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CNN Republican debate (September 16, 2015)
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This article focuses exclusively on the second Republican debate hosted by CNN on September 16, 2015. Click here to access Ballotpedia's full 2015-2016 presidential debate coverage. A schedule for Republican primary debates can be found below.
Ballotpedia's coverage of the second Republican debate—which took place on September 16, 2015—includes an overview of the event's basic information, a post-debate summary, the results of our Insiders Poll and post-debate commentary written by David Kusnet (Podesta Group), Karlyn Bowman (American Enterprise Institute) and James A. Barnes (Ballotpedia). The debate consisted of two back-to-back halves: Segment A and Segment B. CNN used polling data to determine which candidates would participate in each segment. More information on participants and CNN's rules for inclusion can be found in the "Basic Information" tab below.
Basic Information
Date: September 16, 2015
Time: 6:00 pm EDT
Location: Simi Valley, California
Venue: Ronald Reagan Presidential Library
Sponsors: CNN, Salem Media Group and The Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation
Moderators: Jake Tapper, Hugh Hewitt and Dana Bash
Rules for inclusion: CNN announced its rules for participant inclusion in May 2015. The official participant list was released on September 10, 2015. Participants were required to meet the following criteria:
- fulfill all constitutional requirements for president;
- file an official statement of candidacy;
- have visited at least two of the following states no later than August 26: Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina;
- have one or more paid campaign aides working in at least two of the four states listed above by August 26; and
- attain an average of 1 percent or higher in three national polls released between July 16, 2015, and September 10, 2015, as recognized by CNN;
- agree to accept the rules and format of the debate.
On September 1, 2015, CNN amended its participation criteria to include:[1]
| “ | a candidate (or candidates) polling in the top ten in qualifying polls between August 7 and September 10, but not polling in the top ten in polls between July 16 and September 10, that candidate (or candidates) will be added to the debate stage and will appear in "Segment B" of the debate.[2] | ” |
Candidates were divided into two "segments": Segment A and Segment B. Segment A candidates participated in the first half of the event. Segment B candidates participated in the second half of the event. The two halves took place back-to-back. CNN used polling averages to determine which candidates will participate in each segment. The top eleven candidates based on an average of all "qualifying polls" were placed in Segment B. Candidates who placed outside of the top eleven, but still achieved "an average of at least one percent in three national polls," were placed in Segment A.
Along with its inclusion criteria, CNN also announced what polls it used for determining averages. All polls were to be conducted by a live interviewer and sponsored by one of the following organizations: ABC/Washington Post, Bloomberg, CBS/New York Times, CNN, FOX, Gallup, Marist, McClatchy, Monmouth University, NBC/Wall Street Journal, Pew Research Center, Quinnipiac, USA Today or Time. For the second round tie-breaker, organizations include those listed above as well as Clemson University, the Des Moines Register, the Las Vegas Review-Journal, the University of New Hampshire, the University of Nevada Las Vegas and Winthrop University.[3]
Participants
Nancy Reagan, the former first lady and widow of former President Ronald Reagan (R), sent out invitations to 16 Republican candidates on August 11, 2015. The only candidate not invited was former Governor of Virginia Jim Gilmore, who did not meet CNN's inclusion criteria at the time Reagan sent out the invitations.[4] CNN partitioned candidates into Segments A and B on September 10, 2015, using the methods described above. Rick Perry was originally scheduled to appear with the Segment A candidates, but he suspended his campaign on September 11, 2015.[5]
Segment A
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Segment B
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Summary
September 16, 2015
By Charles Aull
Fourteen Republican candidates for President participated in a presidential debate tonight at the Ronald Reagan Library in Simi Valley, California. The debate was sponsored by CNN, Salem Media Group and The Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation. It was divided into two halves. Four candidates debated from roughly 6:20 to 7:50 pm EDT. Eleven more candidates debated from 8:15 to 11:15 pm EST.
CNN established rules for participation in the debate and determined which candidates would participate in each section. Participants were required to fulfill all constitutional requirements for president; file an official statement of candidacy; have visited at least two of the following states no later than August 26: Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina; have one or more paid campaign aides working in at least two of the four states listed above by August 26; and attain an average of 1 percent or higher in three national polls released between July 16, 2015, and September 10, 2015, as recognized by CNN.
CNN divided candidates into two halves based on polling data: Segment A, which went first, and Segment B, which went second. Initially, CNN planned to take the top 10 highest polling candidates based on an average of polls between July 16 and September 10 and place them in Segment B. The other candidates, provided that they attained a polling average of at least 1 percent, would go into Segment A. On September 1, however, CNN amended its rules to allow into Segment B candidates who placed in the top 10 between between August 7 and September 10, but did not place in the top 10 between July 16 and September 10. They also allowed for the possibility of an 11th candidate in Segment B, which turned out to be Carly Fiorina.
Segment A candidates included Rick Santorum, Bobby Jindal, George Pataki and Lindsey Graham. Rick Perry also qualified for Segment A, but he suspended his campaign on September 11. Jim Gilmore did not meet the 1 percent polling threshold and was therefore not invited to the debate.
Segment B candidates included Donald Trump, Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, John Kasich, Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina.
Jake Tapper, Dana Bash and Hugh Hewitt moderated the debate.
The rules for both halves were the same. Candidates were each allowed 30 seconds at the beginning of the debate to introduce themselves. They were allowed to have a pen, a blank notebook and a bottle of water behind their podiums. They had one minute to respond to direct questions, and, if another candidate mentioned their name, they were given 30 seconds for a rebuttal.
Both halves of the debate featured significant deviations from these rules. Candidates engaged in direct back-and-forth exchanges with one another multiple times. In the first half, for example, Lindsey Graham and Rick Santorum went back and forth in a debate over immigration. In the second half, Donald Trump engaged directly with Jeb Bush and Carly Fiorina.
Questions came from the three moderators and social media users. Topics ranged from leadership styles, qualifications and electability to immigration, social security, the tax code, climate change and foreign policy. Some questions were tied directly to recent events, such as a question about religious liberty that the moderator framed in the context of Kim Davis, a county clerk in Kentucky who was recently imprisoned for refusing to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples. In the first half of the debate, a question about the proper balance between national security and discrimination centered on a 14-year-old Muslim high school student who was briefly detained in Texas this morning after his homemade clock was mistaken for a fake bomb. On several occasions, the moderators also asked candidates to respond to comments made by their opponents. Carly Fiorina, for instance, was asked to respond to a comment that Donald Trump made about her personal appearance (or persona, as he has argued). Similarly, Rand Paul was asked to respond to comments by Chris Christie about marijuana legalization and decriminalization.
The night ended with candidates offering one minute responses to the question of how the world would look after they left office.
The order in which candidates stood on stage reflected their rankings in the polls that CNN used to determine participation in the debate. Candidates in the middle ranked the highest. Those on the wings ranked the lowest. In the first half, candidates stood, from left to right: Pataki, Santorum, Jindal and Graham. In the second half, from left to right: Paul, Huckabee, Rubio, Cruz, Carson, Trump, Bush, Walker, Fiorina, Kasich and Christie.
A full transcript of the first half of the debate can be found here. The second half can be found here.
Statistics
This article analyzes the central themes of the Republican presidential debate held on September 16, 2015, and how the moderators and candidates engaged with each subject and each other.
Segments
The September Republican presidential debate featured 27 unique segments touching on a range of political, domestic, foreign policy and national security issues. These segments were measured by any shift in the discussion prompted by one of the moderators: Dana Bash, Hugh Hewitt and Jake Tapper.
- Introductions
- Donald Trump's temperament
- Politicians vs. outsiders
- Campaign finance and special interest groups
- Russia & Syria
- Iran nuclear deal
- Cybersecurity and China
- Bashar Assad and the Syrian refugee crisis
- Religious liberty
- Defunding Planned Parenthood and a potential government shutdown
- Women's health issues
- Immigration reform
- Birthright citizenship
- Business experience
- Taxes
- Leadership and communication style
- Foreign policy knowledge
- Military leadership
- Chief Justice John Roberts and the Supreme Court
- Marijuana legalization
- Second Amendment rights
- Social Security
- Climate change
- Mandatory vaccination
- Recommending a woman to appear on the $10 bill
- Secret Service code names
- Planned presidential legacy
Overall participation
Participation in a segment was defined by a substantive comment related to the segment's topic. Jokes and attempts to gain permission from a moderator to speak were not considered participatory speech acts. In some instances, candidates who participated in a segment diverted from the prompted topic.
Donald Trump spoke on the greatest number of topics, participating in 17 different segments. Carly Fiorina and Jeb Bush followed with 15 segments and 14 segments, respectively. Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee and Scott Walker spoke on the fewest subjects, engaging in only 10 segments each.
Candidate participation by segment vs. time
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| Bush | Carson | Christie | Cruz | Fiorina | Huckabee | Kasich | Paul | Rubio | Trump | Walker | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Segments | 14 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 17 | 10 |
| Time (min.) | 15.3 | 12.5 | 12.3 | 11 | 13 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 19.5 | 8 |
Source: CNN
The amount of time a candidate spoke did not necessarily reflect the breadth of his or her contributions to the debate. For example, Ben Carson spoke for 12.5 minutes in 10 different segments. Scott Walker, by comparison, spoke 4.5 minutes less than Carson did and covered the same number of segments.
Candidate participation by behavior
Participation in the debate was also measured by the candidate's behavior during each segment. This study considered whether a candidate was initially prompted to speak during a segment by a moderator or whether he or she independently engaged in the segment by interrupting another candidate or calling on the moderator for permission to speak.
Carly Fiorina was the most aggressive candidate, attempting to interject herself into seven different segments before a moderator could prompt her. Ted Cruz was the only candidate who never engaged in a segment without first being prompted by a moderator.
Donald Trump received the most attention from the moderators, participating in 15 segments as a result of their prompting. The moderators attempted to engage Scott Walker the least, only prompting him to join a segment's discussion six times.
Segments by participation
Aside from introductions and the final three questions asked of all candidates, the segment on military leadership had the most participants, with all Republican presidential candidates except for Ted Cruz participating. Immigration reform was the second most discussed topic with 7 candidates weighing in.
The segments on the Iran nuclear deal, religious liberty, the importance of foreign policy knowledge and Social Security featured the fewest candidate voices with only two each.
Moderator prompts
Of the 27 topical segments, 17 were prompted with a question from a moderator asking one candidate to comment on another candidate's position. For example, Jake Tapper's first question following the candidates' introductions called on Carly Fiorina to speak to Donald Trump's temperament and whether she would "feel comfortable" with his "finger on the nuclear codes."
A total of six segment prompts related to a position or statement by Trump. Chris Christie, Ted Cruz and Carly Fiorina each had two segment prompts focused on one of their positions. Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, John Kasich, Marco Rubio and Scott Walker were each featured in one subject prompt. Neither Mike Huckabee nor Rand Paul had policy positions used to introduce any segments.
Candidate analysis
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Ballotpedia's Insiders Poll
Insiders: Fiorina shows she belongs on the big stage
September 17, 2015
By James A. Barnes
Carly Fiorina demonstrated on Wednesday night that she belongs on the main debate stage. Indeed, in a survey of more than 140 Republican and Democratic political Insiders surveyed by Ballotpedia, roughly half judged Fiorina to be the "biggest winner" of the September 16 GOP debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library conducted by CNN.
"It is becoming clear that of the outsider candidates, she is the one who speaks with the most authority, understanding and class," observed one GOP Insider. "She was strong, in command of the facts, and had a real presence on stage," added a Democratic Insider.
Ballotpedia surveyed 145 Republican and Democratic strategists, pollsters, media consultants, activists, lobbyists and allied interest groups operatives after the debate concluded: 95 Republicans responded and 50 Democrats participated. This survey was conducted anonymously to encourage candor from Insiders. As political professionals, Insiders often view events like debates through a similar prism—at least on the main result: 49 percent of the GOP Insiders said Fiorina won the debate, as did 47 percent of the Democrats.
Who was the biggest winner? - Republican Responses
Who was the biggest winner? - Democratic Responses
One of the principle reasons that Republican Insiders thought Fiorina shined, was her ability to land punches on the putative frontrunner, Donald Trump—something that his rivals were unable to do in the first GOP debate in Cleveland.
"Concise, authoritative comments and parried well with Trump," said one GOP Insider. Echoed another, Fiorina "stood out, sharp, substantive, aggressive, right tone in taking on Trump." Added a third: "She just destroyed Trump."
Whether or not Fiorina has fatally wounded Trump, remains to be seen—he has defied predictions of his demise before. But the Republican Party clearly has a new star among its White House contenders. Fiorina even evoked metaphors in two different sports to describe her showing. "If this were a football game, you want Carly with the ball on the last minute play," gushed one GOP Insider. Another simply declared her performance a "home run."
Democratic Insiders also gave Fiorina her due. "Fiorina is now the anti-Trump," said one. "She is a smart cookie," added another.
Insiders felt other candidates had their moments and Republicans thought Jeb Bush was a distant runner-up to Fiorina in the Sept. 16 debate. "He was the adult in the room," said one GOP influential. "But most of the traditional candidates and Carly out did Trump and Carson. Neither is remotely ready for a debate against a Democrat let alone be President." Fellow Floridian Sen. Marco Rubio also turned in a solid showing. "He looked and sounded the most presidential," observed one Republican. Another maintained, "Gov. Christie was the big winner tonight; put himself right back into the conversation."
Democrats were more likely to note that Trump was a winner, in part, because he likely remains the GOP’s poll leader. "It's doubtful 'the Donald' lost ground even though his performance was lackluster,” said one Democratic Insider. "Fiorina may have gained some, but not from Trump supporters as any women offended by Trump were never going to be in his camp anyway." Another professed, "He is getting more comfortable. Carson a joke of a place holder and Trump will get most of those votes."
Ben Carson got more props from Democrats, as well. "Carson said little, but sounded reasonable and likable as he said it," said on Democratic Insider.
As to who was the biggest loser in the debate, once again, a plurality of Republican Insiders said it was Trump. But compared to the 49 percent who judged the real estate billionaire the "biggest loser" in the Aug. 6 GOP presidential debate, only 33 percent said Trump was the biggest loser in the Sept. 16 showdown.
Who was the biggest loser? - Republican Responses
"The air began to come out of the [Trump] balloon," predicted one GOP Insider. "Totally out of his league when he didn't have a cheering audience overlooking his obvious lack of depth or even basic understanding." Added another, "The entertainment value is wearing off, and people are starting to try to envision him as president. Not many do."
The other candidates who were deemed by Republican Insiders to have fared poorly were Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul. "It was like Gov. Walker wasn't even there," declared one GOP Insider. "No time, no impact, he wasted three hours of his life with zero return. I would never have expected this just six months ago. He’s done." Of Rand Paul, another Republican operative said, "He was the most quiet, had the least amount of air time and said nothing memorable."
Bush, the candidate Republicans had expected would be the frontrunner at this stage in the GOP race, was rebuked because he "didn't take advantage of the opportunities Trump gave him." Another Republican said of Ohio Gov. John Kasich, "Couldn't add to his first debate performance." And Carson’s laid-back style came in for criticism: "He failed to seize several opportunities to aggressively contrast himself with Trump, specifically on vaccinations."
The candidate from the preliminary debate that Republican Insiders said they would "most liked to have seen participate" in the main event was South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham: 63 percent picked the Senate veteran who pressed national security issues and 31 percent said they would have liked to have seen Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal in the main debate.
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the forthcoming 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics. He has conducted elite opinion surveys for National Journal, CNN and the on-line polling firm, YouGov. This Insiders survey was conducted September 16-17.
Debate Commentary
The columns below were authored by guest columnists and members of Ballotpedia's senior writing staff. The opinions and views belong to the authors.
Fiorina, Rubio & Bush: Prepared to Improvise
September 17, 2015
By David Kusnet
David Kusnet is a former chief speechwriter for former President Bill Clinton. He is the senior writer and a principal at the Podesta Group, a government relations and public relations firm in Washington, D.C.
As a Democrat, I just might be an impartial judge of last night's Republican presidential debate because I have no horse in this race. While agreeing with little that they said, I’d say the best performers were, in descending order, Carly Fiorina, Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush.
They won because they scored most heavily during the moments that matter most: their answers to unanticipated questions and responses to adversaries' attacks. Long after most of the three-hour, 11-candidate debate is forgotten, those who cover and participate in politics will remember Carly Fiorina devastating Donald Trump with two scathing sentences, Jeb Bush defending his wife and his brother, and Marco Rubio displaying his fluency with foreign policy.
Instead of trying to "wing it" in front of Ronald Reagan's Air Force One, last night’s winners understood this counter-intuitive communications principle: If you want to extemporize effectively, you have to prepare painstakingly. Now here, as some public figures say, "Let me be clear."
Being well-prepared is different from being tightly scripted. Preparation means learning your facts, formulating your positions, framing your arguments and giving systematic thought to how you will address issues and respond to your opponents.
Such serious preparation enabled Fiorina to use the second-tier debate last month as a springboard to the main event last night. Proving she was worthy of her star turn, she dominated her exchanges with Trump about her business record and his. Even more tellingly, when asked to respond to Trump’s crude comments on her "face," she recalled that, just as he had "heard very clearly" what Bush had said about women’s healthcare, women had "heard very clearly" what Trump had said about her.
Similarly, Rubio more than held his own in exchanges with several rivals about the crises in the Middle East, and he and Bush ably defended themselves against Trump’s attacks on candidates who speak Spanish in public appearances.
All these effective exchanges combined familiarity with the facts and well-reasoned arguments with conversational language. Moreover, Fiorina, Rubio and Bush often gave the impression that they were actually answering the questions that they had been asked, rather than simply spouting soundbites or reciting set-piece speeches, as Chris Christie and Scott Walker sometimes seemed to do. Sounding scripted is self-defeating at a time when voters crave "authenticity."
Of the remaining candidates, Rand Paul seemed to know his own mind, returning to his roots as an antiwar libertarian. The sensible, centrist John Kasich presented himself as an experienced pragmatist—perhaps not what GOP primary voters are seeking—and rarely engaged with nor was challenged by his rivals. Ben Carson simply seemed unfamiliar with many issues, and, unlike Trump, he didn’t try to bluff his way through with blustering bravado.
As for Trump, his authoritative manner and monosyllabic certainties seemed not to withstand the counterpunches of rivals who had done what he was too macho to manage: prepare for the debate.
Trump and CNN underwhelmed
September 17, 2015
By Karlyn Bowman
Karlyn Bowman, a widely respected analyst of public opinion, is a senior fellow and research coordinator at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank in Washington, D.C.
In a CBS News/New York Times poll taken a few days before the CNN Republican candidate debate, 63 percent of self-identified Republican primary voters who had selected a candidate in the poll said it was too early to say who they would support, while 37 percent said their minds were made up. Last night’s debate probably reinforced the views of those who aren’t sure who they will end up supporting. It's going to be a long and winding road.
First a word about CNN and its moderators: A three-hour debate? What were they thinking? Even among the campaign junkies I spoke to, it was hard to find anyone who watched the whole thing without a break. It's unlikely that most Americans did. We shouldn't underestimate the difficulty of managing a debate with 11 people on the stage. The moderators' aim last night appeared to be mainly to get the candidates to attack one another—to create political theater, sizzle over substance. That's why television ratings continue to drop. We didn't need the question about their Secret Service code name. In a shorter debate that might have been fun, but in this marathon, it just made the evening seem overly long.
Other recent polls show that Republicans are particularly dissatisfied with their party these days, and that sentiment is driving support for outsider candidates such as Trump, Carson, and Fiorina. So let's start our assessment there.
Is the bloom off the Trump rose? We may have seen the beginning of his decline this week. He could still do well and even win a nomination in a big field, but last night he wasn’t the force he has been and he may be fading. His unprovoked attack on Rand Paul in his opening remarks was bizarre. At the early stages of a campaign, people are trying to decide whether they feel comfortable with a candidate. As time passes, I'm not sure even the GOP's outsider activists will feel comfortable with Trump.
Carly Fiorina had a very good night, and it is clear that she belonged on the main stage. But Chris Christie was right to tackle both Fiorina and Trump about their extended back and forth about their business acumen. She’s determined, quick, and she’s obviously done her homework. She will continue to do well.
Ben Carson exudes affability, and he's gracious. It is great to have him on the GOP's team, but nothing last night suggested he will make it to the top.
Nearly all the other candidates in the main debate had good moments and it was important to hear them discuss their concerns and differences about the state of our defenses and US decline in the world. It's not clear that any of them gained significant ground, but nor did they lose a lot of it. It was important for Jeb Bush to seem more engaged and energetic, and he was.
In the end, how much importance will the debate have? The Fed's decision today on interest rates will have more impact on the presidential election and the nation’s direction than the debate last night.
Republican Debate Schedule
Click the schedule to return back to the top of the page.
See also
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential election, 2016/Polls
- 2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards
- Presidential election, 2016/Straw polls
Footnotes
- ↑ CNN.com, "CNN debate: Candidate criteria for September 16, 2015," September 1, 2015
- ↑ Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
- ↑ Turner.com, "Candidate Criteria for September 16, 2015 CNN-Ronald Reagan Presidential Library Republican Presidential Primary Debate," accessed August 12, 2015
- ↑ CNN, "Nancy Reagan invites 16 candidates to CNN debate," August 11, 2015
- ↑ CNN, "Carly Fiorina will appear in top-tier CNN Reagan Library debate," September 11, 2015
