Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District election, 2020 (March 10 Republican primary)

Elections in Mississippi, 2020

• Primary date: March 10
• Primary type: Open
• Registration deadline(s): Feb. 8
• Online registration: No
• Same-day registration: No

• Early voting starts: N/A
• Absentee/mail voting deadline(s): March 9 (received)
• Voter ID: Photo ID
• Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.

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Date of Mississippi presidential primary: March 10

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On the ballot: U.S. Senate • U.S. House • Special state legislative • Supreme court • Local judges • State ballot measures • School boards • 

2022 → ← 2018
Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District
Democratic primary Republican primary General election
Election details
Filing deadline: January 10, 2020
Primary: March 10, 2020 Primary runoff: June 23, 2020 General: November 3, 2020 Pre-election incumbent: Michael Guest (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Voting in Mississippi
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican Inside Elections: Solid Republican Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th Mississippi elections, 2020 U.S. Congress elections, 2020 U.S. Senate elections, 2020 U.S. House elections, 2020 Alabama U.S. House racesAlaska U.S. House racesArizona U.S. House racesArkansas U.S. House racesCalifornia U.S. House racesColorado U.S. House racesConnecticut U.S. House racesDelaware U.S. House racesFlorida U.S. House racesGeorgia U.S. House racesHawaii U.S. House racesIdaho U.S. House racesIllinois U.S. House racesIndiana U.S. House racesIowa U.S. House racesKansas U.S. House racesKentucky U.S. House racesLouisiana U.S. House racesMaine U.S. House racesMaryland U.S. House racesMassachusetts U.S. House racesMichigan U.S. House racesMinnesota U.S. House racesMississippi U.S. House racesMissouri U.S. House racesMontana U.S. House racesNebraska U.S. House racesNevada U.S. House racesNew Hampshire U.S. House racesNew Jersey U.S. House racesNew Mexico U.S. House racesNew York U.S. House racesNorth Carolina U.S. House racesNorth Dakota U.S. House racesOhio U.S. House racesOklahoma U.S. House racesOregon U.S. House racesPennsylvania U.S. House racesRhode Island U.S. House racesSouth Carolina U.S. House racesSouth Dakota U.S. House racesTennessee U.S. House racesTexas U.S. House racesUtah U.S. House racesVermont U.S. House racesVirginia U.S. House racesWashington U.S. House racesWest Virginia U.S. House racesWisconsin U.S. House racesWyoming U.S. House racesSubmit

Incumbent Michael Guest won Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District Republican primary on March 10, 2020. With 18% of precincts reporting, Guest received 90% of the vote to James Tulp's 10%.

Guest was elected in 2018 with 62% of the vote. Tulp was a local radio talk show host as of the election.

Guest campaigned on his record during his first term in Congress, which he said included "supporting free market economic policies of lower taxes and fewer regulations, and promoting our Constitutional freedoms and liberties including the right to life and our 2nd Amendment rights." He said he was the first freshman Republican representative to write legislation passed by the House. President Donald Trump (R) endorsed Guest.

Tulp said he intended "to make Mississippi proud with a strong populist stance" and that Guest "maintains GovTrack’s seventh most liberal ideology record amongst Republicans and one of the worst overall leadership marks." Tulp emphasized his support for building a wall and reducing immigration.

The general election was rated Safe or Solid Republican as of the primary. All 435 House seats were up for election in 2020. As of March 2020, Democrats had a 232-197 advantage over Republicans in the chamber. Click here to learn more about what's at stake in the general election.

Click on candidate names below to view their key messages:

Guest					Tulp

This page focuses on Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District Republican primary. For more in-depth information on the district's Democratic primary and the general election, see the following pages:

• Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District election, 2020 (March 10 Democratic primary)
• Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District election, 2020

This election was a battleground race. Other 2020 battlegrounds included:

Delaware State Senate elections, 2020 Texas' 24th Congressional District election, 2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona, 2020 (August 4 Republican primary)

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Mississippi modified its primary election process as follows:

• Election postponements: The Republican primary runoff election for the state's 2nd Congressional District was postponed from March 31 to June 23.
• Political party events: The Republican Party of Mississippi postponed its state convention, originally scheduled for May 15-16, indefinitely.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

Candidates and election results

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Mississippi District 3

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Michael Guest	89.8	67,269
		James Tulp	10.2	7,618

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	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 74,887
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Candidate profiles

This section includes candidate profiles created in one of two ways. Either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey or Ballotpedia staff created a profile after identifying the candidate as noteworthy. Ballotpedia staff compiled profiles based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements.

Michael Guest

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: Yes

Political Office: 

U.S. House (Assumed office: 2019); District Attorney, Madison and Rankin Counties (2008-2019)

Biography:  Guest received his bachelor's degree from Mississippi State University and a J.D. from the University of Mississippi. He served as an assistant district attorney for Madison and Rankin counties before being elected district attorney. As of the 2020 election, Guest served on the House Committee on Homeland Security, House Foreign Affairs Committee, and House Committee on Ethics.

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Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.

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Guest said he had a record of "supporting free market economic policies of lower taxes and fewer regulations, and promoting our Constitutional freedoms and liberties including the right to life and our 2nd Amendment rights." He said he had also supported the agricultural community, border security, and law enforcement officers.

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Guest said he "was the first Republican freshman member of Congress to write legislation that was passed by the entire U.S. House of Representatives, and the second Republican freshman to author a bill that was signed into law." 

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Guest emphasized that he was the only first-term Republican on the House Committee on Ethics and that House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R) appointed him.

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Show sources

Sources: Michael Guest's 2020 campaign website, "Congressman Guest files qualifying papers with MS GOP to launch reelection campaign," accessed March 2, 2020; Michael Guest's 2020 campaign website, "About Michael," accessed March 1, 2020

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Mississippi District 3 in 2020.

James Tulp

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Submitted Biography:  "James Tulp is a talk radio host, college professor, and candidate for Congress. James is married to his wife, Kelsey, and they have a daughter, Clara, born in June 2019. They are members of First Ridgeland Baptist Church in Ridgeland, Mississippi. Born in New Jersey, James' passion and love for Mississippi is unmatched. He left a successful film industry career in Atlanta to come to what he calls "the greatest place on earth". He is determined to make sure Mississippi has strong conservative representation in Washington DC and that Mississippi's traditional conservative values are never sold out to the authoritarian left. "

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Key Messages

To read this candidate's full survey responses, click here.

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We must put American citizens first- every action taken by the federal government should be for the betterment of citizens, not foreigners or politically connected special interest groups.

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We must reduce legal immigration and secure the border by building the wall to protect American citizens and our national sovereignty.

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As the most conservative state, Mississippi must lead the conservative movement nationally. We need someone representing us who chose Mississippi because of his love for the state, not someone who was brought here against their will by their parents.

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Mississippi District 3 in 2020.

Endorsements

This section lists endorsements issued in this election. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please email us.

Republican primary endorsements
Endorsement	Guest	Tulp
Elected officials
President Donald Trump (R)	✔
Organizations
Mississippi Manufacturers Association	✔
National Rifle Association Political Victory Fund	✔

Campaign themes

See also: Campaign themes

Michael Guest

Guest’s campaign website stated the following:

“	Congressman Guest was first elected to Congress in 2018, making a commitment to the people of Mississippi that he would fight for conservatives values and support free market economic policies of lower taxes, fewer regulations and promoting our Constitutional freedoms and liberties—including the right to life of the unborn and our 2nd Amendment rights. In Congress, he has also worked to strengthen our agricultural community, fought for stronger border security to stop illegal immigration and drugs, and promoted efforts to secure our nation from terrorist threats. Additionally, Congressman Guest is a strong supporter of our men and women in uniform serving in the Armed Forces, and he is a longtime advocate for our law enforcement officers who do the important work of public safety in our local communities. Congressman Guest has been active in many legislative efforts during his first term. He was the first Republican freshman member of Congress to write legislation that was passed by the entire U.S. House of Representatives, and the second Republican freshman to author a bill that was signed into law. This legislation, H.R. 1590, titled “The Terrorist and Foreign Fighter Travel Exercise Act,” was authored by Congressman Guest and signed into law by President Donald Trump on October 9, 2019. This legislation promotes the identification and determent of terrorist travel and enhances the United States government’s ability to respond to terrorism by instructing the Secretary of Homeland Security to develop and conduct a preparedness exercise related to the detection and prevention of terrorist and foreign fighter travel.	”
—Michael Guest’s campaign website (2020)

James Tulp

Tulp’s campaign website stated the following:

“	America First Every action taken by the federal government should be in the interest of American citizens- not foreigners or wealthy special interests. This means fighting for lower taxes for the American people, fair trade deals, fewer regulations on small businesses, and less immigration. Strong Second Amendment Supporter "Shall not be infringed" is self-explanatory. James will strongly oppose Red Flag Laws, support Right to Carry laws, and fight for our constitutional right to keep and bear arms. James Tulp is a proud member of the NRA. America First Immigration Zero tolerance for illegal aliens and the companies that hire them. Cancel all federal funding to sanctuary cities. Eliminate the Diversity Visa Lottery and Chain Migration. Drastically reduce legal immigration until our system is entirely merit based and designed to benefit US citizens first and foremost. Protect Our Borders A nation without borders is not a nation. We cannot fully secure our southern border without building the wall. This is non-negotiable. America First Trade Mississippi's small towns have been devastated by globalist trade deals like NAFTA and WTO. As President Trump once said, "We will no longer surrender this country or its people to the false song of globalism." James will fight for fair trade deals that benefit Mississippi workers by bringing back high-paying manufacturing jobs. Stand Up To China We must recognize that China is the single greatest geopolitical threat to the United States. We must reduce the trade deficit with China, stop them from stealing our intellectual property and waging economic warfare against us. Make English the National Language The United States is one of only eight nations without an official language. 81% of Americans agree that English should be the official language of the United States. There is nothing more unifying than language. We must declare English our national language to foster national cohesion and identity. Protect Our Unborn 95% of biologists agree that life begins at conception. We will repeal Roe v. Wade, defund Planned Parenthood, encourage marriage, make adoption easier and more affordable, and support the family unit. Break Up Big Tech Globalist corporations like Google and Facebook are monopolies. Google in particular is a left-wing ideological tyrant that controls the flow of information 90% of the time. Big Tech routinely suppresses conservative speech. This is a serious threat to the legitimacy of our Republic and our national sovereignty. It must be stopped. Support Our Law Enforcement Our brave law enforcement officers are under attack by the radical left. We must stand with the men and women who put their lives on the line to protect, serve, and maintain order in our communities. Support Our Veterans Our veterans provide the blanket of freedom and security we all enjoy. How we have been treating them is unacceptable. We must enact free market reforms to the VA to give our vets the best possible healthcare. Healthcare Look for market based solutions to a largely government created problem. We must make sure all American citizens have access to the best possible healthcare in the world. Cut Spending and Balance the Budget Support free market reforms to make government smaller. Reform welfare entitlements to incentivize work. We must stop the inter-generational theft of government borrowing and spending.	”
—James Tulp’s campaign website (2020)

Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls

If you are aware of polls conducted in this race, please email us.

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election. It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees. The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name	Party	Receipts*	Disbursements**	Cash on hand	Date
Michael Guest	Republican Party	$802,896	$554,150	$282,068	As of December 31, 2020
James Tulp	Republican Party	$25,455	$25,224	$231	As of March 31, 2020
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). * According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." ** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.

Satellite spending

See also: Satellite spending

Satellite spending, commonly referred to as outside spending, describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.

This section lists satellite spending in this race reported by news outlets in alphabetical order. If you are aware of spending that should be included, please email us.

Primaries in Mississippi

A primary election is an election in which registered voters select a candidate that they believe should be a political party's candidate for elected office to run in the general election.

In Mississippi, primaries are open, meaning any registered voter may vote in the primary of their choice. State law says: "No person shall vote or attempt to vote in the primary election of one (1) party when he or she has voted on the same date in the primary election of another party."

For information about which offices are nominated via primary election, see this article.

What's at stake in the general election?

U.S. House elections were held on November 3, 2020, and coincided with the 2020 presidential election. All 435 House districts were up for election, and the results determined control of the U.S. House in the 117th Congress.

At the time of the election, Democrats had a 232-197 advantage over Republicans. There was one Libertarian member, and there were five vacancies. Republicans needed to gain a net 21 seats to win control of the House. Democrats needed to gain seats or lose fewer than 14 net seats to keep their majority.

In the 2018 midterm election, Democrats had a net gain of 40 seats, winning a 235-200 majority in the House. Heading into the 2018 election, Republicans had a 235-193 majority with seven vacancies.

In the 25 previous House elections that coincided with a presidential election, the president's party had gained House seats in 16 elections and lost seats in nine. In years where the president's party won districts, the average gain was 18. In years where the president's party lost districts, the average loss was 27. Click here for more information on presidential partisanship and down-ballot outcomes.

General election race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

• Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
• Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
• Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.
• Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.

Race ratings: Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District election, 2020
Race tracker	Race ratings
	November 3, 2020	October 27, 2020	October 20, 2020	October 13, 2020
The Cook Political Report	Solid Republican	Solid Republican	Solid Republican	Solid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales	Solid Republican	Solid Republican	Solid Republican	Solid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe Republican	Safe Republican	Safe Republican	Safe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+13, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 13 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District the 101st most Republican nationally.

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.80. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.80 points toward that party.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Two of 82 Mississippi counties—2.4 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County	Trump margin of victory in 2016	Obama margin of victory in 2012	Obama margin of victory in 2008
Chickasaw County, Mississippi	6.06%	4.52%	2.13%
Panola County, Mississippi	0.12%	8.62%	6.52%

District election history

2018

See also: Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Mississippi District 3

Michael Guest defeated Michael Evans and Matthew Holland in the general election for U.S. House Mississippi District 3 on November 6, 2018.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Michael Guest (R)	62.3	160,284
		Michael Evans (D)	36.7	94,461
	Submit photo	Matthew Holland (Reform Party)	1.0	2,526

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	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 257,271
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Republican primary runoff election

Republican primary runoff for U.S. House Mississippi District 3

Michael Guest defeated Whit Hughes in the Republican primary runoff for U.S. House Mississippi District 3 on June 26, 2018.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Michael Guest	65.1	31,572
		Whit Hughes	34.9	16,950

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	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.	Total votes: 48,522
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Mississippi District 3

Michael Evans defeated Michael Aycox in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Mississippi District 3 on June 5, 2018.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Michael Evans	69.3	17,016
		Michael Aycox	30.7	7,525

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	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.	Total votes: 24,541
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

• Omeria Scott (D)

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Mississippi District 3

The following candidates ran in the Republican primary for U.S. House Mississippi District 3 on June 5, 2018.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Michael Guest	44.8	29,157
✔		Whit Hughes	22.2	14,464
		Perry Parker	16.2	10,562
		Sally Doty	10.2	6,608
	Submit photo	Morgan Dunn	5.9	3,820
	Submit photo	Katherine Tate	0.6	416

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	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.	Total votes: 65,027
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2016

See also: Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Gregg Harper (R) defeated Dennis Quinn (D), Roger Gerrard (Veterans Party of America), and Lajena Sheets (Reform) in the general election. Harper defeated Jimmy Giles in the Republican primary on March 8, 2016. Quinn defeated Nathan Stewart in the Democratic primary on March 8, 2016. Both Gerrard and Sheets were unopposed.

U.S. House, Mississippi District 3 General Election, 2016

Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Republican	Gregg Harper Incumbent	66.2%	209,490
	Democratic	Dennis Quinn	30.4%	96,101
	Veterans Party of America	Roger Gerrard	2.7%	8,696
	Reform	Lajena Sheets	0.7%	2,158
Total Votes				316,445
Source: Mississippi Secretary of State

U.S. House, Mississippi District 3 Democratic Primary, 2016

Candidate	Vote %	Votes
Dennis Quinn	65.5%	29,149
Nathan Stewart	34.5%	15,384
Total Votes		44,533
Source: Mississippi Secretary of State

U.S. House, Mississippi District 3 Republican Primary, 2016

Candidate	Vote %	Votes
Gregg Harper Incumbent	89.1%	87,997
Jimmy Giles	10.9%	10,760
Total Votes		98,757
Source: Mississippi Republican Party

2014

See also: Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District elections, 2014

The 3rd Congressional District of Mississippi held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Gregg Harper (R) defeated Doug Magee (D), Roger Gerrard (I) and Barbara Dale Washer (RP) in the general election.

U.S. House, Mississippi District 3 General Election, 2014

Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Republican	Gregg Harper Incumbent	68.9%	117,771
	Democratic	Doug Magee	27.9%	47,744
	Reform	Barbara Washer	0.9%	1,541
	Independent	Roger Gerrard	2.3%	3,890
Total Votes				170,946
Source: Mississippi Secretary of State Official Results

See also

• Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District election, 2020 (March 10 Democratic primary)
• Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District election, 2020
• United States House elections in Mississippi, 2020 (March 10 Democratic primaries)
• United States House elections in Mississippi, 2020 (March 10 Republican primaries)
• United States House Democratic Party primaries, 2020
• United States House Republican Party primaries, 2020
• United States House of Representatives elections, 2020
• U.S. House battlegrounds, 2020

External links

Suggest a link

• Search Google News for this topic

Footnotes

[show]

Mississippi's current delegation to the United States Congress

Senators

Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)

Roger Wicker (R)

Representatives

District 1

Trent Kelly (R)

District 2

Bennie Thompson (D)

District 3

Michael Guest (R)

District 4

Mike Ezell (R)

Republican Party (5)

Democratic Party (1)

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