Clinton earns a win in the first debate
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Clinton earns a win in first presidential debate
September 27, 2016
By James A. Barnes
Like the 1970s television commercial on investment advice prescribed, Hillary Clinton won her first presidential debate with Donald Trump the old-fashioned way—she earned it. In the run-up to their face-off, Trump reportedly decided to eschew traditional debate prep and rely instead on his instincts and the communications skills he honed on his reality television show that boosted him to the GOP presidential nomination, defying the will of his party’s establishment and the predictions of media pundits. Clinton prepared for her encounter with Trump at Hofstra University in New York as she has for dozens of previous debates—thoroughly.
Ballotpedia surveyed more than 150 Democratic and Republican strategists, pollsters, media consultants, activists, lobbyists, and allied interest group operatives, after the conclusion of the September 26 debate and found that an overwhelming majority of Democratic Insiders and a plurality of Republicans thought the former secretary of state emerged as the victor in her showdown with Trump. Overall, almost two-thirds of the Insiders thought Clinton carried the evening.
Among the 75 Democratic Insiders who responded, an overwhelming 93 percent declared Clinton the “biggest winner” of the night. Another 5 percent called the debate a draw, and 1 percent (one Democratic Insider) said that Trump had prevailed. The 76 Republican Insiders who responded to the survey were much more divided, but a plurality of 38 percent still gave the edge to Clinton. Another 30 percent thought the debate was a draw, and 32 percent thought Trump had bested Clinton.
One persistent theme from both Democratic and Republican Insiders was that Clinton was prepared, focused, and able to control much of the debate. “She drove the conversation and came off as well prepared,” said one Democratic Insider. “HRC controlled the tempo; he was defensive,” asserted another. A Republican Insider who also thought Clinton won the evening concurred: “Hillary drove the debate, stayed comfortably on offense and didn’t get rattled by his constant interruptions.” Another Republican said that Clinton “didn’t chase, stayed focused and used the temperament issue well.”
A big factor in Clinton’s success on Monday night was her ability to bait Trump with pointed jabs that distracted him from his stronger arguments. “He could have nailed her on a number of points had he been better prepared and had not taken the bait so often,” moaned one Republican Insider. This survey was conducted anonymously to encourage candor from the Insiders.
Trump’s demeanor, which at times swung from brash to defensive, did little to assuage doubts about his temperament, although later in the debate the New York real estate mogul insisted it was a personal strength. “She looked presidential,” said one Democratic Insider. “He looked like he was in a narcissistic rage.” Another added, “Trump was exposed: defensive, ego-driven. Hillary was not perfect but stood above him most of the night.” A Republican Insider opined, “They’re both dreadfully awful, but he was borderline insane.” Another Republican described Trump’s performance as “incoherent babbling,” and a third acknowledged, “Trump has yet to put to rest temperament issues.”
While Democrats were nearly unanimous in their judgment that Clinton had vanquished Trump in the debate, some wondered how significant her victory was. “She looked good and sounded presidential, but I’m not sure it will matter overall,” averred one Democratic Insider. “Hillary can’t seem to show passion and that made it closer than it otherwise would have been,” declared another. “Trump failed on the issues of race, women, tax returns and most everything else, but the fact that she could not put him away should scare the Clinton folks.”
Indeed, a few Democrats noted that Clinton was unable to land a knockout blow on Trump. “She won on points, but didn’t knock him down once,” observed one Democratic Insider. “The best moments were when she just allowed him to rant,” said another. “She did miss a couple of opportunities to throw some knockout punches though.”
Of course, had Clinton stumbled badly in the debate, Democrats would have been in a panic. The handful of Democrats who thought the debate was a draw was more circumspect. “The pundits will say she won, but the poll numbers won’t move,” predicted one Democratic Insider. “She is so much more qualified, but he is still tapping into the anger,” cautioned another.
While Trump has raised questions about Clinton’s stamina, it was Trump who seemed to wear down as the debate wore on. “Trump started strong, but then fell off as he took the Clinton bait and he did not look or sound good for most of the last hour,” said one Republican Insider. “Trump won portions of the first half, Clinton crushed him in most of the second half,” judged another. “He was ill-prepared and she was ready.” A Democratic Insider joked, “Ninety minutes is not Trump’s friend. She showed the stamina and the solutions.”
Republicans who thought that Trump was the biggest winner of the debate offered varied reasons for his success. “Hillary was not likeable enough,” maintained one GOP Insider. “Trump got over the acceptability threshold.” Another felt that Trump benefited from being the candidate of change and put it this way: “Change versus status quo; change wins.” And a third said that the GOP nominee “Exceeded expectations and spoke in a manner normal Americans understand.”
Among Republican Insiders who thought that the debate was a draw, there was a clear sense of missed opportunities by their standard bearer. “Trump has a lot more upside, but didn’t figure out a way to realize it tonight,” said one GOP Insider. “HRC is still deeply, deeply unlikable; DJT still nutty,” said another Republican. “Trump had moments of clarity, but blew his chance to make that the overall take away.” And a third maintained if Trump “had prepared even a little he would have won huge.”
One useful thing to remember about these kinds of surveys of elite opinion, they tend to be better measures of the inside-the-Beltway zeitgeist than a forecast of the future. During the Republican presidential primary debates, Republican Insiders routinely downplayed Trump’s performance and usually called Florida Sen. Marco Rubio the “biggest winner” of those multi-candidate encounters. Ultimately, how many of these same GOP Insiders felt about debates had little bearing on the outcome of the Republican presidential nominating contest. And many of these same Democratic Insiders judged Clinton the “biggest winner,” and by a wide margin, of every one of their party’s primary season debates. They are accustomed to her turning in a solid performance.
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics.
See also
- Presidential debate at Hofstra University (September 26, 2016)
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Donald Trump presidential campaign, 2016
- Hillary Clinton presidential campaign, 2016
