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Debate debrief: What to look for in Des Moines
 Date: November 8, 2016 |
Winner: Donald Trump (R) Hillary Clinton (D) • Jill Stein (G) • Gary Johnson (L) • Vice presidential candidates |
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This page was current as of the 2016 election.
November 13, 2015
Look for more friction between the Democratic presidential candidates when they gather at Drake University in Des Moines Saturday night for their second debate hosted by CBS. At the first Democratic presidential debate in Las Vegas on October 13, Hillary Clinton’s two main rivals for the party’s 2016 nomination, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley, understandably seemed more focused on introducing themselves to a national audience rather than attacking the far better known Democratic frontrunner.
But in any presidential nominating contest, those who are pursuing a frontrunner like Clinton must be able to open up and exploit policy differences with the favorite if they hope to overtake that candidate. Otherwise, people tend to just go with the candidate who looks more likely to win. In the Democratic Party taking advantage of policy differences means finding a way to appeal to its liberal base that provides a disproportionate number of volunteers and voters in the primaries and caucuses, especially in the early battlegrounds of Iowa and New Hampshire.
Clinton knows all too well how this strategy can work. In her 2008 presidential bid Clinton refused to admit that her 2002 Senate vote in favor of the use of military force in Iraq was a “mistake,” as one of her rivals for the Democratic nomination that year, former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, acknowledged his vote in favor of the war was. Clinton resisted that kind of admission declaring at one point, “There are no do-overs in life.” But her intransigence enabled Barack Obama, who had opposed the war as an Illinois state senator, to appeal to the liberal anti-war wing of the party and mobilize support for his candidacy. In Iowa, Obama capitalized on his opposition to the Iraq war and won the first-in-the-nation caucuses, igniting his march to the nomination.
In the first debate, Sanders was largely unable to take advantage of his policy differences with Clinton. Indeed, the former Secretary of State may have gotten the better of him in that game: she skewered the Vermonter on gun control, noting a 2005 vote he had cast in the Senate on a measure that included a provision providing some legal protection to arms manufacturers and gun store owners if their weapons were used in a crime. Later, Sanders was seen as letting Clinton off the hook for the political controversy over her use of a private email system when she was Secretary of State. “I think the Secretary is right, and that is, the American people are sick and tired of hearing about your damn emails,” said Sanders turning to his opponent. “Thank you, me too, me too,” chirped Clinton.
Sanders, has tried to draw contrasts with Clinton on issues like the Trans Pacific Partnership trade deal and the XL Keystone pipeline, arguing that he had been fighting both well before Clinton publicly announced her opposition to those proposals. His comments this summer that he is no “Johnny- or a Mary-come-lately to the issues,” was a not so veiled dig at Clinton’s constancy compared to the depth of his liberal convictions.
But the fact that Clinton did come out against the trade deal—in its current form—and the Keystone pipeline, enables her to co-opt Sanders’ criticism and maintain her liberal bona fides with party activists, or at least, their institutions. The League of Conservation Voters, a major environmental advocacy group that fought the pipeline for years, endorsed Clinton this week.
A more recent example of Clinton’s maneuverability on issues came in early November, when Sanders introduced a measure to remove federal sanctions on marijuana use. Clinton had previously favored allowing states to experiment with decriminalizing marijuana, but after Sanders proposed new legislation, Clinton told a town hall in South Carolina that she favored changing the federal classification of marijuana from a Schedule I drug to a Schedule II drug, which removes barriers to research and medical use of marijuana. Clinton also allied herself with efforts to end handing out prison sentences for marijuana use.
O’Malley has stepped up his criticism of both Clinton and Sanders lately. At the Fair Immigration Reform Movement forum in Las Vegas last Sunday, O’Malley accused both Clinton and Sanders of “poll-tested triangulation” when it comes to the issue, a not-so-subtle reference to Bill Clinton’s occasional practice of positioning himself apart from both Democrats and Republicans in Congress when he was president.
O’Malley has also criticized Clinton the on death penalty which he helped repeal in Maryland and she would allow for some heinous crimes. “I have a great deal of respect for her, but she's often late to many of these issues because she's of a different generation than I am,” O’Malley, 52, told CNN. Clinton is 68 and Sanders is 74. In the Des Moines debate, look for O’Malley to try to highlight the generational difference in his approach to issues and politics compared to Clinton’s and Sander’s.
Clinton remains a towering favorite to win the Democratic nomination that eluded her in 2008—an Associated Press survey of 579 of the Democratic “superdelegates,” the 700-plus Democratic elected and party officials who are automatic delegates to the 2016 convention in Philadelphia, released on Friday found that she has the support of 359, followed by Sanders, who was backed by eight, and O’Malley who was favored by two. Another 210 said they were uncommitted.
If Sanders and O’Malley are going to deny Clinton the nomination again, they are going to have to convince enough Democrats that their resolve on issues important to them is deeper than hers. And that’s going to have to start happening on Saturday night in Des Moines.
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics.
See also
- CBS Democratic debate (November 14, 2015)
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Presidential election, 2016/Polls
- 2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards
- Presidential election, 2016/Straw polls
