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Illinois' 15th Congressional District election, 2020

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Illinois' 15th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: December 2, 2019
Primary: March 17, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
John Shimkus (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Illinois
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Illinois' 15th Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th • 13th • 14th • 15th • 16th • 17th • 18th
Illinois elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 15th Congressional District of Illinois, held elections in 2020.

Mary Miller won election in the general election for U.S. House Illinois District 15.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
December 2, 2019
March 17, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican John Shimkus, who was first elected in 1996. On August 30, 2019, Shimkus announced that he would not seek re-election in 2020.


Illinois' 15th Congressional District is located in eastern Illinois. It includes Clark, Clay, Clinton, Coles, Crawford, Cumberland, Douglas, Edgar, Edwards, Effingham, Fayette, Gallatin, Hamilton, Hardin, Jasper, Johnson, Lawrence, Marion, Massac, Moultrie, Pope, Richland, Saline, Shelby, Vermilion, Wabash, Washington, Wayne, and White counties. Portions of Bond, Champaign, Ford, and Madison counties also lie within the district.[1]

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Illinois' 15th Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 25.9 26.6
Republican candidate Republican Party 72.2 73.4
Difference 46.3 46.8

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Illinois modified its absentee/mail-in voting and candidate filing procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: Mail-in ballot applications were sent to all registered voters in the general election who cast ballots in the 2018 general election, the 2019 consolidated election, or the 2020 primary election.
  • Candidate filing procedures: The following changes were made to the filing procedures for unaffiliated and new-party candidates: petition signature requirements were reduced to 10 percent of their original numbers; candidates were authorized to collect petition signatures electronically; and the filing deadline was extended to July 20, 2020.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

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Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Illinois District 15

Mary Miller defeated Erika Weaver in the general election for U.S. House Illinois District 15 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Mary Miller
Mary Miller (R)
 
73.4
 
244,947
Image of Erika Weaver
Erika Weaver (D) Candidate Connection
 
26.6
 
88,559

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 333,506
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Illinois District 15

Erika Weaver defeated Kevin Gaither, Craig Morton, and John Hursey Jr. in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Illinois District 15 on March 17, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Erika Weaver
Erika Weaver Candidate Connection
 
51.9
 
17,778
Image of Kevin Gaither
Kevin Gaither
 
22.3
 
7,653
Image of Craig Morton
Craig Morton
 
19.2
 
6,576
Image of John Hursey Jr.
John Hursey Jr. Candidate Connection
 
6.6
 
2,244

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 34,251
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Illinois District 15

Mary Miller defeated Darren Duncan, Kerry Wolff, and Charles Ellington in the Republican primary for U.S. House Illinois District 15 on March 17, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Mary Miller
Mary Miller
 
57.4
 
48,129
Image of Darren Duncan
Darren Duncan
 
21.8
 
18,309
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Kerry Wolff
 
13.4
 
11,208
Image of Charles Ellington
Charles Ellington Candidate Connection
 
7.4
 
6,200

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 83,846
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Eleven of 102 Illinois counties—10.8 percent—are Pivot Counties. These are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Alexander County, Illinois 8.30% 13.65% 12.62%
Carroll County, Illinois 26.69% 1.49% 4.81%
Fulton County, Illinois 14.93% 11.04% 21.33%
Henderson County, Illinois 28.43% 12.25% 17.67%
Henry County, Illinois 20.99% 3.08% 7.74%
Jo Daviess County, Illinois 14.64% 1.16% 10.49%
Knox County, Illinois 2.91% 17.37% 19.89%
Mercer County, Illinois 20.36% 7.39% 11.91%
Putnam County, Illinois 19.92% 1.82% 15.64%
Warren County, Illinois 16.50% 5.47% 8.08%
Whiteside County, Illinois 6.18% 17.02% 17.56%

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Illinois with 55.8 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 38.8 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Illinois voted Republican 50 percent of the time and Democratic 50 percent of the time. Illinois voted Democratic in all five elections from 2000 to 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Illinois. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[2][3]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 75 out of 118 state House districts in Illinois with an average margin of victory of 39.2 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 76 out of 118 state House districts in Illinois with an average margin of victory of 42.1 points. Clinton won 13 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 43 out of 118 state House districts in Illinois with an average margin of victory of 15 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 42 out of 118 state House districts in Illinois with an average margin of victory of 22.1 points. Trump won four districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+21, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 21 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Illinois' 15th Congressional District the 29th most Republican nationally.[4]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.10. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.10 points toward that party.[5]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[6] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[7] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Erika Weaver Democratic Party $58,744 $32,134 $-210 As of December 31, 2020
Mary Miller Republican Party $700,257 $581,556 $118,701 As of December 31, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[8]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[9][10][11]

Race ratings: Illinois' 15th Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 15th Congressional District candidates in Illinois in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Illinois, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
Illinois 15th Congressional District Democratic 523 0.5% of qualified party primary voters in the district N/A N/A 12/2/2019 Source
Illinois 15th Congressional District Republican 1,373 0.5% of qualified party primary voters in the district N/A N/A 12/2/2019 Source
Illinois 15th Congressional District Unaffiliated Pending 10% of original requirement (by court order) N/A N/A 7/20/2020 Source

District election history

2018

See also: Illinois' 15th Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Illinois District 15

Incumbent John Shimkus defeated Kevin Gaither in the general election for U.S. House Illinois District 15 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of John Shimkus
John Shimkus (R)
 
70.9
 
181,294
Image of Kevin Gaither
Kevin Gaither (D)
 
29.1
 
74,309
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.0
 
5

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 255,608
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Illinois District 15

Kevin Gaither defeated Carl Spoerer in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Illinois District 15 on March 20, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Kevin Gaither
Kevin Gaither
 
62.1
 
17,300
Image of Carl Spoerer
Carl Spoerer
 
37.9
 
10,573

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 27,873
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Illinois District 15

Incumbent John Shimkus advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Illinois District 15 on March 20, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of John Shimkus
John Shimkus
 
100.0
 
73,825

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 73,825
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2016

See also: Illinois' 15th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent John Shimkus (R) was unopposed in the general election on November 8, 2016. Shimkus defeated Kyle McCarter in the Republican primary on March 15, 2016.[12][13]

U.S. House, Illinois District 15 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Shimkus Incumbent 100% 274,554
Total Votes 274,554
Source: Illinois State Board of Elections


U.S. House, Illinois District 15 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Shimkus Incumbent 60.4% 76,547
Kyle McCarter 39.6% 50,245
Total Votes 126,792
Source: Illinois State Board of Elections

2014

See also: Illinois' 15th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 15th Congressional District of Illinois held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. John Shimkus (R) defeated Eric Thorsland (D) in the general election.

U.S. House, Illinois District 15 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Shimkus Incumbent 74.9% 166,274
     Democratic Eric Thorsland 25.1% 55,652
Total Votes 221,926
Source: Illinois State Board of Elections Official Results

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "Counties by Congressional Districts," accessed June 8, 2016
  2. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  3. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  4. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  5. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  6. ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  7. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  8. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  9. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  10. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  11. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  12. ↑ Illinois State Board of Elections, "Candidate List," accessed November 30, 2015
  13. ↑ The New York Times, "Illinois Primary Results," March 15, 2016


Illinois' current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Tammy Duckworth (D)
Dick Durbin (D)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
Mike Bost (R)
District 13
District 14
District 15
District 16
District 17
Democratic Party (16)
Republican Party (3)


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