Arizona's 2nd Congressional District

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Arizona's 2nd Congressional District
Arizona's 2nd.jpg
Incumbent
Ann Kirkpatrick Democratic Party
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): R+1
U.S. Census Bureau (2010 data)[1]
Population: 722,918
Gender: 50.8% Female, 49.2% Male
Race[2]: 81.8% White, 4.1% Black, 3.2% Asian
Ethnicity: 26.5% Hispanic
Unemployment: 10.7%
Median household income
$44,921
High school graduation rate
90.1%
College graduation rate
30.3%

The 2nd District is located in the southeastern corner of Arizona and includes Cochise County and part of Pima County.[3]

The current representative of the 2nd Congressional District is Ann Kirkpatrick (D).

Elections

2020

See also: Arizona's 2nd Congressional District election, 2020

General election candidates

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.

Democratic Party Democratic primary candidates


Did not make the ballot:

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.

Republican Party Republican primary candidates


Did not make the ballot:

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.

2018

See also: Arizona's 2nd Congressional District election, 2018

General election
General election for U.S. House Arizona District 2

Ann Kirkpatrick defeated Lea Marquez Peterson in the general election for U.S. House Arizona District 2 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/AnnKirkpatrick.jpg

Ann Kirkpatrick (D)
 
54.7
 
161,000

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/LeaMarquez.jpeg

Lea Marquez Peterson (R)
 
45.2
 
133,083
  Other/Write-in votes
 
0.0
 
 69

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 294,152
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Democratic election
Democratic primary for U.S. House Arizona District 2

The following candidates ran in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Arizona District 2 on August 28, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/AnnKirkpatrick.jpg

Ann Kirkpatrick
 
41.9
 
33,938

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Matt_Heinz.gif

Matt Heinz
 
29.6
 
23,992

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/MMatiella.jpg

Mary Matiella
 
9.4
 
7,606

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Bruce_Wheeler.gif

Bruce Wheeler
 
8.4
 
6,814

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Kovacs1.jpg

Billy Kovacs
 
6.6
 
5,350

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Barbara_Sherry.jpg

Barbara Sherry
 
2.6
 
2,074

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/yahya.jpg

Yahya Yuksel
 
1.6
 
1,319

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 81,093
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Republican election
Republican primary for U.S. House Arizona District 2

Lea Marquez Peterson defeated Brandon Martin, Casey Welch, and Danny Morales in the Republican primary for U.S. House Arizona District 2 on August 28, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/LeaMarquez.jpeg

Lea Marquez Peterson
 
34.2
 
23,571

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Brandon-Martin.jpg

Brandon Martin
 
28.7
 
19,809

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Casey_Welch_for_Congress.jpg

Casey Welch
 
21.0
 
14,499

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/IMG_6407.JPG

Danny Morales
 
16.1
 
11,135

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 69,014
(100.00% precincts reporting)

2016

See also: Arizona's 2nd Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Martha McSally (R) defeated former state Rep. Matt Heinz (D) and Ed Tilton Jr. (L write-in) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Heinz defeated Victoria Steele in the Democratic primary on August 30, 2016.[4][5][6][7][8]

U.S. House, Arizona District 2 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngMartha McSally Incumbent 57% 179,806
     Democratic Matt Heinz 43% 135,873
Total Votes 315,679
Source: Arizona Secretary of State

U.S. House, Arizona District 2 Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngMatt Heinz 52.8% 32,017
Victoria Steele 47.2% 28,658
Total Votes 60,675
Source: Arizona Secretary of State

2014

BattlegroundRace.jpg
See also: Arizona's 2nd Congressional District elections, 2014

Arizona's 2nd Congressional District was a battleground district in 2014 due to the fact that the seat was held by a Democrat, but the district had roughly even numbers of registered Democrats and Republicans and was won by the Republican presidential candidate in 2008 and 2012. Incumbent Ron Barber faced no challenger in the Democratic primary. In the Republican primary, Martha McSally triumphed over Chuck Wooten and Shelley Kais. Barber and McSally faced off in the general election on November 4, 2014, in a rematch of the 2012 general election. The election took over six weeks to decide, and McSally was crowned the winner following a mandatory recount that took place after the official canvass and certification of votes on December 1. In 2012, Barber narrowly defeated McSally by 0.8 percent of the vote.[9][10][11]

U.S. House, Arizona District 2 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngMartha McSally 50% 109,704
     Democratic Ron Barber Incumbent 49.9% 109,543
     Write-in Sampson U. Ramirez 0% 56
     Write-in Sydney Dudikoff 0% 48
Total Votes 219,351
Source: Arizona Secretary of State

2012

See also: Arizona's 2nd Congressional District elections, 2012
U.S. House, Arizona District 2 General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngRon Barber Incumbent 50.4% 147,338
     Republican Martha McSally 49.6% 144,884
     Libertarian Anthony Powell 0% 57
Total Votes 292,279
Source: Arizona Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"

2010
On November 2, 2010, Trent Franks won re-election to the United States House. He defeated John Thrasher (D), Powell Gammill (L), William Crum (Write-in) and Mark Rankin (Write-in) in the general election.[12]

U.S. House, Arizona District 2 General Election, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngTrent Franks incumbent 64.9% 173,173
     Democratic John Thrasher 31.1% 82,891
     Libertarian Powell Gammill 4.1% 10,820
     Write-in William Crum 0% 8
     Write-in Mark Rankin 0% 2
Total Votes 266,894

2008
On November 4, 2008, Trent Franks won re-election to the United States House. He defeated John Thrasher (D), Powell Gammill (L) and William Crum (G) in the general election.[13]

U.S. House, Arizona District 2 General Election, 2008
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngTrent Franks incumbent 59.4% 200,914
     Democratic John Thrasher 37.2% 125,611
     Libertarian Powell Gammill 2.3% 7,882
     Green William Crum 1.1% 3,616
Total Votes 338,023

2006
On November 7, 2006, Trent Franks won re-election to the United States House. He defeated John Thrasher (D) and Powell Gammill (L) in the general election.[14]

U.S. House, Arizona District 2 General Election, 2006
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngTrent Franks incumbent 58.6% 135,150
     Democratic John Thrasher 38.9% 89,671
     Libertarian Powell Gammill 2.5% 5,734
     N/A Write-in 0% 5
Total Votes 230,560

2004
On November 2, 2004, Trent Franks won re-election to the United States House. He defeated Randy Camacho (D) and Powell Gammill (L) in the general election.[15]

U.S. House, Arizona District 2 General Election, 2004
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngTrent Franks incumbent 59.2% 165,260
     Democratic Randy Camacho 38.5% 107,406
     Libertarian Powell Gammill 2.4% 6,625
     N/A Write-in 0% 12
Total Votes 279,303

2002
On November 5, 2002, Trent Franks won election to the United States House. He defeated Randy Camacho (D), Edward Carlson (L) and William Crum (Write-in) in the general election.[16]

U.S. House, Arizona District 2 General Election, 2002
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngTrent Franks 59.9% 100,359
     Democratic Randy Camacho 36.5% 61,217
     Libertarian Edward Carlson 3.5% 5,919
     Write-in William Crum 0% 7
Total Votes 167,502

2000
On November 7, 2000, Ed Pastor won re-election to the United States House. He defeated Bill Barenholtz (R), Geoffrey Weber (L) and Barbara Shelor (Natural Law) in the general election.[17]

U.S. House, Arizona District 2 General Election, 2000
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngEd Pastor incumbent 68.5% 84,034
     Republican Bill Barenholtz 26.9% 32,990
     Libertarian Geoffrey Weber 2.6% 3,169
     Natural Law Barbara Shelor 2% 2,412
Total Votes 122,605

1998
On November 3, 1998, Ed Pastor won re-election to the United States House. He defeated Ed Barron (R), Rick Duncan (L) and Gregory Schultz (Reform) in the general election.[18]

U.S. House, Arizona District 2 General Election, 1998
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngEd Pastor incumbent 67.8% 57,178
     Republican Ed Barron 28% 23,628
     Libertarian Rick Duncan 3.1% 2,646
     Reform Gregory Schultz 1.1% 911
Total Votes 84,363

1996
On November 5, 1996, Ed Pastor won re-election to the United States House. He defeated Jim Buster (R) and Alice Bangle (L) in the general election.[19]

U.S. House, Arizona District 2 General Election, 1996
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngEd Pastor incumbent 65% 81,982
     Republican Jim Buster 30.8% 38,786
     Libertarian Alice Bangle 4.2% 5,333
Total Votes 126,101

1994
On November 8, 1994, Ed Pastor won re-election to the United States House. He defeated Robert Macdonald (R) and James Bertrand (L) in the general election.[20]

U.S. House, Arizona District 2 General Election, 1994
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngEd Pastor incumbent 62.3% 62,589
     Republican Robert Macdonald 32.7% 32,797
     Libertarian James Bertrand 5% 5,060
Total Votes 100,446

1992
On November 3, 1992, Ed Pastor won election to the United States House. He defeated Don Shooter (R) and Dan Detaranto (L) in the general election.[21]

U.S. House, Arizona District 2 General Election, 1992
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngEd Pastor 66% 90,693
     Republican Don Shooter 30% 41,257
     Libertarian Dan Detaranto 3.9% 5,423
     N/A Write-in 0% 5
Total Votes 137,378

1990
On November 6, 1990, Morris Udall won re-election to the United States House. He defeated Joseph Sweeney (R) in the general election.[22]

U.S. House, Arizona District 2 General Election, 1990
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngMorris Udall incumbent 65.9% 76,549
     Republican Joseph Sweeney 34.1% 39,586
     N/A Write-in 0% 44
Total Votes 116,179

Redistricting

2010-2011

This is the 2nd Congressional District of Arizona after the 2001 redistricting process. The current district is displayed in the infobox at the top of the page.
See also: Redistricting in Arizona

In 2011, the Arizona State Legislature re-drew the congressional districts based on updated population information from the 2010 census.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+1, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 1 percentage point more Republican than the national average. This made Arizona's 2nd Congressional District the 232nd most Republican nationally.[23]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.94. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.94 points toward that party.[24]

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Demographic data were added to this page in 2013. Ballotpedia will update this page in 2021 after data from the 2020 Census become available.
  2. ↑ Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.
  3. ↑ Arizona Redistricting, "Map," accessed July 7, 2012
  4. ↑ The Tucson Weekly, "It's Official: State Rep. Victoria Steele is Running for Congress & Hopes to Unseat McSally," July 7, 2015
  5. ↑ Azcentral, "Democrat joins race for Congress against Martha McSally," July 30, 2015
  6. ↑ Arizona Secretary of State, "2016 Primary Candidates," accessed June 2, 2016
  7. ↑ Politico, " Arizona House Primaries Results," August 30, 2016
  8. ↑ CNN, "Election Results," accessed November 8, 2016
  9. ↑ Politico, "2014 Arizona House Primaries Results," accessed August 27, 2014
  10. ↑ Arizona Secretary of State, "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election," accessed July 16, 2014
  11. ↑ Arizona Public Media, "UPDATE: McSally Wins Congressional Seat, Recount Confirms," December 17, 2014
  12. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013
  13. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 4, 2008," accessed March 28, 2013
  14. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 7, 2006," accessed March 28, 2013
  15. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2004," accessed March 28, 2013
  16. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 5, 2002," accessed March 28, 2013
  17. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 7, 2000," accessed March 28, 2013
  18. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 3, 1998," accessed March 28, 2013
  19. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 5, 1996," accessed March 28, 2013
  20. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 8, 1994," accessed March 28, 2013
  21. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 3, 1992," accessed March 28, 2013
  22. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 6, 1990," accessed March 28, 2013
  23. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  24. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
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