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North Carolina's 12th Congressional District election, 2020

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2022
2018
North Carolina's 12th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: December 20, 2019
Primary: March 3, 2020
Primary runoff: June 23, 2020 (canceled)
General: November 3, 2020

Pre-election incumbent:
Alma Adams (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m.
Voting in North Carolina
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
North Carolina's 12th Congressional District
U.S. Senate1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th
North Carolina elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 12th Congressional District of North Carolina, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Alma Adams won election in the general election for U.S. House North Carolina District 12.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
December 20, 2019
March 3, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Democrat Alma Adams, who was first elected in 2014.

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, North Carolina's 12th Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 70.1 100
Republican candidate Republican Party 28.5 0
Difference 41.6 100

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

North Carolina modified its absentee/mail-in voting and early voting procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: The witness signature requirement on completed absentee ballots decreased from two to one. The receipt deadline was extended to 5 p.m. on November 12, 2020, for ballots postmarked on or before Election Day.
  • Early voting: Early voting sites were required to be open for at least 10 hours on the weekends of October 17-18, 2020, and October 24-25, 2020. Counties had to open at least one early voting site per 20,000 registered voters.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

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Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House North Carolina District 12

Incumbent Alma Adams won election in the general election for U.S. House North Carolina District 12 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Alma Adams
Alma Adams (D)
 
100.0
 
341,457

Total votes: 341,457
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House North Carolina District 12

Incumbent Alma Adams defeated Keith Cradle in the Democratic primary for U.S. House North Carolina District 12 on March 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Alma Adams
Alma Adams
 
88.1
 
109,009
Image of Keith Cradle
Keith Cradle Candidate Connection
 
11.9
 
14,713

Total votes: 123,722
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Six of 100 North Carolina counties—6 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Bladen County, North Carolina 9.39% 1.97% 2.07%
Gates County, North Carolina 9.07% 4.11% 5.22%
Granville County, North Carolina 2.49% 4.54% 6.58%
Martin County, North Carolina 0.43% 4.65% 4.64%
Richmond County, North Carolina 9.74% 2.95% 1.50%
Robeson County, North Carolina 4.27% 17.41% 13.78%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won North Carolina with 49.8 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 46.2 percent. In presidential elections between 1792 and 2016, North Carolina voted Democratic 53.5 percent of the time and Republican 25 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, North Carolina voted Republican all five times with the exception of the 2008 presidential election.[1]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in North Carolina. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[2][3]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 40 out of 120 state House districts in North Carolina with an average margin of victory of 38.3 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 44 out of 120 state House districts in North Carolina with an average margin of victory of 36.4 points. Clinton won three districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 80 out of 120 state House districts in North Carolina with an average margin of victory of 22.7 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 76 out of 120 state House districts in North Carolina with an average margin of victory of 27.7 points. Trump won five districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+17, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 17 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made North Carolina's 12th Congressional District the 79th most Democratic nationally.[4]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.92. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.92 points toward that party.[5]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[6] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[7] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Alma Adams Democratic Party $841,868 $669,627 $346,673 As of December 31, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[8]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[9][10][11]

Race ratings: North Carolina's 12th Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

District election history

2018

See also: North Carolina's 12th Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House North Carolina District 12

Incumbent Alma Adams defeated Paul Wright in the general election for U.S. House North Carolina District 12 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Alma Adams
Alma Adams (D)
 
73.1
 
203,974
Image of Paul Wright
Paul Wright (R)
 
26.9
 
75,164

Total votes: 279,138
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House North Carolina District 12

Incumbent Alma Adams defeated Keith Young, Patrick Register, and Gabe Ortiz in the Democratic primary for U.S. House North Carolina District 12 on May 8, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Alma Adams
Alma Adams
 
85.5
 
38,849
Keith Young
 
5.6
 
2,549
Image of Patrick Register
Patrick Register
 
4.6
 
2,074
Image of Gabe Ortiz
Gabe Ortiz
 
4.3
 
1,959

Total votes: 45,431
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House North Carolina District 12

Paul Wright defeated Paul Bonham and Carl Persson in the Republican primary for U.S. House North Carolina District 12 on May 8, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Paul Wright
Paul Wright
 
43.2
 
3,221
Image of Paul Bonham
Paul Bonham
 
31.5
 
2,349
Image of Carl Persson
Carl Persson
 
25.3
 
1,885

Total votes: 7,455
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2016

See also: North Carolina's 12th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Democratic. Incumbent Alma Adams (D) defeated Republican candidate Leon Threatt in the general election. Alma Adams (D) defeated Carla Cunningham, Gardenia Henley, Malcolm Graham, Rick Miller, and Tricia Cotham in the Democratic primary on June 7, 2016. Leon Threatt defeated Ryan Duffie and Paul Wright for the Republican nomination. The general election took place on November 8, 2016.[12]

U.S. House, North Carolina District 12 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngAlma Adams Incumbent 67% 234,115
     Republican Leon Threatt 33% 115,185
Total Votes 349,300
Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections


U.S. House, North Carolina District 12 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngLeon Threatt 41.8% 3,495
Paul Wright 34.6% 2,894
Ryan Duffie 23.6% 1,973
Total Votes 8,362
Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections


U.S. House, North Carolina District 12 Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngAlma Adams Incumbent 42.5% 12,400
Malcolm Graham 28.9% 8,428
Tricia Cotham 21.1% 6,165
Carla Cunningham 4.3% 1,255
Gardenia Henley 1.5% 444
Rodney Moore (withdrawn) 0.8% 245
Rick Miller 0.8% 235
Total Votes 29,172
Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections

2014

See also: North Carolina's 12th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 12th Congressional District of North Carolina held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Alma Adams (D) defeated Vince Coakley (R) in the general election.

U.S. House, North Carolina District 12 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngAlma Adams 75.3% 130,096
     Republican Vince Coakley 24.7% 42,568
Total Votes 172,664
Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. 270towin.com, "North Carolina," accessed June 1, 2017
  2. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  3. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  4. Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  5. FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  6. Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  7. Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  8. Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  9. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  10. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  11. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  12. North Carolina State Board of Elections, "June Primary Candidates," accessed March 27, 2016


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