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Election results, 2024: Congressional margin of victory analysis

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Last updated: Feb. 2, 2025

Congressional races in 2024, on average, were decided by a narrower margin of victory (MOV) than in 2022. Relative to 2022, the average MOV decreased in the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives.

An electoral margin of victory (MOV) is the difference between the share of votes cast for the winning candidate and the runner-up in a single-seat election. In a multi-seat race, the MOV is the difference between the vote share received by the bottom-placing winning candidate and the top-placing losing candidate. For example in a single-seat election, suppose Candidate A wins an election with 55% of the vote and Candidate B, the second-place finisher, wins 45% of the vote. In this case, Candidate A's MOV is 10 percentage points. Margins of victory can be used to measure electoral competitiveness, political party or candidate strength, and, indirectly, the popularity of a particular policy or set of policies.

The narrowest elections in both chambers were decided by margins under one percentage point. The narrowest U.S. Senate election in 2024 was for the open seat Michigan. Elissa Slotkin (D) defeated Mike Rogers (R) by a margin of 0.34 percentage points (48.6% to 48.3%). The narrowest U.S. House election in 2024 was for California's 13th Congressional District, where Adam Gray (D) defeated incumbent Rep. John Duarte (R) by a margin of 0.09 percentage points, or 187 votes out of more than 200,000 votes cast.

HIGHLIGHTS
  • The average MOV across 353 U.S. Senate elections was 16.9 percentage points, the second-narrowest average since we started collecting this data in 2012.
  • The average MOV across 435 U.S. House elections was 27.3 percentage points, the narrowest average since we started collecting this data in 2012.
  • Republicans had a larger average MOV than Democrats in U.S. Senate elections (14.4 percentage points versus 20.2 percentage points) and U.S. House elections (27.9 percentage points to 26.8 percentage points).
  • This page focuses on the margins of victory for all regularly scheduled congressional elections held in 2024. For more information on 2024 election results or margins of victories from previous years, see the following pages:

    Overview

    The table below shows the average margins of victory for U.S. House and Senate races since 2012. Click on an average margin in a previous year for detailed analysis of margins of victory for that year.

    Average MOV for congressional elections, 2012-2024
    Chamber 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
    U.S. Senate 20% 22.6% 22.1% 16.8% 18.1% 19.8% 16.9%
    U.S. House 31.9% 35.8% 36.6% 30.2% 28.8% 28.9% 27.3%


    The following table shows the number of elections which each party won by margins of under 5%, between 5% and 15%, and over 15% across all Congressional elections and in each chamber.

    Congressional elections by margin of victory, 2024
    Chamber and winning party Under 5% 5% to 15% Over 15%
    Democratic Party U.S. Senate 4 4 11
    Democratic Party U.S. House 22 46 138
    Democratic Party Democrats (total) 26 50 149
    Republican Party U.S. Senate 2 5 7
    Republican Party U.S. House 15 28 166
    Republican Party Republicans (total) 17 33 173

    U.S. Senate

    See also: United States Senate elections, 2024 and U.S. Senate battlegrounds, 2024

    The following table details the margins of victory in U.S. Senate elections in 2024.

    The average MOV for U.S. Senate elections was 16.9 percentage points, larger than the 19.8 percentage points average MOV in 2022. The average MOV was 20.2 percentage points for Republicans and 14.4 percentage points for Democrats.

    The narrowest MOV in any U.S. Senate election in 2024 was in Michigan, where Elissa Slotkin (D) defeated Mike Rogers (R) by a margin of 0.34 percentage points. The largest MOV was in Wyoming, where incumbent Sen. John Barrasso (D) defeated Scott Morrow (D) by a margin of 50.99 percentage points.

    List of all U.S. Senate elections

    The table below contains a complete list of U.S. Senate margins of victory in 2024.

    U.S. Senate margins of victory, 2024
    State Votes cast Winner Winner votes Runner-up Runner-up votes Margin Margin (%)
    Pennsylvania 6,968,735 Republican Party David McCormick 3,399,295 Democratic Party Bob Casey Jr. 3,384,180 15,115 0.22%
    Michigan 5,577,190 Democratic Party Elissa Slotkin 2,712,686 Republican Party Mike Rogers 2,693,680 19,006 0.34%
    Wisconsin 3,390,787 Democratic Party Tammy Baldwin 1,672,777 Republican Party Eric Hovde 1,643,996 28,781 0.85%
    Nevada 1,464,728 Democratic Party Jacky Rosen 701,105 Republican Party Sam Brown 677,046 24,059 1.64%
    Arizona 3,348,814 Democratic Party Ruben Gallego 1,676,335 Republican Party Kari Lake 1,595,761 80,574 2.41%
    Ohio 5,704,620 Republican Party Bernie Moreno 2,857,383 Democratic Party Sherrod Brown 2,650,949 206,434 3.62%
    Nebraska 938,336 Republican Party Deb Fischer 499,124 Grey.png Dan Osborn 436,493 62,631 6.67%
    Montana 607,262 Republican Party Tim Sheehy 319,682 Democratic Party Jon Tester 276,305 43,377 7.14%
    Texas 11,291,854 Republican Party Ted Cruz 5,990,741 Democratic Party Colin Allred 5,031,249 959,492 8.50%
    Virginia 4,445,535 Democratic Party Tim Kaine 2,417,115 Republican Party Hung Cao 2,019,911 397,204 8.93%
    New Jersey 4,031,795 Democratic Party Andrew Kim 2,161,491 Republican Party Curtis Bashaw 1,773,589 387,902 9.62%
    New Mexico 903,311 Democratic Party Martin Heinrich 497,333 Republican Party Nella Domenici 405,978 91,355 10.11%
    Maryland 3,021,378 Democratic Party Angela Alsobrooks 1,650,912 Republican Party Larry Hogan 1,294,344 356,568 11.80%
    Florida 10,757,428 Republican Party Rick Scott 5,977,706 Democratic Party Debbie Mucarsel-Powell 4,603,077 1,374,629 12.78%
    Missouri 2,972,559 Republican Party Josh Hawley 1,651,907 Democratic Party Lucas Kunce 1,243,728 408,179 13.73%
    Minnesota 3,189,323 Democratic Party Amy Klobuchar 1,792,441 Republican Party Royce White 1,291,712 500,729 15.70%
    Delaware 500,606 Democratic Party Lisa Blunt Rochester 283,298 Republican Party Eric Hansen 197,753 85,545 17.09%
    Maine 826,421 Grey.png Angus King 427,331 Republican Party Demi Kouzounas 284,338 142,993 17.30%
    California 15,348,846 Democratic Party Adam Schiff 9,036,252 Republican Party Steve Garvey 6,312,594 2,723,658 17.75%
    New York 8,010,317 Democratic Party Kirsten Gillibrand 4,711,298 Republican Party Mike Sapraicone 3,246,114 1,465,184 18.29%
    Washington 3,812,391 Democratic Party Maria Cantwell 2,252,577 Republican Party Raul Garcia 1,549,187 703,390 18.45%
    Connecticut 1,708,259 Democratic Party Chris Murphy 1,000,695 Republican Party Matthew Corey 678,256 322,439 18.88%
    Massachusetts 3,413,359 Democratic Party Elizabeth Warren 2,041,693 Republican Party John Deaton 1,365,445 676,248 19.81%
    Indiana 2,829,897 Republican Party Jim Banks 1,659,416 Democratic Party Valerie McCray 1,097,061 562,355 19.87%
    Rhode Island 491,948 Democratic Party Sheldon Whitehouse 294,665 Republican Party Patricia Morgan 196,039 98,626 20.05%
    Mississippi 1,215,401 Republican Party Roger Wicker 763,420 Democratic Party Ty Pinkins 451,981 311,439 25.62%
    Tennessee 3,007,608 Republican Party Marsha Blackburn 1,918,743 Democratic Party Gloria Johnson 1,027,461 891,282 29.63%
    Utah 1,472,387 Republican Party John Curtis 914,700 Democratic Party Caroline Gleich 464,515 450,185 30.58%
    Vermont 363,253 Grey.png Bernie Sanders 229,429 Republican Party Gerald Malloy 116,512 112,917 31.08%
    Hawaii 501,763 Democratic Party Mazie Hirono 324,194 Republican Party Bob McDermott 160,075 164,119 32.71%
    North Dakota 364,327 Republican Party Kevin Cramer 241,569 Democratic Party Katrina Christiansen 121,602 119,967 32.93%
    West Virginia 747,717 Republican Party Jim Justice 514,079 Democratic Party Glenn Elliott 207,548 306,531 41%
    Wyoming 264,162 Republican Party John Barrasso 198,418 Democratic Party Scott Morrow 63,727 134,691 50.99%

    U.S. House

    See also: United States House of Representatives elections, 2024 and U.S. House battlegrounds, 2024

    The following maps display U.S. House races sorted by margins of victory.

    5% or less

    5% to 15%

    15% or more


    The average MOV of in the U.S. House was 27.3 percentage points, smaller than the MOV for 2022 which was 28.9 percentage points. Broken down by the winner's party, the average MOV was 26.8 percentage points for Democrats and 27.9 percentage points for Republicans.

    The closest U.S. House race in 2024 was in California's 13th Congressional District, where Adam Gray (D) defeated incumbent Rep. John Duarte (R) by a margin of 0.09, or 187 votes out of more than 200,000 cast. The largest MOV for a U.S. House race in 2024 was in Kentucky's 4th Congressional District, where incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie (R) defeated Benjamin Middendorf (I) by 99.2 percentage points.

    List of all U.S. House elections

    The following table displays a list of all U.S. House margins of victory in 2024.

    See also

    Election coverage by office

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    Footnotes