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Minnesota's 5th Congressional District election, 2020

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Minnesota's 5th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: June 2, 2020
Primary: August 11, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Ilhan Omar (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in Minnesota
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Minnesota's 5th Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th
Minnesota elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 5th Congressional District of Minnesota, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Ilhan Omar won election in the general election for U.S. House Minnesota District 5.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
June 2, 2020
August 11, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Democrat Ilhan Omar, who was first elected in 2018.


Omar won the Democratic primary against four other candidates with 57% of the vote. Lacy Johnson won the Republican primary with 77% of the vote against two other candidates.

Minnesota's 5th Congressional District includes portions of Anoka, Hennepin and Ramsey counties.[1]

Democratic Party For more information on the Democratic primary, click here.
Republican Party For more information on the Republican primary, click here.

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Minnesota's 5th Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 80.3 64.3
Republican candidate Republican Party 17.7 25.8
Difference 62.6 38.5

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Minnesota modified its absentee/mail-in voting and candidate filing procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: The absentee/mail-in ballot postmark deadline was extended to November 3, 2020; the receipt deadline was extended to November 10, 2020. The witness requirement for absentee/mail-in ballots was suspended.
  • Candidate filing procedures: General election candidates were allowed to submit filing forms and petitions electronically.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

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Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Minnesota District 5

Incumbent Ilhan Omar defeated Lacy Johnson, Mickey Moore, Toya Woodland, and Ervan Katari Miller in the general election for U.S. House Minnesota District 5 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Ilhan Omar
Ilhan Omar (D)
 
64.3
 
255,924
Image of Lacy Johnson
Lacy Johnson (R) Candidate Connection
 
25.8
 
102,878
Image of Mickey Moore
Mickey Moore (Legal Marijuana Now Party) Candidate Connection
 
9.5
 
37,979
Image of Toya Woodland
Toya Woodland (G) (Write-in) Candidate Connection
 
0.0
 
34
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Ervan Katari Miller (Independent) (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
0
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.4
 
1,448

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 398,263
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Minnesota District 5

Incumbent Ilhan Omar defeated Antone Melton-Meaux, John Mason, Daniel Patrick McCarthy, and Les Lester in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Minnesota District 5 on August 11, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Ilhan Omar
Ilhan Omar
 
58.2
 
103,535
Image of Antone Melton-Meaux
Antone Melton-Meaux
 
38.5
 
68,524
Image of John Mason
John Mason Candidate Connection
 
1.5
 
2,721
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Daniel Patrick McCarthy
 
1.1
 
1,901
Image of Les Lester
Les Lester Candidate Connection
 
0.7
 
1,267

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 177,948
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Minnesota District 5

Lacy Johnson defeated Danielle Stella and Dalia al-Aqidi in the Republican primary for U.S. House Minnesota District 5 on August 11, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Lacy Johnson
Lacy Johnson Candidate Connection
 
76.6
 
9,188
Image of Danielle Stella
Danielle Stella
 
18.6
 
2,236
Image of Dalia al-Aqidi
Dalia al-Aqidi Candidate Connection
 
4.7
 
568

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 11,992
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Legal Marijuana Now Party primary election

Legal Marijuana Now Party primary for U.S. House Minnesota District 5

Mickey Moore advanced from the Legal Marijuana Now Party primary for U.S. House Minnesota District 5 on August 11, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Mickey Moore
Mickey Moore Candidate Connection
 
100.0
 
940

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 940
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Nineteen of 87 Minnesota counties—21.8 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Beltrami County, Minnesota 9.72% 9.89% 10.15%
Blue Earth County, Minnesota 3.69% 9.48% 12.95%
Chippewa County, Minnesota 28.70% 1.87% 5.87%
Clay County, Minnesota 1.95% 7.92% 16.02%
Fillmore County, Minnesota 21.70% 7.34% 8.26%
Freeborn County, Minnesota 17.24% 14.11% 17.13%
Houston County, Minnesota 13.87% 3.16% 10.69%
Itasca County, Minnesota 16.35% 9.83% 12.92%
Kittson County, Minnesota 22.05% 6.03% 18.54%
Koochiching County, Minnesota 19.85% 9.45% 10.10%
Lac qui Parle County, Minnesota 25.60% 0.90% 5.92%
Mahnomen County, Minnesota 2.92% 18.56% 25.31%
Mower County, Minnesota 7.82% 22.61% 23.61%
Nicollet County, Minnesota 3.04% 7.83% 10.52%
Norman County, Minnesota 13.34% 10.79% 26.94%
Rice County, Minnesota 3.06% 8.27% 11.50%
Swift County, Minnesota 25.57% 9.83% 13.79%
Traverse County, Minnesota 23.30% 4.44% 5.41%
Winona County, Minnesota 2.90% 12.85% 19.09%

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Minnesota with 46.4 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 44.9 percent. In presidential elections between 1860 and 2016, Minnesota voted Republican 50 percent of the time and Democratic 47.5 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Minnesota voted Democratic all five times.[2]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Minnesota. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[3][4]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 68 out of 134 state House districts in Minnesota with an average margin of victory of 27.6 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 62 out of 134 state House districts in Minnesota with an average margin of victory of 30.4 points. Clinton won 12 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 66 out of 134 state House districts in Minnesota with an average margin of victory of 12.3 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 72 out of 134 state House districts in Minnesota with an average margin of victory of 23.8 points. Trump won seven districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+26, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 26 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made Minnesota's 5th Congressional District the 39th most Democratic nationally.[5]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.91. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.91 points toward that party.[6]

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[7]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[8][9][10]

Race ratings: Minnesota's 5th Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 5th Congressional District candidates in Minnesota in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Minnesota, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
Minnesota 5th Congressional District Major party 0 N/A $300.00 Fixed number 6/2/2020 Source
Minnesota 5th Congressional District Unaffiliated 1,000 Fixed number N/A N/A 6/2/2020 Source

District election history

2018

See also: Minnesota's 5th Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Minnesota District 5

Ilhan Omar defeated Jennifer Zielinski in the general election for U.S. House Minnesota District 5 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Ilhan Omar
Ilhan Omar (D)
 
78.0
 
267,703
Image of Jennifer Zielinski
Jennifer Zielinski (R)
 
21.7
 
74,440
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.4
 
1,215

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 343,358
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Minnesota District 5

The following candidates ran in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Minnesota District 5 on August 14, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Ilhan Omar
Ilhan Omar
 
48.2
 
65,237
Image of Margaret Kelliher
Margaret Kelliher
 
30.4
 
41,156
Image of Patricia Torres Ray
Patricia Torres Ray
 
13.0
 
17,629
Image of Jamal Abdulahi
Jamal Abdulahi
 
3.7
 
4,984
Image of Bobby Joe Champion
Bobby Joe Champion
 
2.8
 
3,831
Image of Frank Nelson Drake
Frank Nelson Drake Candidate Connection
 
1.8
 
2,480

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 135,317
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Minnesota District 5

Jennifer Zielinski defeated Christopher Chamberlin and Bob Carney Jr. in the Republican primary for U.S. House Minnesota District 5 on August 14, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Jennifer Zielinski
Jennifer Zielinski
 
56.5
 
8,680
Image of Christopher Chamberlin
Christopher Chamberlin
 
32.5
 
4,999
Image of Bob Carney Jr.
Bob Carney Jr.
 
11.0
 
1,688

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 15,367
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2016

See also: Minnesota's 5th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Democratic. Incumbent Keith Ellison (D) defeated Frank Nelson Drake (R) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Ellison defeated Lee Bauer and Gregg Iverson in the Democratic primary on August 9, 2016.[11][12]

U.S. House, Minnesota District 5 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngKeith Ellison Incumbent 69.1% 249,964
     Republican Frank Drake 22.3% 80,660
     Legal Marijuana Now Dennis Schuller 8.5% 30,759
     N/A Write-in 0.1% 499
Total Votes 361,882
Source: Minnesota Secretary of State


U.S. House, Minnesota District 5 Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngKeith Ellison Incumbent 91.7% 40,380
Gregg Iverson 4.3% 1,887
Lee Bauer 4% 1,757
Total Votes 44,024
Source: Minnesota Secretary of State

2014

See also: Minnesota's 5th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 5th Congressional District of Minnesota held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Keith Ellison (D) defeated Doug Daggett (R) and Lee Bauer (IND) in the general election.

U.S. House, Minnesota District 5 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngKeith Ellison Incumbent 70.8% 167,079
     Republican Doug Daggett 24% 56,577
     Independence Lee Bauer 5.1% 12,001
     N/A Write-in 0.1% 353
Total Votes 236,010
Source: Minnesota Secretary of State

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "Counties by Congressional Districts," accessed June 8, 2016
  2. ↑ 270towin.com, "Minnesota," accessed June 29, 2017
  3. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  4. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  5. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  6. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  7. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  8. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  9. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  10. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  11. ↑ Minnesota Secretary of State, "Candidate Filings," accessed June 1, 2016
  12. ↑ Politico, "Minnesota House Primaries Results," August 9, 2016


Minnesota's current delegation to the United States Congress
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Amy Klobuchar (D)
Tina Smith (D)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
Tom Emmer (R)
District 7
District 8
Democratic Party (6)
Republican Party (4)


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