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Miami CNN Republican Debate (March 10, 2016)
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This article focuses exclusively on the Twelfth Republican debate hosted by CNN, The Washington Times and Salem Media Group on March 10, 2016. Click here to access Ballotpedia's full 2015-2016 presidential debate coverage. A schedule for Republican primary debates can be found below.
The Twelfth Republican debate in Miami was the final debate before the March 15 primaries and caucuses, which featured the winner-take-all states of Florida and Ohio. As of March 10, Donald Trump had 461 delegates of 1,237 needed to secure the nomination, according to CNN. Ted Cruz had 360. Marco Rubio had 154, and John Kasich had 54. The March 10 debate was also the first debate since the March 8 primary elections and caucuses, which included the states of Michigan, Mississippi, Hawaii and Idaho. Trump won three states, while Cruz won one. Democrats held a debate in Miami on March 9, 2016.
Ballotpedia's coverage of the twelfth Republican debate includes an overview of the event's basic information, the results of our Insiders Poll, statistics and post-debate commentary written by guest writers and members of our senior writing staff. The twelfth Republican presidential primary debate will consist of only one main event contest.[1] More information on participants and rules for inclusion can be found in the "Basic Information" tab below.
Basic Information
Date: March 10, 2016
Time: 8:30 EST
Location: Miami, Florida
Venue: University of Miami BankUnited Center
Sponsors: CNN, The Washington Times and Salem Media Group
Moderators: Jake Tapper, Dana Bash, Hugh Hewitt and Stephen Dinan[2]
Participants
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Statistics
This article analyzes the central themes of the twelfth Republican presidential debate held on March 10, 2016, in Miami, Florida. The transcript prepared by The Washington Post was used to measure candidate participation and audience engagement.[3] Footage from the debate was consulted where there were ambiguities in the text.
To compare the statistics of this debate to those of the previous Republican debate, see the analysis of the FNC debate held on March 3, 2016.
Segments
Including opening and closing statements, this debate featured 20 unique discussion segments covering immigration, the economy, education, foreign affairs and the Republican Party These discussion segments were measured by any shift in the theme of a discussion prompted by one of the moderators: Jake Tapper, Dana Bash, Hugh Hewitt and Stephen Dinan.
- Opening statements
- Trade agreements
- H-1B visa program and foreign workers
- Common Core
- Sustainability of Social Security
- Republican Party and tariffs
- Islam and the United States
- Ethics of targeting terrorists' families
- Israeli-Palestinian conflict
- Ground strategy in Syria and Iraq
- Department of Veterans Affairs and benefits for veterans
- U.S.-Cuba relations
- Climate change
- Perception of the United States abroad
- Authoritarian governments
- Violence at Donald Trump's rallies
- Pathway to Republican nomination and the Republican National Convention
- Donald Trump's self-funded campaign
- Political flexibility
- Closing statements
Approximately one-third of the discussion segments related to foreign affairs and national security. One-fourth of the discussion segments related to Trump's campaign and Republican Party politics.
Participants
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Overall participation
Participation in a discussion segment was defined as a substantive comment related to the discussion segment's topic. Jokes and attempts to gain permission from a moderator to speak were not considered participatory speech acts. In some instances, candidates who participated in a discussion segment diverted from the prompted topic.
Candidate participation by behavior
Participation in the debate was also measured by the candidate's behavior at the start of each discussion segment. This study considered whether a candidate was initially prompted by a moderator to speak during a discussion segment or whether he or she independently engaged in the discussion segment by interrupting another candidate or calling on the moderator for permission to speak. A candidate's conduct after they joined a discussion segment was not considered.
For the first time in a Republican debate, none of the candidates interjected himself into a discussion segment. Trump commented on this courtesy, saying, "We're all in this together. We're going to come up with solutions. We're going to find the answers to things. And so far I cannot believe how civil it's been up here."[3]
Candidate participation by speaking order
This study also calculated the number of times a candidate spoke first, second, third, or fourth during a discussion segment, whether prompted by a moderator with a question or invitation to rebut or by interjection.
Trump was called on to speak first or second more frequently than any other candidate.
Candidate participation by speaking time
According to speaking time estimates from NPR, Trump spoke the longest, registering 27.4 minutes on the clock. Kasich spoke for the least amount of time at 18.8 minutes.[4]
Candidate participation by speaking rate
Each candidate's speaking rate was calculated by dividing the total word count of the candidate's speech during the debate with his speaking time as measured by NPR. As in previous debates, Rubio spoke quicker than his peers at 231 words per minute.
Audience engagement
Audience engagement was measured by noting applause, cheering or laughter in The Washington Post's transcript. Footage from the debate was consulted when the text was ambiguous about to whom the audience was responding.
Trump and Rubio tied for the most the most positive engagement from the live audience with 30 instances each.
The discussion segments on the sustainability of Social Security and the pathway to the Republican nomination produced the most live audience engagement overall.
Candidate analysis
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Ballotpedia's Insiders Poll
Rubio returns to form, but will it matter?
March 11, 2016
By James A. Barnes
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio retuned to his winning form of earlier Republican presidential debates—thoughtful, optimistic and occasionally eloquent. The Floridian’s performance, indeed the entire tone of the March 10 GOP faceoff hosted by CNN at the University of Miami, was a marked departure from the last two GOP encounters which were more akin to political food fights than a forum for serious White House candidates.
In a survey of more than 90 Republican and Democratic political insiders—party strategists, pollsters, media consultants, activists, lobbyists and allied interest group operatives—a solid plurality of the 64 Republicans who responded to the survey, said Rubio was the “biggest winner” of the debate. Another 27 percent said that billionaire developer and GOP frontrunner Donald Trump carried the night.
“He sounded and looked like a potential President tonight, first time in a month,” declared one GOP Insiders who thought Rubio was the debate’s biggest winner. “Rubio hit the substance better than he ever has done,” said another Republican influential. “Plus, he avoided this previous third grade insult party he started last debate.” And a third added, “Rubio was far more substantive that anyone else on stage. [Texas Sen. Ted] Cruz had some similar strong answers and they weren’t too different on policy, but Rubio had more depth and knowledge in his answers, as well as more spirit and energy in his delivery.”
Indeed, this was the old Rubio, whom Republican Insiders have awarded the blue ribbon to in most of the previous GOP debates. The question GOP Insiders pondered was whether Rubio can reestablish his image as the next-generation-optimistic-thoughtful White House contender in time for the Florida primary that is less than a week away. Rubio admitted at an MSNBC-hosed town hall on Wednesday that he regretted trying to trade insults with Trump on the campaign stump recently. Now he must win his home state’s primary on March 15, where he trails in the polls, in order to rebuild momentum for his candidacy.
“The real question is whether this polished performance was ‘too little, too late,’” said one Republican Insider. “The voters of Florida will determine that on Tuesday.”
Some Republicans were skeptical that Rubio’s efforts will matter. “Another compelling adult performance [by Rubio] and it won’t make a dime’s worth of difference,” opined one GOP Insider. “Country is receiving on a different frequency.” Another echoed that it was “not even close,” that Rubio had won the debate, but added that his performance was “not even remotely a factor for next Tuesday.” This survey was conducted anonymously to encourage candor from the Insiders.
And in another break with form, Trump acted like a frontrunner for the first time in the primary debate season. For once, he did not respond with insults and attacks when his rivals occasionally prodded him. He largely stayed above the fray, and deflected criticism, just like a veteran candidate who was leading a race would. “Trump won because he took the slow approach, running out the clock,” observed one GOP Insider, who judged Trump as the debate’s biggest winner. Added another, “Debate did little to change status quo, which increasingly favors Trump.”
Trump was also seen as the debate’s winner because the others on the stage weren’t at the top of their game. “Kasich disappeared, Rubio [was] fine but irrelevant, Cruz resigned to having a bad night at the wrong time, Trump prevailed,” argued one Republican Insider. “Rubio was the best, but too little, too late, so Trump is real winner,” said another.
Indeed, with so much on the line in the five-state primary bonanza on March 15, and Trump’s momentum unchecked after winning three-out-of-four primary and caucus contests on March 8, some Insiders thought all of his opponents lacked a sense urgency. “What the hell?” asked one GOP Insider, “Is everybody running for the Cabinet?” Another simply described the debate as a “snooze-fest.”
Others disagreed with that characterization. And some thought Cruz had a good night, laying the groundwork for when he hopes to get into a one-on-one fight with Trump for the GOP nomination. “All four were pretty good but Cruz scored points that may matter when Rubio is out,” noted one Republican. Another said of the Texan, “He is shifting from polarizing rhetoric to that which can appeal to mainstream Republicans. Prosecuted the case against Trump effectively. I’m not a fan, but he did well.”
Also seen playing for time, was Ohio Gov. John Kasich. “He needed to prove he wasn’t the next person off the island after Marco,” said a Republican Insider who thought Kasich won the debate. “And tonight he bought himself a bit more time.”
Democratic Insiders saw the debate a bit differently from their Democratic counterparts. Among the 33 who responded to this survey, a solid plurality, 45 percent, thought Trump carried the evening. But many of their observations were the similar to those of their GOP counterparts.
Trump “once again dictated the tone of the debate,” said one Democrat. “He decided it would be more positive and it was. Someone needed to go hard after Trump and none of them did.” Seconded another, “Trump wins because it was totally uneventful.” And a third simply said, “Trump went in with the lead, and came out with lead.” And a fourth opined, “Donald Trump is like Goldilocks; the other three candidates just can’t find the balance, either too hot or too cold.”
The prospect of a Trump nomination has many Democrats salivating, but not all. “This man could be president—a terrifying thought,” said one influential Democrat. “His answers still lack any substance, but he played the part tonight acting out his vision of ‘presidential,’” said another. “God help us all.”
Another 30 percent of the Democratic Insiders thought Rubio was the debate’s biggest winner. “Good substance, forward-thinking, felt more confident,” assessed on Democrat. “Clearly more comfortable on his own turf with good quips. Not that it will matter much.” Another noted, “He is a desperate candidate but contained himself and got in some good arguments.”
One Democratic Insider joked, “Did ‘The Don’ play too much golf prior to the debate? He had no energy.” And a Republican mused about the sedate debate, “The mere fact Trump had to mention people were being civil in the first 30 minutes should have told you this wasn’t going to be a nail biter.”
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics. He has conducted elite opinion surveys for National Journal, CNN and the on-line polling firm, YouGov. This Insiders survey was conducted March 10-11.
Debate Commentary
The columns below were authored by guest columnists and members of Ballotpedia's senior writing staff. The opinions and views belong to the authors.
Republican and Democratic contenders flip scripts
March 11, 2016
By Karlyn Bowman
Karlyn Bowman, a widely respected analyst of public opinion, is a senior fellow and research coordinator at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank in Washington, D.C.
A poll from Pat Caddell & Associates released this week found that 83 percent of Americans agree that there are different rules for the well-connected and people with money. That sentiment is not new, of course. A Gallup question twenty years ago put the number of people saying the government was run by a few big interests looking out for themselves at 74 percent.
But it is much more salient politically this year because many Americans are still feeling the after effects of the 2008 financial crash and the recession. Many have lost ground while people on Wall Street seem to be doing just fine. Donald Trump understands this and talks openly about how he, as a businessman, has used the system to his advantage.
It is one of a number of themes he has used in the debates to propel his candidacy forward and it has been effective. It was so again last night. Rubio was eloquent at times. It is now clear how misguided his attempt was to descend to Trump’s level of vulgarity in the last debate, and it seems to have permanently damaged him. He could have taken him on seriously, but not with schoolyard taunts.
Kasich always looks like the odd-man out on the stage, but his interventions are substantive. He’s a popular governor and should do well in Ohio. Today, the race seems to be a two-man contest now between Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, although I suppose we could be surprised in Florida and Ohio given some of the pre-primary polls’ erratic performance thus far.
I confess, I was dreading having to watch another GOP food fight Thursday evening. But the Republicans sounded a little more like grown-ups last night. Even Trump said, "I cannot believe how civil it’s been up here."
The Democratic debate the night before was more acrimonious and sour. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders will go on, and he has pulled Clinton to the left on many issues. His attacks were more acerbic than in the past. The Democratic Party has moved to the left over the course of the Obama presidency. Whether Clinton, whom most people expect to be the nominee, can move back to the center where the swing votes are in a general election, remains to be seen.
Republican Debate Schedule
Click the schedule to return back to the top of the page.
See also
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential election, 2016/Polls
- 2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards
- Presidential election, 2016/Straw polls
Footnotes
- ↑ The Washington Post, "CNN partnering with the Washington Times for March 10 debate in Miami," January 20, 2016
- ↑ Politico, "Everything you need to know about the Republican presidential debate," March 8, 2016
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 The Washington Post, "The CNN Miami Republican debate transcript, annotated," March 10, 2016
- ↑ NPR, "On The Clock: Trump Talks The Most, But Not As Much As Past Debates" March 10, 2016
