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Debate debrief: What to look for in Milwaukee
 Date: November 8, 2016 |
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This page was current as of the 2016 election.
November 9, 2015
It’s been less than two weeks since the last time Republican White House hopefuls squared off in Boulder, Colorado, but that’s been plenty of time to shake up the GOP nominating contest and the debate stage.
For starters, the Republican debate line-up is changing: two previous prime-time debaters, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee have been demoted to the so-called “undercard” debate of GOP candidates, because their standing in four pre-debate national polls didn’t average 2.5 percent, the threshold for participation set by Fox Business for the Milwaukee encounter which is co-hosted by The Wall Street Journal. Those two will join Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum. South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham and former New York Gov. George Pataki, who have participated in all three previous undercard debates, were kicked off that island because they didn’t register 1.0 percent in any of those four polls.
Meanwhile, Maryland neurosurgeon Ben Carson, one of the frontrunners for the GOP nomination, has become ensnarled in news reports challenging the accuracy of aspects of his life story that he chronicled in two books and has spoken of on the campaign trail. On Friday, Carson held an uncharacteristically feisty news conference where he challenged the fairness and legitimacy of those reports.
Could those controversies become fodder for the debate? Foxbusiness.com has reported both of the debates, the undercard and the main face-off, “will focus on the most important business and economic issues facing the United States including job creation, social security and taxes.” But that language doesn’t rule out the possibility that moderators could ask Carson about the recent tempest and as past encounters have shown, there’s no telling what the candidates themselves might bring up in the give and take of the debate.
Developer Donald Trump, the other GOP frontrunner in the polls, stoked questions about Cason’s life story on the Sunday morning talk shows. Trump told CNN: “It’s a lot of scrutiny and a lot of statements under fire.” He told ABC: “It’s a weird deal going on.” He told CBS: “I just don’t know what to think.” That’s not exactly a ringing defense of Carson. Trump has lashed out at his rivals in previous debates, but he might be more concerned with burnishing his business credentials in a setting where the economy is likely to be the focal point.
How much the debate moderators will tolerate personal attacks in Milwaukee is another question. During the CNBC debate in Boulder, the moderators were criticized by the candidates—and afterward by Republican National Committee Reince Priebus—for frequently prompting the debaters to attack each other. And Priebus told NBC’s Today Show on Monday, that the media has had a “crazy obsession” with Cason.
Once again, former Republican Gov. Jeb Bush will be under some pressure to turn in a good debate performance. His underwhelming showings in the three previous debates have fueled questions in the media and among Republican Party insiders about the strength of his candidacy. No longer a frontrunner, Bush can’t count on getting as many questions as some of the candidates who rank ahead of him in the polls. His campaign manager, Danny Diaz confronted a CNBC producer during the Boulder debate and complained about the lack of time his candidate was receiving. Bush will have to make the most of his moments if he wants to quell concerns about the viability of his campaign.
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz both turned in strong performances in the last debate. Rubio shined in a confrontation with Bush over his attendance record in the Senate and Cruz won kudos from many Republicans for his sharp critique of CNBC moderators for trying to goad the GOP contenders into attacking each other. At this point in the GOP race, neither has much incentive to attack the other: Cruz can focus on galvanizing more conservatives behind his banner, while Rubio, who’s earned high marks in all three of the previous debates, seems likely to maintain his posture as an articulate, next-generation candidate capable of leading all Republicans in a general election campaign against Hillary Clinton, the current frontrunner for the Democratic nomination.
Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, who register in the low single digits in national polls of Republican preferences for the 2016 nomination, round out the GOP cast of the main event. They face the challenge of making a positive impression to build momentum for their candidacies or face exclusion from the upcoming main debates if their standing in the polls declines.
The networks have come under some criticism for their use of polls in setting the line-ups of the main and undercard debates. The margin of error in these polls, which generally range from about five-to-six percentage points, means that there is little statistical validity for using them to establish hard and fast thresholds for debate participation. Statistically, there’s no real difference between a candidate who averages 2.5 percent in the polls, as Paul did in the four used by Fox Business to set the cut-off mark, and those who average 2.25 percent, as both Christie and Huckabee did. But if the networks can place such confidence in numbers like this, perhaps the Commission on Presidential Debates should select the moderators for the 2016 general election debates based on their Nielsen ratings, and not the other skills and qualities they bring to table. Or maybe they should just take a poll and see who’s the most popular? What’s good for the goose…
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics.
See also
- Milwaukee, Wisconsin Fox Business/Wall Street Journal Republican debate (November 10, 2015)
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Presidential election, 2016/Polls
- 2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards
- Presidential election, 2016/Straw polls
