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The State and Local Tap: Florida Gov is up for debate

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October 26, 2018Issue No. 136

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Week in review
On tap next week

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

Here's what happened in state and local politics last week. To see what happened in federal politics, click here.

State Politics: The Week in Review

Ballot Measures Update

2018:

  • The last pending statewide measures have been certified; voters in 37 states will decide 155 statewide ballot measures in November. A total of 167 statewide ballot measures were certified for 2018 ballots in 38, but 12 were decided at pre-November elections. Of the 155 measures on the ballot in November, 64 are citizen-initiated measures.
    • There were 158 measures certified for the 2014 ballot. In 2016, 162 measures were ultimately on the ballot.
    • Notable trends for 2018 include redistricting and election policy, marijuana, Medicaid expansion and healthcare, Marsy’s Law, energy, restrictions on taxes, abortion, and minimum wage.

Initiative Signature Petition Costs report

  • Ballotpedia’s initiative signature petition cost report shows what it took to get the citizen-initiated measures onto the ballot by looking at total petition cost and the cost per required signature (CPRS) for each successful initiative petition. The total cost depends on all of the factors that can make a petition effort more or less expensive, including the population of the state and the state's signature requirements.The CPRS removes state population and signature requirement variables to focus on others, such as state regulations, the topics of the initiatives, and the petition company market in the state.
    • A total of between $74.4 million and $78.8 million was spent on the signature petitions for the 68 citizen-initiated measures that were on the ballot in 2018.
      • A combined total of 11,110,180 valid signatures were required to qualify the measures for the ballots across the 21 states with citizen-initiated measures.
    • The average total cost for qualifying an initiative or veto referendum for the ballot in 2018 was between $1.1 million and $1.2 million.
    • The average cost per required signature (CPRS) across all the initiatives that were on the ballot in 2018 was between $6.19 and $6.85.
    • In 2016, the average total cost was $1.03 million, and the average CPRS was $5.6.
      • From 2010 through 2016, the average total cost per initiative in even-numbered years was $801,836, and the average CPRS was $4.2. Citizen-initiated measures were on the ballot in between 14 and 17 states from 2010 through 2016.
    • The states with the highest average total cost for initiative petitions were Florida, Ohio, and California.
    • The states with the lowest average total cost for initiative petitions were Oklahoma, Maine, and South Dakota.
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Top ballot measure campaign contributions

So far, at least $901.6 million has been contributed to support and opposition campaigns for 2018 statewide ballot measures, with the largest amounts in California, Nevada, and Florida.

    • Support campaigns had raised about 53 percent of the campaign funds as of October 26, 2018.
    • The 68 citizen-initiated measures had featured about 88.6 percent of the campaign finance activity.

According to reports available as of October 26, 2018, the following 15 states featured the most in ballot measure campaign contributions:

  1. California - $342,521,967.45 in contributions
  2. Nevada - $121,396,953.24 in contributions
  3. Florida - $91,156,324.81 in contributions
  4. Washington - $56,902,817.03 in contributions
  5. Arizona - $52,721,571.19 in contributions
  6. Missouri - $40,853,172.08 in contributions
  7. Massachusetts - $35,302,436.53 in contributions
  8. Colorado - $31,787,076.92 in contributions
  9. Montana - $20,855,344.74 in contributions
  10. Oregon - $17,627,462.53 in contributions
  11. Oregon - $17,293,304.70 in contributions
  12. Alaska - $13,003,779.70 in contributions
  13. Arkansas - $11,976,116.02 in contributions
  14. Georgia - $8,487,584.00 in contributions
  15. Utah - $7,894,385.72 in contributions

Saturday, October 20

Araujo doubles Cegavske’s Q3 fundraising in NV secretary of state race

  • In the election for secretary of state of Nevada, state Assemblyman Nelson Araujo (D) outraised incumbent Barbara Cegavske (R) in the third quarter of 2018, $321,000 to $157,000.
  • Election security and voter fraud have become key issues in the race. Cegavske advocated strengthening voter ID laws, saying that showing ID is necessary for banking and travel transactions. Araujo said he was more interested in expanding opportunities for voter participation.
  • Cegavske and Araujo were tied at 40 percent in a Gravis Marketing poll conducted last month. Governing rated the seat a toss-up, saying, “This race will tilt depending on the strength of a possible blue wave.”
  • Nevada is currently a Republican triplex with Republicans holding the offices of governor, attorney general, and secretary of state.

Monday, October 22

Vermont Gov. Scott leads field at 42 percent polled, while 22 percent remain unsure

  • A new poll published in the Vermont gubernatorial race showed the Republican incumbent, Phil Scott, with 42 percent support compared to 28 percent support for his Democratic opponent, Christine Hallquist. No other candidate in the race received more than 1 percent support, although 22 percent of the poll’s respondents said that they had no opinion or were not yet sure who they would support. The poll, which was conducted by Braun Research and sponsored by Vermont Public Radio and Vermont PBS, had a 4.4 percentage point margin of error and ran from October 5 through October 14.
    • As of October 23, The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball had all rated the gubernatorial race as either Safe or Solid Republican. Scott was first elected to a two-year term in 2016. He succeeded Peter Shumlin, a Democrat who was elected in 2010 and re-elected in 2012 and 2014.

The first public polling on Colorado Proposition 112 shows a close race

  • The University of Colorado’s American Politics Research Lab released the results of an online poll on Proposition 112 showing 52 percent support and 48 percent opposition, with an estimated margin of error of +/- 3.5 points.
  • Proposition 112 would mandate that new oil and gas development projects, including fracking, be a minimum distance of 2,500 feet from occupied buildings and other areas designated as vulnerable, including playgrounds, sports fields, public open space, and bodies of water.
  • The support campaign had raised $1.3 million as of October 26, 2018. The opposition campaign had raised $19.2 million.
  • To see the polling on other Colorado measures and other 2018 measures, click here.

Tuesday, October 23

Georgia governor calls for special session in November

  • Gov. Nathan Deal (R) called for a special session beginning November 13 to discuss costs associated with Hurricane Michael. The governor's chief of staff, Chris Riley, estimated state funding for recovery could amount to $100 million. Hurricane Michael reached Georgia October 10. According to CNN, it was the first Category 3 hurricane to reach the state since 1898.

Wednesday, October 24

Gillum (D) and DeSantis (R) meet in final debate for FL gov

  • Watch the Gillum vs. DeSantis debate here.
  • Florida gubernatorial candidates Andrew Gillum (D) and Ron DeSantis (R) met in their final debate at Broward College in Fort Lauderdale. Most public polls have shown the race tied or a small lead for Gillum. Lawton Chiles was the last Democrat to win Florida’s governorship in 1994. Incumbent Rick Scott (R) won the 2010 and 2014 gubernatorial races by about 1 percentage point each.
  • Gillum and DeSantis discussed a number of policies at the debate, including healthcare, school funding, taxes, and gun policy.
  • Gillum and DeSantis also participated in a CNN debate three days earlier and had been scheduled to participate in a Telemundo debate on Oct. 16. Gillum dropped out of the Telemundo debate, saying he needed to focus on helping the city of Tallahassee, where he serves as mayor, respond to damage from Hurricane Michael.

California Proposition 8 opposition breaks record for largest amount raised by a ballot measure campaign

  • $5.4 million in new contributions were reported for the committee opposing California Proposition 8, pushing the campaign’s total contributions to $111 million.
  • Proposition 8 would require dialysis clinics to issue refunds to patients or patients' payers for revenue above 115 percent of the costs of direct patient care and healthcare improvements.
  • Between Yes on Prop 8 and No on Prop 8, a combined $129.88 million was raised; the support campaign had raised $18.9 million, with 95 percent from SEIU-UHW West. Proposition 8 surpassed 2016's most expensive ballot measure, California Proposition 61, which saw $128.28 million in combined contributions. No on Prop 8 also surpassed the campaign against Proposition 61, with No on Prop 8 receiving $111.02 from dialysis firms and No on Prop 61 receiving $109.11 from PhRMA-affiliated companies.

Latest poll for California Proposition 10 shows 60 percent opposition; 12 points higher than any previous poll

  • The Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) surveyed 989 likely voters on Proposition 10, finding 25 percent in support, 60 percent in opposition, and 15 percent undecided. A majority of Republicans (72 percent), independents (61 percent), and Democrats (54 percent) opposed Proposition 10.
  • Proposition 10 would allow local governments to adopt rent control on any type of rental housing, thus repealing the Costa-Hawkins Rental Housing Act.
    • Previous polls tracked by Ballotpedia showed a closer race with the following results:
      • SurveyUSA (10/14): 35 percent support, 46 percent opposition, 18 percent undecided
      • USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times (10/14): 41 percent support, 37 percent opposition, and 21 percent undecided.
      • Public Policy Institute of California (9/18): 36 percent support, 48 percent opposition, 16 percent undecided.
  • The support campaign for Proposition 10, backed by the AIDS Healthcare Foundation, had raised $25.1 million as of October 26, 2018. The opposition campaign had raised $64.3 million, with the top five donors from the real estate industry.

Thursday, October 25

Supporters have 16 times more in contributions than opponents in a $17 million battle over Ohio Issue 1 according to final pre-election campaign finance report

  • The final pre-election campaign finance report for Ohio Issue 1 was released. Ohio Issue 1, according to the measure's text, was designed to reduce the number of people in state prisons for low-level, nonviolent crimes, such as drug possession and non-criminal probation violations. Issue 1 would make offenses related to drug possession and use no more than misdemeanors.
  • The Ohio Safe and Healthy Communities (OSHC) Campaign is leading the campaign in support of Ohio Issue 1. Vote No Protect Ohio is leading the campaign in opposition. The OSHC Campaign out-raised Vote No Protect Ohio by almost 16 to 1.
  • According to the final pre-election campaign finance, which covers contributions through October 17, 2018, the OSHC Campaign had raised $16.05 million. The ten largest contributions to the OSHC Campaign came from entities or persons registered to addresses outside of Ohio—five in California, three in D.C., one in New York, and one in Oklahoma. The largest contributor was the Chan Zuckerberg Advocacy, which had donated $3.00 million. Chan Zuckerberg Advocacy is a 501(c)(4) organization that acts as the public policy advocacy fund for the Chan Zuckerber Initiative, which was founded by Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg and his wife, Priscilla Chan. The Tides Advocacy Fund was the second largest donor, providing $2.64 million.
  • Vote No Protect Ohio had received $1.02 million. The ten largest contributions to Vote No Protect Ohio came from entities or persons registered to addresses inside Ohio. The largest contribution was the Ohioans for a Healthy Economy, a 501(c)(4) nonprofit organization that, according to the group's website, is focused on issues related to the state's business climate and economic competitiveness. The second largest contribution was from Western & Southern, an insurance company based in Cincinnati, which provided $150,000.

Local Politics: The Week in Review

Elections Update

WHAT'S ON TAP NEXT WEEK

Here's what is happening in state and local politics this week. To see what happened in federal politics, click here.

Special Elections

  • As of this week, 96 state legislative special elections have been scheduled or held in 26 states. Elections have been held for 26 Democratic seats and 45 Republican seats. Ten seats have flipped from Republican control to Democratic control. Three seats have flipped from Democratic control to Republican control. In special elections between 2011 and 2017, one party (either Republicans or Democrats) saw an average net gain of four seats across the country each year.
    • An average of 90 seats were filled through special elections in each of the past three odd years (2013: 84, 2015: 88, 2017: 98).
    • An average of 44 seats were filled through special elections in each of the past four even years (2010: 26, 2012: 45, 2014: 40, 2016: 65).

Upcoming special elections include:

November 6

December 4

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About

The Tap covered election news, public policy, and other noteworthy events from February 2016 to February 2022.

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