals to send more grain, meat, and food products around the world. He believes in a strong Renewable Fuel Standard to use more Illinois corn and soybeans for ethanol and biodiesel to produce a cheaper, cleaner burning, renewable fuel.

Farm income is down nearly 50% in parts of the state over the past three years, leading to struggles for thousands of farmers. Darren knows that strengthening markets and demand for the corn, soybeans, meat and poultry raised in central and southern Illinois will benefit us all.

Rebuilding Rural Communities

Darren and his family live in Rossville, Illinois; population 1,257. As a lifelong farmer, he knows the struggles facing the middle class in central and southern Illinois.

Darren believes Congress should look more like the public and less like Nancy Pelosi and her $30 million net worth. In fact, over 200 members of Congress are millionaires.

Darren’s plan to rebuild the middle class starts with improving infrastructure. Too many roads, bridges, and waterways in rural communities are in shambles, making it hard to lure new business to the area. He supports lowering taxes on small businesses to help them grow without the crushing weight of the government holding them back.

Furthermore, Darren knows we won’t be able to keep small towns alive if there are no jobs left when our children graduate from high school and college. He supports direct investment in small towns to help lure new jobs, tech, and manufacturing into our small towns to take advantage of the young people we grow without their having to move to Chicago, Indianapolis, or St. Louis.

Health Care

Darren believes every American who needs access to health care should have access to health care. He supports a system that provides a safety net and protection for those who can’t afford their own insurance. He also believes no American should be rejected for treatment or coverage due to a pre-existing condition.

Darren also believes that government intervention into the health care system is not the solution. Darren’s position is the government rarely does anything better than the private sector and that competition drives innovation. He strongly opposes any multi trillion-dollar boondoggle of government run, socialized “Medicare for all” proposed by Democratic Presidential candidates.

Darren supports a health care plan that redirects federal premium subsidies and Medicaid expansion money into grants to states. States would be required to use the money to establish programs that make health insurance affordable regardless of income or medical condition.

Second Amendment

As an avid trap shooter, Darren Duncan strongly supports our constitutional rights to keep and bear arms. He believes Democratic plans to seize guns and ban others is unconstitutional and goes against the freedoms our nation was founded on.

I believe in stiff federal penalties for those who unlawfully use or purchase a gun on the black market, and those who sell guns illegally on the black market, especially through interstate "straw man" purchases.[23]

”
—Darren Duncan 2020 campaign website[24]

Charles Ellington

“

Healthcare

Obamacare is a fiasco. It created a bureaucratic nightmare that put huge burdens on physicians and patients. Yet it failed to address significant problems with our healthcare system, especially in rural America. Left behind the Democratic Party, rural America has been mocked and derided by liberal elites for far too long. I will work to completely overhaul Obamacare. My health plan won’t be written by a lying MIT economist or an east coast liberal elitist who wants an economy crippling 52 trillion dollar Medicare for All program. Instead, It will be written by a practicing rural family physician who not only understands health law and policy but most importantly understands the day to day problems patients face. And it will be based on facts, not fantasy. Access to a primary care physician over time has been repeatedly shown to make you healthier, make you live longer, and cost the system less money. This needs to be the centerpiece of any healthcare plan. Obamacare did the exact opposite. Half of all service provided come from primary care, yet under Obamacare primary care only receives 2-3% of the total healthcare spending. Rural physicians and hospitals are hit the hardest. They operate with razor-thin margins with little or no support to meet these new administrative burdens. These insane regulations have caused rural doctors to close their practices and have caused many rural hospitals to close or be at risk of closing. When rural hospitals are gone, so is the largest employer in the community. I will work to completely overhaul Obamacare putting the focus where it needs to be—on primary care, supporting doctors who work in rural and underserved communities, helping rural hospitals stay open, and ending crippling bureaucratic regulations.

Also, Obamacare does nothing to fix the shortage of primary care physicians, especially in rural America. Residency training programs, which are funded by the federal government, often produce primary care physicians that do not practice in rural or underserved communities. Many of their graduates do not even practice in the United States. This needs to change. I will propose legislation to hold these programs accountable. They need to train young doctors to practice where they are needed most—right here in the United States and in rural and underserved communities. I will also work to strengthen and increase support for community health centers and rural health centers. These clinics are on the front lines providing much-needed services for the most vulnerable populations every day. We also need more primary care training programs. I will work to create partnerships between training programs and the VA system. More teaching programs connected to VA hospitals and clinics will enhance the education and training of young doctors, increase the likelihood they will practice in the VA system, and improve access to care for our veterans. I will do everything in my power to help our veterans to get better health care, better mental health services, and a VA system that works for them. They fought for us, it’s time we fight for them.

IMPEACHMENT

Make no mistake, the foundations of democracy are under attack. Nancy Pelosi and the Washington Democrats are bound and determined to overturn the will of the American people and reverse the results of the 2016 election. No president has done more good for the American people with less time and a more hostile Congress than President Donald J. Trump. Democrats are furious that their anti-American, socialist, liberal policies are not being enacted and the harm of the Obama administration is being reversed.

The impeachment hearings are nothing but a farce. The investigation is a witch hunt. Just as Democrats made up the phony “Russian collusion” charges, they are taking the President’s words out of context to hide the crimes of the son of their favorite Democrat nominee for president. God willing, the Democrats will lose their majority in 2020, however, if they remain in power, this anti-democratic process will not stop. As your congressman, I will fight with our president to preserve the will of the people and end this phony impeachment process.

Energy and Economy

There is a strong relationship between health and wealth. When people have good jobs that pay a good wage, they are more likely to be healthier. When people are healthy, they are more likely to feel like working and being productive employees. The two fit together like hand in glove. Under President Trump, the economy is booming and unemployment is at a fifty-year low. However, here in the 15th District unemployment is over 2 1/2 times the national average. More can be done. The Democrats war on coal needs to end. We have enough coal in this country to last 300 years. Further, coal is necessary for the production of steel. When we rely on China for steel production we put our entire national security at risk. Further, when the coal mines closed down, many jobs were lost and many local economies suffered. However, carbon capture technology and near zero-emission coal plants hold great promise. They could provide numerous good-paying jobs and revitalize the coal industry and the economy of our region. I will fight to put these facilities right here in our district where it’s already been shown they can be feasibly built. When successfully established these facilities will be a model for the rest of the county and even the world.

Taxes and Spending

President Donald Trump’s tax reform has done more to stimulate the American economy than Obama’s stimulus package could ever dream of doing, but that is just one step. We need to make these tax cuts for the middle class permanent; the American people deserve to keep their hard-earned money.

However, this is not enough, and this is where Republicans are just as culpable as the Democrats. Entrenched powers in Washington DC continue to pass unbalanced budgets. The federal deficit is approaching $1 trillion. This is unsustainable. It is time for our leaders to make the tough choices needed for the American people. As your congressman, I will fight for a balanced budget constitutional amendment, forcing congress to only pass budgets that are within our means. I will fight for entitlement reform, cutting one of the largest costs on our federal government and bringing our tax books back in balance. Common sense says you cannot spend more than you take in. The government finally needs to operate like a business, with sound bookkeeping and accounting.[23]

”
—Charles Ellington 2020 campaign website[25]

Mary Miller

“

Border Security

America has a long history of immigration and much of what has made America a great country has been the result of people coming to this country to make a new life for themselves and their families. Legal immigration is and will always be an important part of what makes America a great country.

But illegal immigration is creating a strain on our national economy and the security of our citizens. MS 13 gangs are terrorizing American cities and American taxpayers are paying millions to cover healthcare and welfare costs for non-citizens.

It is time to get serious about border security. Mary Miller OPPOSES sanctuary cities and she SUPPORTS building a wall on our southern border and she SUPPORTS the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agency. She will stand with President Trump in securing America's border.

Healthcare

Most of the ideas surrounding healthcare do little to actually lower prices. Shifting the cost of healthcare does not lower prices - it merely changes who pays the costs.

Mary Miller's plan for healthcare is to:

Allow insurance companies to offer plans that cross state lines;

Allow workers to keep their healthcare plans even when they change jobs;

Adopt policies that will create more price transparency so that patients know what the cost of healthcare services really are;

Create more competition which lowers prices;

Enact tort reform to lower the cost of liability insurance for medical professionals.

Mary Miller believes the key to lowering the cost of healthcare must come from free market solutions - not government bureaucracy.

Taxes

The US unemployment rate is the lowest since 1969. The great economy is being fueled by the Trump tax cuts.

Mary Miller SUPPORTS keeping taxes low and she will fight to make the Trump tax cuts permanent and keep Americans working.

Socialism

There is a disturbing trend among America's youth as they are drawn to socialism as a form of government.

Venezuela stands as an example of what socialism does to a country. The unemployment rate in Venezuela is expected to reach 47 percent in the next year and 90 percent of the country lives in poverty.

Socialism may be the latest trend, but socialism destroys lives. Mary Miller will fight against efforts to make America a socialist nation.

Green New Deal

The Green New Deal is being backed by the far-left extremists who now control the Democrat party.

The cost of the Green New Deal is tens of trillions of dollars. The Green New Deal would raise the cost of motor fuel and would impoverish rural families. Mary Miller will fight to protect rural residents by opposing radical ideas like the Green New Deal.

Sanctity of Human Life

Mary Miller is pro-life. She will OPPOSE efforts to undermine and eliminate the Hyde Amendment, which makes it illegal to use federal funds to pay for abortions.

Miller also will SUPPORT efforts to defund Planned Parenthood, the nation's largest abortion provider.

Second Amendment

Mary Miller is a strong supporter of Second Amendment rights. She will OPPOSE any legislation that requires honest gun owners to give up their firearms to federal agencies. She believes the best way to curb violence is to enforce existing laws instead of enacting more laws that only serve to undermine the rights of honest citizens.

Spending

Spending in Washington D.C. is out of control. The $22 trillion deficit is unacceptable. Mary Miller will fight for an end to the Continuing Resolutions that spend money the government simply does not have.

She will fight for an actual budget with spending priorities that put the safety and security of our nation first.

Agriculture

Mary Miller is the wife of a farmer and she has been instrumental in managing their family farm. She understands the agriculture life as she lives it every day.

Agriculture is a multi-billion-dollar industry in Illinois. Farmers in Illinois help feed the world. Mary Miller is committed to fighting for policies that will preserve, protect and promote the agriculture industry in Illinois and throughout the nation.

Term limits

One of the most significant ways to drain the swamp would be to enact term limits for members of Congress. Career politicians in Washington D.C. are interested solely in preserving and protecting their own political power.

Legislators like Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer have been in Washington D.C. long enough. We need term limits if we hope to ever drain the swamp in Washington D.C.

Deregulation

The Unemployment Rate in the United States is the lowest since the 1960s. This is due in large part to the President's efforts to roll back burdensome regulations on American businesses.

Mary Miller will fight to continue these efforts. It is imperative that we free the American economy from the limitations of overburdensome business regulations.

Fair Trade

Mary Miller believes that government should not interfere with the rights of American citizens to trade with other countries.

She believes trade should be, above all, fair. She will fight for trade deals that do not penalize American businesses and American consumers. Free market solutions are what is needed to grow the American economy.[23]

”
—Mary Miller 2020 campaign website[26]

Kerry Wolff

“
  • Fight for a Smaller, Less Intrusive Government
  • Fight for Lower Taxes
  • Reduce the Deficit and Push a Balanced Budget Amendment
  • Fight for Life - Protect the unborn
  • Protect our 2nd Amendment Rights
  • Common Sense Immigration Reform through Secure Borders & Clear Paths to Citizenship
  • Repair our Healthcare System through Free Markets, not Socialism
  • Preserve Religious Liberties
  • Support Agriculture & Rural Communities[23]
 ”
—Kerry Wolff’s 2020 campaign website[27]

Campaign advertisements

This section shows advertisements released in this race. Ads released by campaigns and, if applicable, satellite groups are embedded or linked below. If you are aware of advertisements that should be included, please email us.

Darren Duncan

Supporting Duncan

"Natalie" - Duncan campaign ad, released March 10, 2020
"Believe" - Duncan campaign ad, released February 25, 2020
"He'll Help Trump" - Duncan campaign ad, released January 25, 2020
"God. Family. Country." - Duncan campaign ad, released January 8, 2020
"Not A Regular Politician" - Duncan campaign ad, released December 2, 2019

Opposing Miller

"Mary Miller Can't Answer That" - Duncan campaign ad, released February 27, 2020

Mary Miller

"Hard Work" - Miller campaign ad, released March 10, 2020

Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls

If you are aware of polls conducted in this race, please email us.

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[28] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[29]

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Darren Duncan Republican Party $315,384 $314,896 $6,935 As of December 31, 2020
Charles Ellington Republican Party $16,999 $16,917 $82 As of June 30, 2020
Mary Miller Republican Party $700,257 $581,556 $118,701 As of December 31, 2020
Kerry Wolff Republican Party $12,744 $12,744 $0 As of December 31, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Satellite spending

See also: Satellite spending

Satellite spending, commonly referred to as outside spending, describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[30][31][32]

This section lists satellite spending in this race reported by news outlets in alphabetical order. If you are aware of spending that should be included, please email us.

  • The House Freedom Fund and its affiliated super PAC, House Freedom Action, spent roughly $489,000 to support Miller.[4]


Debates and forums

February 19 forum

The Vermilion County Republican Women's Club hosted a candidate forum for all four Republican candidates.[22]

Watch a full video of the forum below:

February 19 Vermilion County Republican Women's Club forum

Primaries in Illinois

A primary election is an election in which registered voters select a candidate that they believe should be a political party's candidate for elected office to run in the general election. They are also used to choose convention delegates and party leaders. Primaries are state-level and local-level elections that take place prior to a general election. In Illinois, state law provides for a closed primary where a voter must be affiliated with a party to vote in that party's primary. However, voters state their affiliation at the polls and any voter may change their affiliation on the day of the primary. A voter's eligibility to vote a party's ballot may be challenged.[33]

For information about which offices are nominated via primary election, see this article.

What's at stake in the general election?

U.S. House elections were held on November 3, 2020, and coincided with the 2020 presidential election. All 435 House districts were up for election, and the results determined control of the U.S. House in the 117th Congress.

At the time of the election, Democrats had a 232-197 advantage over Republicans. There was one Libertarian member, and there were five vacancies. Republicans needed to gain a net 21 seats to win control of the House. Democrats needed to gain seats or lose fewer than 14 net seats to keep their majority.

In the 2018 midterm election, Democrats had a net gain of 40 seats, winning a 235-200 majority in the House. Heading into the 2018 election, Republicans had a 235-193 majority with seven vacancies.

In the 25 previous House elections that coincided with a presidential election, the president's party had gained House seats in 16 elections and lost seats in nine. In years where the president's party won districts, the average gain was 18. In years where the president's party lost districts, the average loss was 27. Click here for more information on presidential partisanship and down-ballot outcomes.


General election race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[34]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[35][36][37]

Race ratings: Illinois' 15th Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+21, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 21 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Illinois' 15th Congressional District the 29th most Republican nationally.[38]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.10. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.10 points toward that party.[39]

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Eleven of 102 Illinois counties—10.8 percent—are Pivot Counties. These are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Alexander County, Illinois 8.30% 13.65% 12.62%
Carroll County, Illinois 26.69% 1.49% 4.81%
Fulton County, Illinois 14.93% 11.04% 21.33%
Henderson County, Illinois 28.43% 12.25% 17.67%
Henry County, Illinois 20.99% 3.08% 7.74%
Jo Daviess County, Illinois 14.64% 1.16% 10.49%
Knox County, Illinois 2.91% 17.37% 19.89%
Mercer County, Illinois 20.36% 7.39% 11.91%
Putnam County, Illinois 19.92% 1.82% 15.64%
Warren County, Illinois 16.50% 5.47% 8.08%
Whiteside County, Illinois 6.18% 17.02% 17.56%

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Illinois with 55.8 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 38.8 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Illinois voted Republican 50 percent of the time and Democratic 50 percent of the time. Illinois voted Democratic in all five elections from 2000 to 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Illinois. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[40][41]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 75 out of 118 state House districts in Illinois with an average margin of victory of 39.2 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 76 out of 118 state House districts in Illinois with an average margin of victory of 42.1 points. Clinton won 13 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 43 out of 118 state House districts in Illinois with an average margin of victory of 15 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 42 out of 118 state House districts in Illinois with an average margin of victory of 22.1 points. Trump won four districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.


District election history

2018

See also: Illinois' 15th Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Illinois District 15

Incumbent John Shimkus defeated Kevin Gaither in the general election for U.S. House Illinois District 15 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of John Shimkus
John Shimkus (R)
 
70.9
 
181,294
Image of Kevin Gaither
Kevin Gaither (D)
 
29.1
 
74,309
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.0
 
5

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 255,608
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Illinois District 15

Kevin Gaither defeated Carl Spoerer in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Illinois District 15 on March 20, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Kevin Gaither
Kevin Gaither
 
62.1
 
17,300
Image of Carl Spoerer
Carl Spoerer
 
37.9
 
10,573

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 27,873
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Illinois District 15

Incumbent John Shimkus advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Illinois District 15 on March 20, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of John Shimkus
John Shimkus
 
100.0
 
73,825

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 73,825
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2016

See also: Illinois' 15th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent John Shimkus (R) was unopposed in the general election on November 8, 2016. Shimkus defeated Kyle McCarter in the Republican primary on March 15, 2016.[42][43]

U.S. House, Illinois District 15 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Shimkus Incumbent 100% 274,554
Total Votes 274,554
Source: Illinois State Board of Elections


U.S. House, Illinois District 15 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Shimkus Incumbent 60.4% 76,547
Kyle McCarter 39.6% 50,245
Total Votes 126,792
Source: Illinois State Board of Elections

State profile

See also: Illinois and Illinois elections, 2020
USA Illinois location map.svg

Partisan data

The information in this section was current as of March 5, 2020.

Presidential voting pattern

Congressional delegation

State executives

  • Democrats held six of 13 state executive offices. The Illinois Commerce Commission was composed of individuals with different affiliations. Elections for the other six offices were nonpartisan.
  • Illinois' governor was Democrat J.B. Pritzker.

State legislature

Illinois Party Control: 1992-2025
Nineteen years of Democratic trifectas  •  Two years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R D D D D D D D
Senate D R R R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
House D D D R R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D

Illinois quick stats
  • Became a state in 1818
  • 21st state admitted to the United States
  • Illinois' population doubled every 10 years between 1820 and 1860,
    making it one of the fastest-growing places in the world at the time.[45]
  • Members of the Illinois State Senate: 59
  • Members of the Illinois House of Representatives: 118
  • U.S. senators: 2
  • U.S. representatives: 18
More Illinois coverage on Ballotpedia:


Demographic data for Illinois
 IllinoisU.S.
Total population:12,839,047316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):55,5193,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:72.3%73.6%
Black/African American:14.3%12.6%
Asian:5%5.1%
Native American:0.2%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
Two or more:2.2%3%
Hispanic/Latino:16.5%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:87.9%86.7%
College graduation rate:32.3%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$57,574$53,889
Persons below poverty level:16.8%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Illinois.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.


See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Twitter, "Jordan Haverly on August 30, 2019," accessed August 30, 2019
  2. ↑ YouTube, "Darren Duncan for Congress- 'He'll Help Trump'," accessed March 11, 2020
  3. ↑ YouTube, "Republican Candidate Forum," accessed March 11, 2020
  4. ↑ 4.0 4.1 Center for Responsive Politics, "Illinois District 15 Race," accessed March 11, 2020
  5. ↑ 5.00 5.01 5.02 5.03 5.04 5.05 5.06 5.07 5.08 5.09 5.10 5.11 5.12 Facebook, "Darren Duncan 2020 campaign," accessed March 10, 2020
  6. ↑ Candidate Connection surveys completed before September 26, 2019, were not used to generate candidate profiles. In battleground primaries, Ballotpedia based its selection of noteworthy candidates on polling, fundraising, and noteworthy endorsements. In battleground general elections, all major party candidates and any other candidates with the potential to impact the outcome of the race were included.
  7. ↑ 7.00 7.01 7.02 7.03 7.04 7.05 7.06 7.07 7.08 7.09 7.10 7.11 7.12 7.13 7.14 7.15 7.16 7.17 7.18 7.19 7.20 Facebook, "Mary Miller 2020 campaign," accessed March 10, 2020
  8. ↑ Facebook, "Mary Miller for Congress on March 12, 2020," accessed March 17, 2020
  9. ↑ 9.0 9.1 9.2 Effingham Radio, "House GOP Agriculture Leaders Endorse Darren Duncan For Congress," accessed March 10, 2020
  10. ↑ Facebook, "Mary Miller for Congress on March 16, 2020," accessed March 17, 2020
  11. ↑ Facebook, "Mary Miller for Congress on March 12, 2020," accessed March 17, 2020
  12. ↑ Facebook, "Darren Duncan for Congress on March 16, 2020," accessed March 17, 2020
  13. ↑ Facebook, "Mary Miller for Congress on March 16, 2020," accessed March 17, 2020
  14. ↑ Facebook, "Darren Duncan for Congress on March 15, 2020," accessed March 17, 2020
  15. ↑ Facebook, "Darren Duncan for Congress on March 15, 2020," accessed March 17, 2020
  16. ↑ Facebook, "Darren Duncan for Congress on March 14, 2020," accessed March 17, 2020
  17. ↑ Facebook, "Darren Duncan for Congress on March 15, 2020," accessed March 17, 2020
  18. ↑ Facebook, "Mary Miller for Congress on March 16, 2020," accessed March 17, 2020
  19. ↑ Facebook, "Darren Duncan for Congress on March 14, 2020," accessed March 17, 2020
  20. ↑ Facebook, "Mary Miller for Congress on March 11, 2020," accessed March 17, 2020
  21. ↑ Facebook, "Susan B. Anthony List on March 13, 2020," accessed March 17, 2020
  22. ↑ 22.0 22.1 Vermilion County Republican Women's Club, "FEBRUARY 19, 2020, CONGRESSIONAL FORUM," accessed March 10, 2020
  23. ↑ 23.0 23.1 23.2 23.3 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
  24. ↑ Darren Duncan 2020 campaign website, “Issues,” accessed March 10, 2020
  25. ↑ Charles Ellington 2020 campaign website, “Issues,” accessed March 10, 2020
  26. ↑ Mary Miller 2020 campaign website, “Issues,” accessed March 10, 2020
  27. ↑ Kerry Wolff 2020 campaign website, “Issues,” accessed March 10, 2020
  28. ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  29. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  30. ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed September 22, 2015
  31. ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed September 22, 2015
  32. ↑ National Review.com, "Why the Media Hate Super PACs," November 6, 2015
  33. ↑ Illinois General Assembly, "Ill. Rev. Stat. ch. 10, § 5/7–59," accessed October 20, 2025
  34. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  35. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  36. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  37. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  38. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  39. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  40. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  41. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  42. ↑ Illinois State Board of Elections, "Candidate List," accessed November 30, 2015
  43. ↑ The New York Times, "Illinois Primary Results," March 15, 2016
  44. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013
  45. ↑ Encyclopedia.com, "Illinois," accessed May 7, 2019


Illinois' current delegation to the United States Congress
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Mike Bost (R)
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