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Insiders Poll: Who won the Ninth Republican debate
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Ballotpedia's scope changes periodically, and this article type is no longer actively created or maintained. If you would like to help our coverage grow, consider donating to Ballotpedia.
It was the establishment’s night, but what about this Saturday?
February 15, 2016
By James A. Barnes
When the six remaining Republican White House hopefuls gathered in Greenville, South Carolina for their ninth presidential debate on February 13, it was a night for the party establishment’s favorites: Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Ohio Gov. John Kasich, to all score points in a Ballotpedia survey of Republican Insiders who judged the encounter.
Whether this Saturday night is equally rewarding when the returns from the Palmetto State’s GOP presidential primary roll in is less likely. Both Rubio and Bush delivered particularly strong performances in the debate, but the candidate who finishes worse in the balloting will face the challenge of sustaining support for his candidacy. The party establishment will be looking to coalesce behind a single candidate after South Carolina in order the head off the nomination of either billionaire developer-celebrity Donald Trump or Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. Trump and Cruz have demonstrated their viability with Republican voters having won the New Hampshire primary and the Iowa Caucuses, respectively. Neither Bush nor Rubio is expected to carry South Carolina, but both probably need that third-place finish in order to sustain fundraising and generate political momentum heading into the March 1 primary bonanza that features contests in seven Southern and border states, Massachusetts, Vermont as well as caucuses in Alaska, Colorado, Minnesota, North Dakota and Wyoming.
The Greenville debate hosted by CBS was an important step towards that third-place ribbon for both men: Rubio bounced back from his worst debate performance of the campaign a week earlier in Manchester, New Hampshire. And for Bush, he showed a passion and presence on the stage that he has all-to-often lacked in previous encounters.
Ballotpedia surveyed more than 130 Republican and Democratic strategists, pollsters, media consultants, activists, lobbyists and allied interest groups operatives and a nearly half of the 89 GOP Insiders Republicans who responded said Rubio was the “biggest winner” of the debate. Another third deemed that Bush was the “biggest winner.” At the same time, only four percent thought Cruz had a good night and two percent deemed Trump’s performance prize-worthy. About one-in-eight of the GOP Insiders thought Kasich won the night. And once again, retired neurological surgeon Ben Carson’s performance barely registered with Republican elites. (This survey was conducted anonymously to encourage candor from Insiders.)
For Rubio’s fans, it was a reassuring performance delivered at a critical moment. “All the pressure was on Rubio after New Hampshire and he came through with flying colors,” said one Republican Insider. “Needed to recover and then exceed expectations and he accomplished that with thoughtful answers, strong responses and a sunny disposition,” echoed another. “Rebound was necessary and this was a hell of a rebound,” judged a third.
And for once, Bush clearly seemed to get the better of his nemesis Trump, whose attacks on former president George W. Bush over his prosecution of the Iraq War and failure to anticipate 9-11 drew a cascade of booing from the audience. “Jeb commanded, and made Trump so angry the red showed through his orange makeup,” said a GOP Insider who awarded the evening to Bush. “Trump’s antics finally gave Bush a win,” maintained another. “Don’t go after W in a state where he’s still wildly popular.”
Trump dismissed the negative reactions from the crowd, which he also provoked with other jabs on Bush’s family. “I know so many of the people in the audience,” said Trump, implying that the chorus of boos was coming from Bush’s financial backers. “And by the way, I'm a self-funder.”
But this exchange only seemed to raise the stakes of Bush’s older brother’s presence at a February 15 South Carolina rally, the first time this year he was scheduled to headline a non-fundraising campaign event for his brother. Bush defended his brother in the debate and is hoping the former president’s popularity in the state will give his campaign a boost. But if that tactic doesn’t help propel Bush to a strong showing, it could be a final signal to the party establishment that the Republican rank-and-file are simply not prepared to embrace a third Bush as their 2016 standard bearer.
Kasich’s fans felt he had a good night because he largely avoided the sharp bickering between Trump, Bush, Cruz and Rubio. “Kasich avoided the demolition derby which will help him with independents and mainstream R’s,” observed one GOP Insider. “He needs to win this group.” Another said, “With millions giving him a first or second look, he had his best debate yet while sticking to his positive message.” But the Ohio governor is not expected to do well in South Carolina and he pointing his campaign towards the March 8 Michigan primary.
Reflecting the Republican Establishment’s dilemma in picking a horse to ride, one GOP Insider who thought Rubio won the evening said, “Trump showed why he should never be President. Cruz showed why he never will be president. As for Carson, really? Any of the other three, any of them would beat [Hillary] Clinton or [Bernie] Sanders.” Another Insider who favored Bush assessed the debate this way: “Close call between Jeb and Marco, who also rebounded strongly from his disastrous exchange with Christie in the last debate. But Jeb was at the top of his game, even getting the best of Trump.”
And while many have heaped scorn on Bush in the past, a narrow plurality of the 51 Democratic Insiders who participated in the survey awarded the debate to him. “His strong defense of his brother was a refreshing breath of truthfulness,” said one Democratic Insider. “He fought back and did not allow Trump to pound him again,” echoed another. And a third noted, “He’s definitely getting better at these debates, and he is being increasingly proactive about going after Trump. I also think he is a definite beneficiary of a smaller debate field, in that he is arguably the most substantial candidate.”
But Democratic Insiders also had positive words for Trump and Kasich. Of the combative billionaire, one Democrat observed, “Republican hierarchy may not like his attacks from last night, especially his blunt assessment of George W. Bush’s foreign policy, but a lot of Republican voters and a lot of the American people increasingly find his rhetoric refreshingly candid.” Another maintained, “Kasich was the only adult in the room;” a sentiment that was repeated by other Democrats.
Among Republican Insiders, another sign of the close call between Rubio and Bush came in their assessment of whether the candidates were helped or hurt by the debate: Just over three-fourths said Bush had been helped and just under three-fourths said Rubio had been aided. Just eight percent said Rubio had been hurt and only six percent said Bush’s candidacy had been harmed.
That was not the case with Trump who four-out-of-five of the Republican Insiders said was damaged last Saturday night. “Trump was completely unhinged most of the debate,” asserted one GOP influential. “Not only did he not attract any new support, he gave pause to some who were leaning to him.” Another said the Greenville face-off was “Trump’s first truly bad debate. He is reinforcing his ceiling and now providing reason to leave him.” A third added, “South Carolinians don’t like anyone accusing a GOP President of murdering 2,300 Americans.”
Trump held a comfortable lead in South Carolina polls conducted before the debate and it remains to be seen whether the combative performance by the former reality TV star takes a toll on him in the primary. As one GOP Insider acknowledged, “I cringe when Trump is speaking, but no matter what he says, his followers stand strong.”
That is indeed what troubles the GOP Establishment about the primaries to come.
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics. He has conducted elite opinion surveys for National Journal, CNN and the on-line polling firm, YouGov.
See also
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Durham, N.H., MSNBC Democratic debate (February 4, 2016)
- Presidential election, 2016/Polls
- 2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards
- Presidential election, 2016/Straw polls
