Margin of victory analysis for the 2014 congressional elections

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Despite polling showing that 83 percent of Americans disapproved of how the 113th Congress handled its job, and 65 percent of Americans described it as the "worst Congress of their lifetime" heading into the 2014 elections, congressional races in both chambers were actually less competitive as a whole than in 2012.[1] Incumbents largely won re-election without much of a struggle in the U.S. House. Even in the U.S. Senate, where Republicans flipped nine seats, the average race was still won by a greater margin than in 2012.

Ballotpedia staff analyzed the election results in the 435 U.S. House races and 36 U.S. Senate races to determine how close the average race was. The margin of victory was then calculated as the percentage of total votes that separated the winner and the second-place finisher. On average, both the U.S. House and Senate elections were slightly less competitive than in 2012. Full results for each chamber are detailed in the following sections.

Senate

Seats won by each party based on margin of victory in 2014 United States Senate Elections
Party 0-5% points 5-10% points 10-20% points 20% points or more
Electiondot.png Democratic 2 0 7 3
Ends.png Republican 3 2 6 13
Totals 5 2 13 16

U.S. Senate races had an average margin of victory of 22.6 percent in 2014, slightly higher than the average margin in 2012 of 20 percent. On average, Democratic candidates won closer races than their Republican counterparts. The average margin for victorious Democrats was 18.7 percent, while the average margin for Republican winners was 24.7 percent. This is mainly due to the fact that Republican candidates won the vast majority of noncompetitive races. The closest Senate race in 2014 was in Virginia, where incumbent Mark Warner (D) successfully defended his seat from Ed Gillespie (R). Warner won with a margin of victory of 0.8 percent.[2] The largest margin of victory was in Alabama, where incumbent Jeff Sessions faced no opponent in either the primary or general election. Sessions took in 97.3 percent of the vote. The remaining votes went to write-in candidates.[3]

For a complete listing of U.S. Senate margins of victory, click [show] on the table below.


The five most competitive U.S. Senate races are listed below. All five of the races featured a Democratic incumbent seeking re-election.

Virginia

In Virginia's U.S. Senate race, incumbent Mark Warner (D) successfully defended against a challenge from Ed Gillespie (R). In a race that remained uncalled for several days following the general election, Warner triumphed over Gillespie by a scant 0.8 percent of the vote, or 17,7277 votes. Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis took in 2.4 percent of the vote, over three times the margin which separated Warner and Gillespie. Gillespie decided against seeking a recount and conceded to Warner on November 7, 2014.[2][4]

Throughout October, Warner held a four to 13 point lead in polling over Gillespie. Additionally, Warner held a massive fundraising advantage over the challenger. As of the FEC's October Quarterly reports, Warner led Gillespie with contributions totaling nearly double that of the challenger. Additionally, Warner held over four times as much cash on hand heading into November. The race was rated Likely Democratic by both Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball.[5][6] Despite Warner's many advantages, Virginia's U.S. Senate race ended up being the closest in the nation.

U.S. Senate, Virginia General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngMark Warner Incumbent 49.1% 1,073,667
     Republican Ed Gillespie 48.3% 1,055,940
     Libertarian Robert Sarvis 2.4% 53,102
     N/A write-in 0.1% 1,764
Total Votes 2,184,473
Source: Virginia Department of Elections

North Carolina

North Carolina's Senate race had the second closest margin of victory between winner and second place finisher. Challenger Thom Tillis (R) defeated incumbent Kay Hagan (D) by 1.6 percent of the vote, or 45,608 votes. The Libertarian candidate in the race, Sean Haugh took in over twice the number of votes which separated Hagan and Tillis with 3.7 percent of the vote.[7]

North Carolina's U.S. Senate race saw the most satellite spending of any Senate race in U.S. history. The final total was $84,517,806, over $15 million above any other U.S. Senate race in 2014. Polling showed Hagan with a slight lead over her challenger heading into November. She also had a large lead in total fundraising throughout the race. However, despite these perceived advantages, Hagan still fell to her challenger in the general election.[8]

U.S. Senate, North Carolina General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Kay Hagan Incumbent 47.3% 1,377,651
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngThom Tillis 48.8% 1,423,259
     Libertarian Sean Haugh 3.7% 109,100
     Write-in John Rhodes 0% 621
     Write-in David Waddell 0% 201
     Write-in Barry Gurney 0% 142
     Write-in Write-in (miscellaneous) 0.1% 4,307
Total Votes 2,915,281
Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections

Colorado

In Colorado's U.S. Senate race, Rep. Cory Gardner (R) successfully unseated incumbent Mark Udall (D). Gardner beat Udall by 1.9 percent of the vote, or 39,688 votes. The four third-party candidates in the race took in 5.5 percent of the vote, more than twice the margin which separated Gardner and Udall. Udall was vulnerable in 2014 due in part to the unpopularity of President Barack Obama and the Affordable Care Act.[9]

Early polling showed the incumbent with an edge in the race, but as the year moved forward Gardner closed the gap. By the end of October, most polling showed Gardner with a small advantage over Udall. Udall held a large edge in total campaign contributions over Gardner during the race. However, Gardner did lead Udall in cash on hand heading into the final months of the election. The race was rated a "toss up" by both Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball.[10][11][5][6]

U.S. Senate, Colorado General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngCory Gardner 48.2% 983,891
     Democratic Mark Udall Incumbent 46.3% 944,203
     Libertarian Gaylon Kent 2.6% 52,876
     Independent Steve Shogan 1.4% 29,472
     Independent Raul Acosta 1.2% 24,151
     Unity Party of Colorado Bill Hammons 0.3% 6,427
Total Votes 2,041,020
Source: Colorado Secretary of State

Alaska

In Alaska's U.S. Senate race, former Alaska Commissioner of Natural Resources Dan Sullivan (R) beat incumbent Mark Begich (D). The margin of victory in the race was 2.1 percent, which amounted to only 6,014 votes. This was another race in which third party candidates took in more of the vote than separated the major party candidates. Libertarian Mark Fish and Independent Ted Gianoutsos took in a combined 5.7 percent of the vote.[12] Begich was vulnerable in 2014 mainly due to the unpopularity of President Barack Obama and the Affordable Care Act. Begich himself believed he lost the race due to voters' disapproval of Obama, not due to his own record.[13]

Polling in the months leading up to November largely showed Sullivan with a lead in the race. However, Begich did hold a slight fundraising edge over Sullivan throughout the race. Begich's seat was well-known as one of the most vulnerable U.S. Senate seats in the country. The race was rated a "toss up" by both Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball.[5][6]

U.S. Senate, Alaska General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngDan Sullivan 48% 135,445
     Democratic Mark Begich Incumbent 45.8% 129,431
     Libertarian Mark Fish 3.7% 10,512
     Independent Ted Gianoutsos 2% 5,636
     N/A Write-in 0.5% 1,376
Total Votes 282,400
Source: Alaska Secretary of State

New Hampshire

In New Hampshire's U.S. Senate race, incumbent Jeanne Shaheen (D) defeated challenger Scott Brown (R) in a close general election race. Shaheen received 3.3 percent more of the vote, or 15,837 votes.[14]

Most polling showed the incumbent with an advantage in the race, but a few October polls showed Brown tied or surpassing Shaheen. Shaheen also held a significant fundraising advantage over Brown throughout the race. She raised a total of roughly $13 million to Brown's $7 million in the election cycle. Cook Political Report rated the race as "Lean D" while Sabato's Crystal Ball called it "Likely D."[5][6]

U.S. Senate, New Hampshire General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngJeanne Shaheen Incumbent 51.5% 251,184
     Republican Scott Brown 48.2% 235,347
     N/A Scatter 0.3% 1,628
Total Votes 488,159
Source: New Hampshire Secretary of State

House

Seats won by each party based on margin of victory in 2014 United States House of Representatives Elections
Party 0-5% points 5-10% points 10-20% points 20% points or more
Electiondot.png Democratic 15 15 32 126
Ends.png Republican 11 8 36 192
Totals 26 23 68 318

U.S. House races were considerably less competitive than Senate races. The average margin of victory was 35.8 percent in 2014, slightly higher than the average margin in 2012 of 31.8 percent. The political party of the winner did not have a significant impact on the average margin of victory. Democratic winners had an average margin of 36.9 percent, which differed minimally from their Republican counterparts, who had an average margin of victory of 35 percent. The closest House race in 2014 was in Arizona's 2nd Congressional District, where incumbent Ron Barber (D) was ousted by Martha McSally (R). McSally won the race with a margin of victory of 0.1 percent, which only amounted to 161 votes.[15]

For a complete listing of U.S. House margins of victory, click [show] on the table below.


The ten most competitive U.S. House races of 2014 are listed below. Seven of the ten featured a Democratic incumbent narrowly winning re-election, two featured a Democratic incumbent who lost and one featured a Republican incumbent who lost re-election.

Arizona's 2nd

The country's most competitive U.S. House race remained uncalled for over six weeks following the general election. Republican challenger Martha McSally was crowned the victor after a mandatory recount took place following the official canvass and certification of votes on December 1. A mere 0.1 percent, or 161 votes, separated the two candidates.[15][16] Barber also filed a lawsuit asking a judge to force two counties to count 133 provisional ballots that were previously rejected. His campaign argued that the ballots were wrongly disqualified. However, his request was denied by a Tucson federal judge.[17][18]

The race between Barber and McSally was a rematch of their 2012 bout, in which Barber beat McSally by under 1 percent of the vote. Arizona's 2nd District was one of a very few number of races in which the challenger raised more money than the incumbent. The race was rated a "Toss up" by both Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball.[19][20]

U.S. House, Arizona District 2 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngMartha McSally 50% 109,704
     Democratic Ron Barber Incumbent 49.9% 109,543
     Write-in Sampson U. Ramirez 0% 56
     Write-in Sydney Dudikoff 0% 48
Total Votes 219,351
Source: Arizona Secretary of State

New York's 25th

In New York's 25th Congressional District, incumbent Louise Slaughter (D) narrowly won re-election over Mark Assini (R). Slaughter defeated Assini by 0.5 percent of the vote, or 871 votes. Assini did not concede to Slaughter until eight days after the election.[21] With all precincts reporting, but before all absentee and affidavit ballots were counted, Slaughter had 93,053 votes to Assini's 92,471. According to two County Board of Elections commissioners, there were still around 2,000 affidavit ballots and 1,300 absentee ballots left to be counted, leaving a slim possibility that Assini could have caught up. Assini said that he would not concede until all votes had been accounted for, stating, "In all fairness to the voters, you should let the votes be counted."[22] After many of the additional ballots were counted on November 12, Slaughter had pulled ahead slightly, 96,800 to 95,931, and Assini called Slaughter to congratulate her on her victory.[21]

This incredibly close nature of the race was unexpected in a district that was rated a "Safe Democratic" district by both Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball.[19][20]

U.S. House, New York District 25 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngLouise Slaughter Incumbent 50.2% 96,803
     Republican Mark Assini 49.7% 95,932
     N/A Write-in votes 0.1% 236
Total Votes 192,971
Source: New York State Board of Elections, NYS Board of Elections Rep. in Congress Election Returns November 4, 2014," accessed August 30, 2021

California's 7th

In California's 7th Congressional District, incumbent Ami Bera (D) won re-election, beating Doug Ose (R) in the general election. Bera defeated Ose by 0.8 percent of the vote, or 1,455 votes.[23] The race remained uncalled for over two weeks following the general election.[24]

With a total price tag of $20,721,764, the race for California's 7th Congressional District seat was the most expensive House race of the 2014 election cycle. Roughly two-thirds of the total spending in the race came from outside sources, the biggest being the DCCC and NRCC.[25] The race was rated a "Toss up" by Cook Political Report and rated "Leans D" by Sabato's Crystal Ball.[19][20]

U.S. House, California District 7 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngAmi Bera Incumbent 50.4% 92,521
     Republican Doug Ose 49.6% 91,066
Total Votes 183,587
Source: California Secretary of State

Florida's 2nd

In Florida's 2nd Congressional District, Gwen Graham (D) defeated incumbent Steve Southerland (R) in the general election. Graham triumphed by 1.2 percent of the vote, or 2,834 votes.[26] House Majority PAC, a Democratic super PAC, listed Southerland as one of their top 10 targets in 2014.[27]

With a total price tag of $14,314,722, the race for Florida's 2nd Congressional District seat was the tenth most expensive House race of the 2014 election cycle. Graham maintained a slight edge in total contributions over the incumbent heading into November.[25] Polling showed that the race could go to either candidate. The race was rated a "Toss up" by Cook Political Report and rated "Lean R" by Sabato's Crystal Ball.[19][20]

U.S. House, Florida District 2 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngGwen Graham 50.5% 126,096
     Republican Steve Southerland Incumbent 49.3% 123,262
     Write-in Luther Lee 0.2% 422
Total Votes 249,780
Source: Florida Division of Elections

California's 16th

In California's 16th Congressional District, incumbent Jim Costa (D) held onto his seat, defeating Johnny Tacherra (R) in the general election. Costa won by a margin of 1.4 percent, or 1,334 votes. The race between Costa and Tacherra remained uncalled for over two weeks following the election.[23]

California's 16th Congressional District was expected to be another easy hold for the Democratic incumbent. However, the race turned out to be much closer than anticipated, despite Costa's massive fundraising edge. The race was rated "Likely D" by Cook Political Report and rated "Safe D" by Sabato's Crystal Ball.[19][20]

U.S. House, California District 16 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngJim Costa Incumbent 50.7% 46,277
     Republican Johnny Tacherra 49.3% 44,943
Total Votes 91,220
Source: California Secretary of State

Minnesota's 8th

In Minnesota's 8th Congressional District, incumbent Rick Nolan (D) defeated challenger Stewart Mills (R) in the general election. Nolan won by a margin of 1.4 percent, or 3,732 votes. Skip Sandman, the Green Party candidate in the race, took in 4.3 percent of the vote, over three times the margin that separated Nolan and Mills.[28]

Minnesota's 8th Congressional District was the sixth most expensive U.S. House race in 2014. A total of $15,927,832 was spent in the election. Of that amount, nearly 80 percent came from satellite spending.[25] The race was rated a "Toss Up" by both Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball.[19][20]

U.S. House, Minnesota District 8 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngRick Nolan Incumbent 48.5% 129,090
     Republican Stewart Mills 47.1% 125,358
     Green Skip Sandman 4.3% 11,450
     N/A Write-in 0.1% 185
Total Votes 266,083
Source: Minnesota Secretary of State

Maryland's 6th

In Maryland's 6th Congressional District, incumbent John Delaney (D) successfully defended against a challenge from Dan Bongino (R). Delaney beat Bongino by 1.5 percent of the vote, or 2,774 votes.[29]

Maryland's 6th Congressional District was another race that was not expected to be competitive at all, but in which the Democratic incumbent barely held onto his seat. Both Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rated the seat as "Safely Democratic". Delaney held a substantial fundraising edge throughout the race as well.[19][20]

U.S. House, Maryland District 6 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Delaney Incumbent 49.7% 94,704
     Republican Dan Bongino 48.2% 91,930
     Green George Gluck 2% 3,762
     Write-in Others 0.1% 140
Total Votes 190,536
Source: Maryland Secretary of State Official Results

New York's 18th

In New York's 18th Congressional District, incumbent Sean Maloney (D) defeated Nan Hayworth (R) to retain control of his seat. Maloney won by a margin of 1.8 percent, or 3,333 votes. Third-party candidate Scott Smith took in 2.3 percent of the general election vote.[30] The race between Maloney and Hayworth was a rematch of their 2012 bout, in which Maloney unseated then-incumbent Hayworth.

New York's 18th Congressional District was a battleground in 2014. Maloney held an advantage in both polling and fundraising heading into the general election. The race was rated "Lean D" by Cook Political Report and rated "Likely D" by Sabato's Crystal Ball.[19][20]

U.S. House, New York District 18 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngSean Maloney Incumbent 49.7% 88,993
     Republican Nan Hayworth 47.8% 85,660
     Send Mr. Smith Scott Smith 2.4% 4,294
     N/A Write-in votes 0.1% 144
Total Votes 179,091
Source: New York State Board of Elections, NYS Board of Elections Rep. in Congress Election Returns November 4, 2014," accessed August 30, 2021

Texas' 23rd

In Texas' 23rd Congressional District, Will Hurd (R) unseated incumbent Pete Gallego (D) in the general election. Gallego won by a margin of 2.1 percent, or 2,422 votes. Libertarian candidate Ruben Corvalan took in 2.5 percent of the general election vote.[31]

Texas' 23rd Congressional District was a battleground district that leaned Democratic in 2014. Incumbent Gallego led Hurd in fundraising totals throughout the election cycle. The race was rated "Lean D" by both Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball.[19][20]

U.S. House, Texas District 23 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngWill Hurd 49.8% 57,459
     Democratic Pete Gallego Incumbent 47.7% 55,037
     Libertarian Ruben Corvalan 2.5% 2,933
Total Votes 115,429
Source: Texas Secretary of State

Iowa's 1st

In Iowa's 1st Congressional District, Republican Rod Blum defeated state Rep. Patrick Murphy. Blum won by a margin of 2.3 percent, or 6,617 votes.[32]

The seat was left open and vulnerable following former Rep. Bruce Braley's decision to run for U.S. Senate. The race was rated "Likely D" by both Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball.[19][20]

U.S. House, Iowa District 1 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Pat Murphy 48.8% 141,145
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngRod Blum 51.1% 147,762
     Write-in Other 0.1% 399
Total Votes 289,306
Source: Iowa Secretary of State Official Results

See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ CNN, "CNN/ORC poll: Most think Congress is worst in their lifetime," September 10, 2014
  2. ↑ 2.0 2.1 Virginia Department of Elections, "November 4, 2014-General-Election Results," accessed January 15, 2015
  3. ↑ Alabama Secretary of State, "Canvass of Results General Election," November 4, 2014
  4. ↑ Washington Post, "Republican Ed Gillespie concedes Va. Senate race," accessed November 7, 2014
  5. ↑ 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2014 Senate," accessed September 15, 2014
  6. ↑ 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 The Cook Political Report, "2014 Senate Race Ratings for September 5, 2014," accessed September 15, 2014
  7. ↑ North Carolina State Board of Elections, "11/04/2014 OFFICIAL GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS - STATEWIDE," accessed January 15, 2015
  8. ↑ OpenSecrets, "2014 Outside Spending, by Race," accessed November 26, 2014
  9. ↑ Colorado Secretary of State, "OFFICIAL RESULTS NOVEMBER 4, 2014 GENERAL ELECTION," accessed January 15, 2015
  10. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Mark Udall July Quarterly," accessed July 24, 2014
  11. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Cory Gardner July Quarterly," accessed July 23, 2014
  12. ↑ Alaska Secretary of State, "2014 GENERAL ELECTION November 4, 2014 Official Results," accessed January 15, 2015
  13. ↑ Alaska Dispatch News, "Begich says Obama discontent, not Active ad, cost him Senate seat," November 22, 2014
  14. ↑ New Hampshire Secretary of State, "United States Senator - 2014 General Election," accessed January 15, 2015
  15. ↑ 15.0 15.1 Arizona Secretary of State, "STATE OF ARIZONA OFFICIAL CANVASS," accessed January 15, 2015
  16. ↑ Tucson.com, "CD2 recount could take 2 weeks," November 29, 2014
  17. ↑ The Hill, "Barber campaign files federal lawsuit ahead of recount," November 24, 2014
  18. ↑ AZcentral, "Recount set to begin in Barber-McSally race," December 1, 2014
  19. ↑ 19.0 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 19.5 19.6 19.7 19.8 19.9 Cook Political Report, "2014 House Race Ratings for October 3, 2014," accessed October 16, 2014
  20. ↑ 20.0 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 20.5 20.6 20.7 20.8 20.9 Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2014 House Races," accessed October 16, 2014
  21. ↑ 21.0 21.1 Time Warner Cable News, "Mark Assini Concedes to Rep. Louise Slaughter in 25th Congressional Race," accessed November 13, 2014
  22. ↑ Democrat & Chronicle, "Deciding Assini-Slaughter winner could take a while," accessed November 6, 2014
  23. ↑ 23.0 23.1 California Secretary of State, "Statement of Vote November 4, 2014, General Election," accessed January 15, 2015
  24. ↑ California Secretary of State, "U.S. House of Representatives Results of All Districts," accessed November 19, 2014
  25. ↑ 25.0 25.1 25.2 OpenSecrets.org, "Most Expensive Races," accessed October 31, 2014
  26. ↑ Florida Division of Elections, "November 4, 2014 General Election," accessed January 15, 2015
  27. ↑ Sunshine State News "Democratic Super PAC Targets Steve Southerland" accessed March 8, 2013
  28. ↑ Minnesota Secretary of State, "Tuesday, November 4, 2014," accessed January 15, 2015
  29. ↑ Maryland State Board of Elections, "Official 2014 Gubernatorial General Election results for Representative in Congress," accessed January 15, 2015
  30. ↑ New York Board of Elections, "Rep. in Congress Election Returns November 4, 2014," accessed January 15, 2015
  31. ↑ Texas Secretary of State, "November 4, 2014, Elections Results," accessed January 15, 2015
  32. ↑ Iowa Secretary of State, "November 4, 2014 General Election," accessed January 15, 2015


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