Insiders Poll: Who won the sixth Democratic debate?
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Clinton Questions Sanders’ Vision
February 12, 2016
By James A. Barnes
Hillary Clinton shook off her lopsided loss to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in the New Hampshire primary and gave another commanding performance in the Democratic presidential debate in Milwaukee, hosted by PBS. In a survey of more than 100 Democratic and Republican Party political insiders, more than 60 percent of the Democrats said she was the "biggest winner" of the debate.
Among the 76 Democratic Insiders—party strategists, pollsters, media consultants, activists, lobbyists and allied interest group operatives—who responded to the survey, many cited her experience and command of the issues as reasons for her success. Sanders’s strength has been what it always has been in this race: he offers a more compelling and inspirational agenda for the liberal base of the Democratic Party. Last night, Clinton sought to raise doubts about Sanders’ vision.
Clinton spent much of the early stages of the campaign trying to co-opt Sanders’ strength among the liberal wing of the party, as when she came out against the Trans Pacific Partnership trade deal that she had lauded as Secretary of State. But in last night’s debate, she repeatedly questioned the domestic plans Sanders has proposed. “Hillary began highlighting how Sanders lives in the far, far-left of the party,” said one Democratic Insider. Another echoed, “She dismantled the magic kingdom Bernie is selling to voters.” And a third predicted, “Her Johnny-one-note critique will stick, and his foreign policy weakness is glaring.” This survey was conducted anonymously to encourage candor from the Insiders.
Party insiders, who as a group have been drawn to her candidacy, in part because of her extensive knowledge of public policy and her experience in government, praised her for her competence. “The two were pretty even when it came to domestic issues, but Secretary Clinton showed her true colors and expertise in foreign policy,” observed one Democratic Insider. “It set her apart and made her the winner.” Another Democrat observed, “Hillary is so much better informed; Bernie, same old slogans about Wall Street.” A third Democrat said, “She looked by far the most presidential.” One Insider who thought Clinton won the encounter assessed it this way: “Again, this debate came down to rhetoric vs. reality. Senator Sanders has the edge on rhetoric but he can't avoid the brick wall of reality. His numbers don't add up; his foreign policy reads more like a Cold War history lesson than a grasp of today’s challenges.”
Clinton is not known for being inspirational, but last night one Democratic Insider declared, “Secretary Clinton's closing was one of the best I've seen by a presidential candidate. It was a clear, concise statement on why she wants to be president.”
Clinton also repeatedly portrayed Sanders’ expansive proposals as undermining the accomplishments of the President Barack Obama. And towards the end of the debate, Clinton pivoted off a question about presidential leadership and blasted Sanders for raising questions about the president’s. “She was in command of the facts and pointed out the differences between Obama and Sanders,” noted one Insider.
Democrats who thought Sanders prevailed in Milwaukee said that his campaign themes resonate deeper with the base of the party. “Hillary is always good tactically [but] Bernie always controls the ground of these debates,” said one Democratic Insider who thought Sanders won the debate. “Insiders will love HRC tonight, but Bernie was better at talking to the base,” said another. “Like the GOP debates, I suspect observers & activists will see it differently.”
Sanders is an unconventional politician who is becoming a better candidate under the bright lights of the debate stage, “This guy is quick, resilient and Hillary’s negatives are showing,” judged one Democratic Insider. “She held her powder and than became shrill,” asserted another. That was perhaps a reference to Clinton’s attack on Sanders for questioning President Obama’s leadership, an attack that Sanders called a “low blow.”
Among those Democratic Insiders who said that debate was a draw, one said,” Agnostic Bernie is the best southern preacher I've seen. His rhythm and cadence and gestures are entertaining as they are effective.” But another Democratic Insider who thought that Clinton won the debate noted Sanders’ occasional arm-waving gestures and joked, “Bernie may soon say he is absolutely a better composer than Bach.”
Republican Insiders saw the debate a bit differently from their Democratic counterparts. Among the 49 who responded to this survey, a solid plurality thought Sanders had won. “Passion is still on his side,” said one GOP Insider. Another reasoned, “She did not score any damaging hits, so he wins.”
But another GOP Insider wondered, “Does anyone think Bernie out classes Hillary in this format?”
After judging the debate a draw, one Republican influential observed, “Both think the country is broken but somehow also believe the guy in charge for the last seven years is terrific?”
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics. He has conducted elite opinion surveys for National Journal, CNN and the on-line polling firm, YouGov.
See also
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Durham, N.H., MSNBC Democratic debate (February 4, 2016)
- Presidential election, 2016/Polls
- 2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards
- Presidential election, 2016/Straw polls
