Maine's 1st Congressional District election, 2020

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Maine's 1st Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 16, 2020
Primary: July 14, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Chellie Pingree (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in Maine
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Maine's 1st Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd
Maine elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 1st Congressional District of Maine, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Chellie Pingree won election in the general election for U.S. House Maine District 1.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
March 16, 2020
July 14, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Democrat Chellie Pingree, who was first elected in 2008.

Maine's 1st Congressional District encompasses Cumberland, Knox, Lincoln, Sagadahoc and York counties. Additionally, the district includes most of Kennebec County.[1]

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Maine's 1st Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 60.1 62.2
Republican candidate Republican Party 37 37.8
Difference 23.1 24.4

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Maine modified its voter registration procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Voter registration: The voter pre-registration deadline in the general election was extended to October 19, 2020.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

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Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Maine District 1

The ranked-choice voting election was won by Chellie Pingree in round 1 .

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 436,027
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.

Democratic primary election

Democratic Primary for U.S. House Maine District 1

The following candidates advanced in the ranked-choice voting election: Chellie Pingree in round 1 .

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 102,773
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.

Republican primary election

Republican Primary for U.S. House Maine District 1

The following candidates advanced in the ranked-choice voting election: Jay Allen in round 1 .

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 31,124
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Eight of 16 Maine counties—50 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Androscoggin County, Maine 9.38% 12.78% 15.22%
Aroostook County, Maine 17.19% 7.62% 9.58%
Franklin County, Maine 5.47% 18.41% 20.29%
Kennebec County, Maine 3.58% 13.46% 14.78%
Oxford County, Maine 12.94% 14.73% 16.04%
Penobscot County, Maine 10.91% 2.93% 5.12%
Somerset County, Maine 22.67% 1.68% 5.70%
Washington County, Maine 18.44% 1.60% 1.01%

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Maine with 47.8 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 44.9 percent. In 2016, Maine had four electoral votes. Maine's share of electoral votes represented 0.7 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs in the general election and 1.5 percent of the 270 votes needed to be elected president. Maine awards its electoral votes by congressional district and the popular vote. It has two electoral votes for the statewide vote and one for each of its two congressional districts. In presidential elections between 1820 and 2016, Maine voted Republican 67.3 percent of the time and Democratic 32.6 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Maine voted Democratic all five times.[2]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Maine. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[3][4]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 129 out of 151 state House districts in Maine with an average margin of victory of 19.2 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 69 out of 151 state House districts in Maine with an average margin of victory of 23.7 points. Clinton won nine districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 22 out of 151 state House districts in Maine with an average margin of victory of 8.7 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 82 out of 151 state House districts in Maine with an average margin of victory of 16 points. Trump won 17 districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+8, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 8 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made Maine's 1st Congressional District the 137th most Democratic nationally.[5]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.15. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.15 points toward that party.[6]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[7] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[8] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Chellie Pingree Democratic Party $498,961 $276,671 $446,658 As of December 31, 2020
Nancy Farrand Democratic Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Jay Allen Republican Party $79,585 $69,853 $9,731 As of December 31, 2020
Ian Arthur Leavitt Independent $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


Ranked-choice voting

Ranked-choice voting in Maine

Maine uses ranked-choice voting for all federal and state-level (e.g., governor, state senator, and state representative) primary elections. Ranked-choice voting is used in general elections for federal offices only (i.e., U.S. Congress and the presidency).[9]

Click here for information on the history of ranked-choice voting in Maine.

How ranked-choice voting works

Broadly speaking, the ranked-choice voting process unfolds as follows for single-winner elections:

  1. Voters rank the candidates for a given office by preference on their ballots.
  2. If a candidate wins an outright majority of first-preference votes (i.e., 50 percent plus one), he or she will be declared the winner.
  3. If, on the other hand, no candidates win an outright majority of first-preference votes, the candidate with the fewest first-preference votes is eliminated.
  4. All first-preference votes for the failed candidate are eliminated, lifting the second-preference choices indicated on those ballots.
  5. A new tally is conducted to determine whether any candidate has won an outright majority of the adjusted voters.
  6. The process is repeated until a candidate wins a majority of votes cast.

Example

Assume that there are four candidates for mayor in a hypothetical city. The table below presents the raw first-preference vote totals for each candidate.

Raw first-preference vote tallies in a hypothetical mayoral race
Candidate First-preference votes Percentage
Candidate A 475 46.34%
Candidate B 300 29.27%
Candidate C 175 17.07%
Candidate D 75 7.32%

In the above scenario, no candidate won an outright majority of first-preference votes. As a result, the candidate (Candidate D) with the smallest number of first-preference votes is eliminated. The ballots that listed candidate D as the first preference are adjusted, raising their second-preference candidates. Assume that, of the 75 first-preference votes for Candidate D, 50 listed Candidate A as their second preference and 25 listed Candidate B. The adjusted vote totals would be as follows:

Adjusted vote tallies in a hypothetical mayoral race
Candidate Adjusted first-preference votes Percentage
Candidate A 525 51.22%
Candidate B 325 31.71%
Candidate C 175 17.07%

On the second tally, Candidate A secured 51.22 percent of the vote, thereby winning the election.

Note: The above is a simplified example used for illustrative purposes. Specific procedures vary by jurisdiction and according to the nature of the election (i.e., whether it is a single-winner or multi-winner contest).

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[10]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[11][12][13]

Race ratings: Maine's 1st Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

District election history

2018

See also: Maine's 1st Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Maine District 1

Incumbent Chellie Pingree defeated Mark Holbrook and Martin Grohman in the general election for U.S. House Maine District 1 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Chellie Pingree
Chellie Pingree (D)
 
58.8
 
201,195
Image of Mark Holbrook
Mark Holbrook (R)
 
32.5
 
111,188
Image of Martin Grohman
Martin Grohman (Independent)
 
8.7
 
29,670

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 342,053
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Maine District 1

Incumbent Chellie Pingree advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Maine District 1 on June 12, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Chellie Pingree
Chellie Pingree
 
100.0
 
74,376

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 74,376
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Maine District 1

Mark Holbrook advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Maine District 1 on June 12, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Mark Holbrook
Mark Holbrook
 
100.0
 
40,679

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 40,679
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

2016

See also: Maine's 1st Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Democratic. Incumbent Chellie Pingree (D), who faced no primary opposition, defeated Mark Holbrook (R) and James Bouchard (L write-in) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Holbrook defeated Ande Allen Smith by 57 votes in the Republican primary on June 14, 2016.[14][15][16]

U.S. House, Maine District 1 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngChellie Pingree Incumbent 58% 227,546
     Republican Mark Holbrook 41.9% 164,569
     N/A Write-in 0.1% 276
Total Votes 392,391
Source: Maine Secretary of State


U.S. House, Maine District 1 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngMark Holbrook 50.1% 10,360
Ande Allen Smith 49.9% 10,303
Total Votes 20,663
Source: Maine Secretary of State

2014

See also: Maine's 1st Congressional District elections, 2014

The 1st Congressional District of Maine held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Chellie Pingree (D) defeated Isaac Misiuk (R) and Richard Murphy (I) in the general election.

U.S. House, Maine District 1 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngChellie Pingree Incumbent 58% 186,674
     Republican Isaac James Misiuk 29.4% 94,751
     Independent Richard Paul Murphy 8.5% 27,410
     Other Other 0% 63
     Blank None 4.1% 13,089
Total Votes 321,987
Source: Maine Secretary of State Official Results

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "Counties by Congressional Districts," accessed June 8, 2016
  2. ↑ 270towin.com, "Maine," accessed June 1, 2017
  3. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  4. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  5. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  6. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  7. ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  8. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  9. ↑ Maine.gov, "Ranked-choice Voting (RCV)," accessed February 24, 2022
  10. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  11. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  12. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  13. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  14. ↑ Maine Secretary of State, "List of Candidates who have filed for the June 14, 2016 Primary Election," March 15, 2016
  15. ↑ The New York Times, "Maine Primary Results," June 14, 2016
  16. ↑ CNN "Election Results," accessed November 8, 2016


Maine's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Susan Collins (R)
Angus King (I)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
Democratic Party (2)
Republican Party (1)
Independent (1)


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