Debate debrief: What to look for in Boulder
 Date: November 8, 2016 |
Winner: Donald Trump (R) Hillary Clinton (D) • Jill Stein (G) • Gary Johnson (L) • Vice presidential candidates |
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This page was current as of the 2016 election.
October 26, 2015
Donald Trump knows how to dominate a stage. In the first Republican presidential debate he boldly declared that he might not support the eventual nominee of the party. Normally, front runners for a presidential nomination avoid controversy, deflect attacks from opponents, and generally do what they can to stay above the fray. Trump readily sparred with his GOP rivals as well as the FOX news moderators.
After that debate, Trump reversed course and pledged that he would support whomever Republicans eventually nominate. But if anyone thought Trump might change his tactics in the next debate, they were mistaken. Trump opened up the second face-off on CNN with an unprovoked attack on Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul. At times in that debate, Trump seemed to recede into the background of the back-and-forth among the GOP candidates: a Ballotpedia analysis found that while he got more air time than any other candidate, and was asked the most questions by debate moderators, Trump did not try to inject himself in the discussion of social issues like gay marriage and abortion. Trump understands the popularity of his “brand” better than anyone and he’s not likely to change his combative manner in the October 28 debate at the University of Colorado in Boulder.
Ironically, the big winner of the first debate was not even on the main stage. Carly Fiorina’s performance in the so-called “undercard” debate was so strong that she got a bump in the polls and got to participate in the second prime time debate. In both events, Fiorina’s debate preparation was evident—she was very articulate and handled the questions with poise. Her rebuke to Trump over his comments about her looks was one of the few times a candidate has cleanly landed a punch on him in the first two debates. Most observers attribute Fiorina’s rise in the polls to her polished debate performances.
Given the rave reviews Hillary Clinton received last week, it is quite possible that Fiorina will take on Clinton again. In the past, she has drawn applause when she’s positioned herself as Clinton’s chief nemesis. But the other GOP candidates may not let her be the first to attack the Democratic front runner. Fiorina has slipped at bit in the polls since she did well in the first two debates and she will be under pressure to deliver another solid performance. In Boulder, expect her to be well prepared again.
At times during the first two GOP debates, Dr. Ben Carson has appeared almost disengaged. He has eschewed the cut and thrust that some of the other candidates appear to relish, and his demeanor might be charitably described as “understated.” But his humanity seemed to shine through in his closing statement in the first debate and Carson saw his standing in the polls rise afterwards. Out on the stump, or in interviews with reporters, is where he has made his more controversial statements. Perhaps the best way to describe Carson is as a reticent debater. But that does not seem to have diminished his appeal.
Jeb Bush’s two debate performances have been lacking. More was expected from the former two-term Florida governor, a seasoned pol who’s been dealing with reporters and political foes for decades. It is not a gap in substance that has bedeviled Bush, but rather, he has lacked a presence on the big stage. In the first debate standing next to Trump, this deficit was apparent: while Trump exuded confidence, Bush seemed to slump behind his podium. Commentators said Bush lacked energy and Trump picked up the charge and has needled him repeatedly with it. In the second debate Bush fared better. Standing next to Trump again, Bush demanded that the boisterous billionaire apologize to Bush’s wife for raising her Mexican heritage in tweets about Bush’s support for immigration reform. Trump brushed aside that demand.
In a second exchange, Bush fared a bit better when said he had rejected Trump’s efforts to expand casino gambling into Florida even though Trump had raised money for his 1998 campaign. Trump denied that story, but after the debate, fact-checkers largely confirmed Bush’s recollection. Still, that minor victory did little to boost Bush and he has to find a way to shape a positive defining moment in the Boulder debate if he wants to quell growing doubts about his candidacy.
Marco Rubio may have the most to gain by Bush’s shortcomings. He’s a polished debater and his confidence on the stage seems to be growing. It is worth noting that in Ballotpedia surveys of GOP political Insiders after the first two debates, Rubio was rated as having helped himself more in those two face-offs than Bush did. Rubio could become the establishment favorite if he continues to outshine Bush in the debates.
As on the Senate floor, Ted Cruz is prone to grand declarations in debates. Do not expect nuance or caveats from him in the Boulder debate. Cruz seems to be positioning himself to inherit Trump supporters if the billionaire’s campaign implodes.
Mike Huckabee has not been able to galvanize evangelicals with his debate performances and based on the first two encounters, he does not seem to have any other pitches in his debate repertoire besides conservative appeals on social issues.
John Kasich has been the optimist of the debates and that is unlikely to change. Likewise, Chris Christie is likely to reprise his role as the truth teller in Boulder. Rand Paul is likely to remain the odd man out. He cannot let himself become a punching bag for whichever of his GOP rivals decides to take on the Kentucky Senator’s unorthodox views. Many debate watchers think that when you’re on the defensive, you are losing.
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics.
See also
- Boulder, Colorado CNBC Republican debate (October 28, 2015)
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Presidential election, 2016/Polls
- 2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards
- Presidential election, 2016/Straw polls
