Cruz wins Iowa the old-fashioned way
Iowa Democrats feel the Bern and Presidential election in Iowa, 2016
This article covering the 2016 presidential election was written outside the scope of Ballotpedia's encyclopedic coverage and does not fall under our neutrality policy or style guidelines. It is preserved as it was originally written. For our encyclopedic coverage of the 2016 election, click here.
 Date: November 8, 2016 |
Winner: Donald Trump (R) Hillary Clinton (D) • Jill Stein (G) • Gary Johnson (L) • Vice presidential candidates |
Important dates • Nominating process • Ballotpedia's 2016 Battleground Poll • Polls • Debates • Presidential election by state • Ratings and scorecards |
2028 • 2024 • 2020 • 2016 Have you subscribed yet?
Join the hundreds of thousands of readers trusting Ballotpedia to keep them up to date with the latest political news. Sign up for the Daily Brew.
|
This page was current as of the 2016 election.
February 2, 2016
James A. Barnes is a member of the CNN Decision Desk and he helped to project the Democratic and Republican winners in Iowa.
Celebrity politics did not trump the Iowa Republican Caucuses. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz captured the first-in-the-nation GOP nominating contest relying on some constants in Iowa. He built a superior organization that turned out his vote and capitalized on an extraordinary turnout of born-again and Evangelical Christians, who, according to the television networks’ exit poll, made up nearly two-thirds of the Iowa GOP caucus-goers. And Cruz won a plurality, about a third, of those voters. In the 2012 caucuses, 57 percent of those who cast ballots in the Republican caucuses described themselves as born-again or Evangelical.
| Iowa Republican Caucus, 2016 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes | Delegates | |
 Ted Cruz |
27.7% | 51,666 | 8 | |
| Donald Trump | 24.3% | 45,427 | 7 | |
| Marco Rubio | 23.1% | 43,165 | 7 | |
| Ben Carson | 9.3% | 17,395 | 3 | |
| Rand Paul | 4.5% | 8,481 | 1 | |
| Jeb Bush | 2.8% | 5,238 | 1 | |
| Carly Fiorina | 1.9% | 3,485 | 1 | |
| John Kasich | 1.9% | 3,474 | 1 | |
| Mike Huckabee | 1.8% | 3,345 | 1 | |
| Chris Christie | 1.8% | 3,284 | 0 | |
| Rick Santorum | 1% | 1,783 | 0 | |
| Totals | 186,743 | 30 | ||
| Source: The Des Moines Register, "Iowa Caucus Results" | ||||
Billionaire businessman and reality TV star Donald Trump, the candidate who had led in the pre-caucus polls and the estimates of the websites that aggregate poll results, came in second. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio finished third.
Overall, the ideological makeup of the GOP caucus electorate was no more conservative than it was four years ago. But still, about two-out-of-five Republican caucus attendees described themselves as “very conservative.” And among that group, Cruz won a strong plurality, about 44 percent, more than Trump and Rubio combined.
Cruz’s victory was consistent with that of other recent Iowa Republican caucus victors. With about 98 percent of the precincts reporting, Cruz prevailed in counties that exemplify rural and small town Iowa, especially in the western and central part of the state. Cruz was winning 49 of the 74 counties that Mike Huckabee carried on his way to winning the 2008 GOP caucuses and 40 of the 63 counties that Rick Santorum carried when he captured the 2012 GOP caucuses.
The turnout in the Republican caucuses set a new record with roughly 187,000 voting. The old record set in 2012 was almost 122,000.
For election and demographic information by county, please click on the below maps.
| Color Key |
|---|
| Winning candidate |
| Ted Cruz |
| Donald Trump |
| Marco Rubio |
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics. He has conducted elite opinion surveys for National Journal, CNN and the on-line polling firm, YouGov.
See also
- Iowa Democrats feel the Bern
- Presidential election in Iowa, 2016
- Presidential Nominating Index: Clinton rules, but Sanders also rising
- Presidential Nominating Index: GOP elites tilt to Trump
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Presidential election, 2016/Polls
- 2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards
- Presidential election, 2016/Straw polls
