Democrats in 2016: The Senate's in play too
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 Date: November 8, 2016 |
Winner: Donald Trump (R) Hillary Clinton (D) • Jill Stein (G) • Gary Johnson (L) • Vice presidential candidates |
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July 26, 2016
By Rich Cohen
Note: This is a three-part series in which Rich Cohen examines the Democratic nominee, the party, the convention, and the campaign.
Congressional Democrats understand their second-tier role in Philadelphia, as well as in the Capitol. But they brim with confidence about prospects in November—and regaining the Senate majority. As for the House, Democrats acknowledge that control is further down the road.
The long and mostly forgettable litany of Democratic convention speakers prior to the Monday evening headliners in Philadelphia included many members of Congress. About 20 Senate and House lawmakers spoke briefly to make various points, including praise for Hillary Clinton, attacks on Donald Trump, and tributes to the host city and state.
It wasn’t until the closing section of the evening’s final speech that one of them made the most vital point for many Democrats: their hopes to regain control of Congress, plus a brief description of their agenda if they succeed. The most specific prediction oddly came from Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who continues to identify himself as a socialist and an independent who is not formally a member of the Senate Democratic Conference.
The long list of Democratic priorities, he said, includes a minimum wage hike, spending on the nation’s infrastructure, confirmation of Clinton’s nominees to the Supreme Court, free tuition for most students attending public universities, actions to address climate change, steps toward universal healthcare coverage, a lower age for Medicare beneficiaries, reduced prescription drug prices, comprehensive immigration overhaul, and criminal justice reform.
“Our job now is to see that platform implemented by a Democratic Senate, a Democratic House and a Hillary Clinton presidency – and I am going to do everything I can to make that happen,” concluded Sanders, who was Clinton’s chief foe for the Democratic nomination.
He failed to note that seniority shifts would position Sanders to become chairman of the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee if Democrats take control. That would make him a key player and potential Clinton ally on minimum wage and tuition legislation, though his skills as a Senate lawmaker have had limitations.
With 46 senators on their side, Republicans face moderate to severe jeopardy in seeking to retain nearly a dozen of their own seats, according to the Cook Political Report. Democrats have favorable odds—though surely no guarantee—to regain control of the Senate, which they held for eight years until January 2015.
- See also: U.S. Senate battlegrounds, 2016
“I am confident that Democrats are going to take back the Senate,” Sen. Chris Coons of Delaware said at a Tuesday morning event sponsored by The Atlantic. “It’s not going to be simple. It’s not going to be easy.” He added that the competitive presidential campaign has expanded the Senate map by improving the prospects for Democrats running against GOP incumbents in Arizona, Missouri, Iowa, and North Carolina. Each Senate contest, which had been viewed as a second-tier Democratic opportunity, is “in play,” he added.
As Coons noted, the key Senate contests in November are disproportionately in presidential battleground states. That creates additional uncertainties, especially with the volatility of the Clinton-Trump campaign. He said that Clinton’s selection of Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia as her running-mate “will mobilize and engage voters…in a number of states that weren’t previously in play.”
The caution of leading Democratic challengers has been shown by the fact that most have stayed away from the convention or have kept a low profile during a limited presence. The chief Republican Senate candidates took a similar approach last week in Cleveland.
Katie McGinty, who is challenging Republican Sen. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania in a marquee contest, ran into a problem locally on Monday. Republican Sen. Rob Portman of Ohio encountered his own re-election difficulty last week when he tried to balance intra-party conflicts during his home-state convention in Cleveland. But McGinty’s wound was self-inflicted. As reported by the Philadelphia Inquirer, she called Toomey “an a—hole” at a labor union press conference to promote the minimum-wage increase. Chris Shelton, president of the Communications Workers of America, had described Trump with the same profanity at the event. McGinty apologized later in the day in a statement emailed by her spokesman. But Toomey’s campaign took the opportunity to comment on Twitter that former Philadelphia Mayor and Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell—a prominent Democrat—has called Toomey “a man of uncommon decency.”[1]
Whether the incident will have broader ramifications remained uncertain. But it was a reminder that Senate campaigns are grueling and high-stakes battles in which a seemingly minor error can prove damaging. Coons, who said that the Pennsylvania contest is “key” for Senate Democrats’ hopes, didn’t address McGinty’s comment. But he said that she will have campaign help “from a guy named [Vice President] Joe Biden,” who often refers fondly to being a Scranton native. House Democratic leaders were far less bullish during the Atlantic event at a downtown restaurant. When asked about prospects for erasing the Republicans’ 30-seat majority in November, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman Ben Ray Lujan of New Mexico didn’t directly respond. House Democrats will have “a very strong year,” he said. “I am optimistic about where we are.”
“We have a much higher hurdle than the Senate does,” said Rep. Joe Crowley of New York, who is vice-chairman of the House Democratic Caucus. With some confidence, he added, “It’s very unpredictable what Donald Trump’s impact will be.” The deepening uncertainty about the election, which has been reinforced in both Cleveland and Philadelphia, has made both parties cautious about making bold forecasts. And the likelihood of a politically divided Congress would complicate the challenges facing Clinton, if she is elected. For now, at least Sanders has been eager to describe the opportunities.
Richard E. Cohen is a senior editor at Ballotpedia and a veteran congressional reporter. Among the books that he has written, he is chief author of The 2016 Almanac of American Politics.
See also
- United States Senate elections, 2016
- Hillary Clinton presidential campaign, 2016
- Democratic National Committee
- Democratic National Convention, 2016
Footnotes
