What to look for in the Wisconsin primary
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April 4, 2016
The Democratic and Republican presidential races have a lot on the line in the April 5 Wisconsin primary.
For Democrats, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders hopes to build momentum for his candidacy after winning the Alaska, Hawaii and Washington caucuses on March 26. And GOP leaders across the country will watch the returns with anticipation to see if Texas Sen. Ted Cruz can slow the campaign of Republican frontrunner and billionaire developer Donald Trump. Ohio Gov. John Kasich is also competing in Wisconsin, and could perhaps capture a handful of delegates, but he’s not seen as a threat to finish first.
The Wisconsin Republican presidential primary has 42 pledged national convention delegates. The statewide winner of the GOP primary receives all of Wisconsin’s 18 at-large delegates while the winner in each of the eight congressional districts receives all three of the district delegates allocated in each CD.
Wisconsin Democrats allocate 86 pledged delegates in their presidential primary: 19 pledged at-large delegates, 10 pledged PLEO (party leaders and elected officials) that function like the at-large category are allocated proportionally to candidates who receive at least 15 percent of the statewide primary vote. The 57 pledged district delegates are allocated proportionally to each candidate who breaks the 15 percent threshold in each congressional district. The other ten national convention delegates are “super delegates,” Democratic elected officials and party officials who are automatic unpledged convention delegates and can support whomever they want.
All polls in Wisconsin close at 8:00 PM CST (9:00 PM EST). That is the earliest time that the television networks could make a projection, but given the closeness of both races, that’s unlikely to happen. Even if Sanders takes an early lead the network analysts may want to wait to make their calls, because Milwaukee County, traditionally the state’s largest Democratic vote producer, tends to report its tally later than other counties. Moreover, Milwaukee has the largest concentration of African-American voters who have been Hillary Clinton’s most loyal supporters, especially those who are 30 years or older.
According to Kevin Kennedy, Director and General Counsel for the Wisconsin Government Accountability Board, the state’s chief elections official, there are roughly 4.44 million eligible voters in the state. Registered voters can vote in either primary. Wisconsin also has same-day registration. Kennedy estimated that turnout on April 5 would be 40 percent or 1.75 million voters. That would be the highest turnout for a Wisconsin presidential primary since 1980, when turnout was 45 percent. A hotly contested judicial retention Wisconsin Supreme Court election between Rebecca Bradley, who was appointed to the Wisconsin high court by Governor Scott Walker in October 2015, and Court of Appeals Judge JoAnne Kloppenburg will also bring voters to the polls on April 5.
Past Wisconsin Presidential Primary Turnouts:
| Year | Democrat | Republican |
| 2012 | 300,255 | 787,847 |
| 2008 | 1,113,753 | 410,607 |
| 2004 | 828,364 | 160,428 |
| 2000 | 371,196 | 495,769 |
| 1996 | 356,168 | 576,575 |
| 1992 | 772,596 | 482,248 |
| 1988 | 1,014,782 | 359,294 |
| 1984 | 635,768 | 294,813 |
| 1980 | 629,619 | 907,853 |
| 1976 | 740,528 | 591,812 |
| 1972 | 1,128,584 | 286,444 |
Wisconsin’s presidential primary has a rich history. It knocked Wendell Willkie out of the GOP presidential race in 1944, and General Douglas MacArthur (a favorite of Trump’s) in 1948. In the 1960 Democratic race it gave momentum to John F. Kennedy’s candidacy over rival Hubert H. Humphrey who hailed from next-door Minnesota, prompted President Lyndon B. Johnson to announce he would not seek a second term as Eugene McCarthy was about to beat him here in 1968, gave George McGovern his first victory in 1972 Democratic race and gave Jimmy Carter a key victory in 1976—after ABC and NBC mistakenly called the primary for Mo Udall.
In 2008, Barack Obama, supported by incumbent Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle and veteran Rep. David Obey, the dean of the Wisconsin congressional delegation, defeated Hillary Clinton. He lost only 10 of the state’s 72 counties, largely rural ones. Clinton won 50 percent of women, according to the television network exit poll, but Obama got the votes of 67% of men. He won 68% of the vote in Dane County, home to the university and Madison, and 64% in Milwaukee County, with its large African-American population.
In the 2012 presidential race, Wisconsin delivered the final blow to Rick Santorum’s chances for the GOP nomination. Gov. Scott Walker (R), who has endorsed Texas Sen. Cruz, remained neutral, but Rep. Paul Ryan (R) endorsed Mitt Romney and stumped for him around the state. (Romney, now the Speaker of the House of Representatives, is neutral this year.) Santorum was able to carry most rural counties, but Romney won big margins in Milwaukee and affluent suburbs and carried the state. Santorum insisted he would remain in the race through the primary in his native Pennsylvania three weeks later, but suspended his campaign shortly after his loss in Wisconsin.
Sanders, who is popular among younger voters, should do well in the state’s university belt, from Rock County in the south, home to Beloit College, in Janesville, through Dane, up to La Crosse and Eau Clair Counties, which both have University of Wisconsin system campuses. Clinton needs a big vote out of Milwaukee. Cruz is likely to perform well in the suburban and exurban counties around Milwaukee. Trump’s best territory could be in the northern rural portions of the state, where the electorate is older. A key battleground in the Republican contest could be Fox River Valley in the eastern part of the state and it’s blue-collar communities of Green Bay, Appleton, Oshkosh and Fond du Lac.
Republican Presidential Primary 2012
Mitt Romney: 44%
Rick Santorum: 37%
Ron Paul: 11%
Newt Gingrich: 6%
Democratic Presidential Primary 2008
Barack Obama: 58%
Hillary Clinton: 41%
To follow the Wisconsin primary returns on the Internet, check out this website: http://www.gab.wi.gov/
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics. He is a member of the CNN Decision Desk and will be helping to project the Democratic and Republican winners throughout the election cycle.
See also
- Presidential election in Wisconsin, 2016
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Presidential election, 2016/Polls
- 2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards
- Presidential election, 2016/Straw polls
