Insiders Poll: Who won the Eighth Democratic debate?
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Under fire, Clinton holds her own in Miami
March 10, 2016
By James A. Barnes
With less than a week to go before the five-state primary and delegate bonanza on March 15, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders squared off in Miami for a contentious debate hosted by Univision and The Washington Post. In a survey of more than 80 Democratic and Republican political insiders, a solid plurality of the Democrats, 45 percent, said Clinton was the “biggest winner” of the debate.
Among the 52 Democratic Insiders—party strategists, pollsters, media consultants, activists, lobbyists and allied interest group operatives—who responded to the survey, several said Clinton held up well under a barrage of questions that one way or another cut to her character. Some also felt that while the debate moderators pressed both candidates, she got the tougher scrutiny.
“Benghazi, indictments, trust—she certainly didn’t catch many breaks tonight,” observed one Democratic Insider. “And yet, she held her own which is what candidates with big delegate leads need to do.” Another noted, “Hispanic voters really won: the moderators do a great job holding the candidates’ feet to the fire.”
While Clinton may have been judged the biggest winner, her dominance in these encounters appears to be waning. In a similar survey after the Democratic presidential debate in Milwaukee hosted by PBS a month ago, a solid majority of Democratic Insiders awarded Clinton the “biggest winner” honors.
“Bernie didn’t capitalize on the Michi-mentum,” maintained one Democratic Insider. “Hillary showed mastery of subject matter and poise under pressure.” Another added, “Despite his rote delivery—and appeal—Hillary is on her way to the nomination, and it shows.” A third Democratic Insider who also voted Clinton the debate’s winner said she was “measured and in control.”
At the same time, Democratic Insiders seem to feel Sanders has found his footing in these encounters. “His best debate yet,” declared one Democratic influential. “He’s scoring more now, but he’s got a big mountain to climb,” added another. “Clinton picked weak assertions early on that did not ring true like suggesting Sanders enabled the Minutemen,” said one Democratic Insider who gave the debate nod to Sanders. “Hard to believe, even if somehow true. She got stronger by the end, but took to long to gain her stride.”
But more Democratic Insiders felt the Univision-Post debate was a draw. “Bernie is getting better at this, but Clinton came prepared, and she is in a commanding place in the primary, something that remains exactly the same as it was before the debate started,” noted one Democratic Insider. “She held her own, but she has to start delivering knock out blows and she is far from that,” averred another Democrat. But a third, who didn’t care for the debate’s tone countered that it was “ugly and unproductive though Bernie didn’t get the knock out he needed to win.”
And there may be some debate fatigue setting in among the party elites, a group that naturally gravitates more towards Clinton than the insurgent Sanders. “Do we really need these things to go on for two hours?” asked one Democratic Insider.
Republican Insiders saw the debate a differently from their Democratic counterparts, but few were watching with their own debate up tonight. Among the 24 who responded to this survey, a plurality, 46 percent, thought Sanders was the biggest winner. (Another 29 percent said the debate was a draw and 25 percent thought Clinton won.) “Sanders was more confident, aggressive and pointed then in previous debates,” explained one Republican. “Clinton missed a chance to end the race in Michigan. Now Sanders thinks he might win and he is acting like.” Another GOP Insider simply said, “Michigan momentum.”
And judging the debate a draw, one Republican, perhaps speaking for many, said, “At this point all minds are made up.”
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics. He has conducted elite opinion surveys for National Journal, CNN and the on-line polling firm, YouGov. This Insiders survey was conducted February 25-26.
See also
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Houston CNN/Telemundo Republican Debate (February 25, 2016)
- Presidential election, 2016/Polls
- 2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards
- Presidential election, 2016/Straw polls
