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Polling in the Virginia gubernatorial election, 2017
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March 30, 2017 |
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November 7, 2017 |
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Virginia held an election for governor on November 7, 2017. The primary election was held on June 13, 2017. Click here to return to the main article on this election.
HIGHLIGHTS
Candidates
The following candidates appeared on the ballot in the November 7, 2017, general election.
Ralph Northam (D)
Lieutenant governor of Virginia since 2014
Ralph Northam is the current Democratic lieutenant governor of Virginia. He was elected to this position on November 5, 2013. Northam won the Democratic primary election on June 13, 2017, defeating Tom Perriello by an eleven percent margin.
Ed Gillespie (R)
Political consultant, former Republican National Committee chairman
Ed Gillespie is a political consultant and a former chairman of the Republican National Committee. He declared his candidacy on November 21, 2016, and won the Republican primary election on June 13, 2017, defeating Corey Stewart and Frank Wagner by a one percent margin. Gillespie ran in 2014 for a seat in the U.S. Senate.
Cliff Hyra (Lib.)
Patent attorney
Cliff Hyra is a patent attorney who was nominated by the Libertarian Party as their candidate for governor on May 6, 2017.
| Click [show] to see candidates who were defeated in the primary elections. | |||
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General election
Media coverage of polls
In the final weeks of the gubernatorial campaign, polls reported a range of potential outcomes for the race. Results ranged from an October 17, 2017, poll showing Gillespie with an 8 percent lead to an October 30, 2017, poll showing Northam with a 17 percent lead. The following articles represent a sample of media coverage of polling in the final weeks of the election.
- Sean Trende, RealClearPolitics (November 6, 2017):
- "Which is a roundabout way of saying: Northam has a lead. Without any clear knowledge about what the electorate will look like on Tuesday, that’s still probably your best bet. But just keep in mind that this is well within the Margie margin, and pollster choices are probably the difference between the expressed result, a narrow Gillespie win, or a surprisingly comfortable Northam win."[1]
- Scott Clement and Mark Blumenthal, The Washington Post (November 6, 2017):
- "As this shows, different methods of identifying likely voters should help explain the divergence among the recent public polls in Virginia. A lot depends on whether polls rely more on previous voting behavior or current enthusiasm.
- Of course, it is impossible to know which method is “right” in advance of any given election. There are valid critiques of asking respondents their vote intention, which is why campaign pollsters prefer to sample from lists of registered voters and draw on records of past voting behavior rather than taking respondents at their word. But past voting behavior can be misleading if a campaign succeeds in getting irregular voters to the polls.
- Regardless, the results from both surveys suggest the race may be tightening in its final weeks. Democrats have been more energized than Republicans throughout much of the year, although now Gillespie’s supporters show signs of greater engagement. The more the electorate resembles voters who cast ballots in every general election, the better Gillespie stands to perform Tuesday."[2]
- Steven Shepard, Politico (October 31, 2017):
- "But what might appear to be a breakdown in pollster reliability may have a much simpler explanation: Not all surveys are conducted the same way, with variations in how questions are asked accounting for the large range of possible results in Virginia.
- For decades, pollsters randomly dialed phone numbers to achieve probability sampling: the principle that every person has an equal chance of being selected to participate in the survey. As state election authorities and political parties became more sophisticated, however, campaign polling consultants began to call only those on the voter rolls — and, later, only those voters who regularly participated in elections.
- In recent years, more public pollsters have embraced this private technique. Now, with a week until Virginians go to the polls — and with pollsters eager to rebuild their standing after mistaken predictions in the presidential election last year — the majority of public surveys in the governor's race are conducted this way. The public polling conducted using lists of registered voters, a method that proponents say is much more consistent, suggests Northam is the slight favorite."[3]
- Editorial Board, The Roanoke Times (October 23, 2017):
- "How can the polls be so different?
- The answer is they are all based on different assumptions about what the electorate who shows up at the polls on Nov. 7 will look like.
- Quinnipiac assumes that Democrats will outnumber Republicans by 10 percent, which naturally leads to a double-digit lead. Monmouth assumes Republicans will outnumber Democrats by 2 percent, which inevitably leads to the slight Gillespie lead."[4]
- Harry Enten, FiveThirtyEight (October 20, 2017):
- "So what the heck is going on in the Virginia governor’s race? Nothing. The split between the Monmouth and Quinnipiac results is big, but it’s not unnatural. In fact, it’s a sign that pollsters are doing their job.
- Polling averages work best when pollsters are working independently. You have different pollsters using different methods and making different estimates of the electorate, and you get a more accurate picture of the race by averaging their results together than by looking at any individual poll. It’s kind of like the old 'wisdom of the crowd' principle."[5]
| Virginia gubernatorial election (most recent pre-election polls) | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Ralph Northam | Ed Gillespie | Cliff Hyra | Undecided/Other | Margin of error | Sample size | |||||||||||||
| Monmouth University (November 2-5, 2017) | 47% | 45% | 3% | 6% | +/-3.7 | 713 | |||||||||||||
| Fox News (November 2-5, 2017) | 48% | 43% | 2% | 8% | +/-2.5 | 1,450 | |||||||||||||
| The Polling Company (November 2-5, 2017) | 45% | 44% | 3% | 7% | +/-3.46 | 800 | |||||||||||||
| Emerson College (November 2-4, 2017) | 49% | 46% | 1% | 4% | +/-3.4 | 810 | |||||||||||||
| Quinnipiac University (October 29 - November 5, 2017) | 51% | 42% | 3% | 4% | +/-3.9 | 1,056 | |||||||||||||
| AVERAGES | 48% | 44% | 2.4% | 5.8% | +/-3.39 | 965.8 | |||||||||||||
| Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. | |||||||||||||||||||
| Virginia gubernatorial election | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Ralph Northam | Ed Gillespie | Cliff Hyra | Undecided/Other | Margin of error | Sample size | |||||||||||||
| Rasmussen Reports (October 31 - November 3, 2017) | 45% | 45% | 2% | 8% | +/-3.5 | 875 | |||||||||||||
| The Polling Company (October 30 - November 2, 2017) | 43% | 46% | 0% | 10% | +/-3.5 | 800 | |||||||||||||
| Suffolk University (October 30 - November 1, 2017) | 47% | 43% | 2% | 7% | +/-4.4 | 500 | |||||||||||||
| Washington Post (October 26-29, 2017) | 49% | 44% | 4% | 4% | +/-4.0 | 921 | |||||||||||||
| Quinnipiac University (October 25-29, 2017) | 53% | 36% | 3% | 7% | +/-4.2 | 916 | |||||||||||||
| The Polling Company (October 23-26, 2017) | 43% | 45% | 0% | 12% | +/-3.46 | 800 | |||||||||||||
| Christopher Newport University (October 20-25, 2017) | 50% | 43% | 3% | 4% | +/-3.8 | 812 | |||||||||||||
| Hampton University (October 18-22, 2017) | 33% | 41% | 0% | 27% | +/-4.2 | 750 | |||||||||||||
| FOX News (October 15-17, 2017) | 49% | 42% | 1% | 8% | +/-3.5 | 697 | |||||||||||||
| Quinnipiac University (October 12-17, 2017) | 53% | 39% | 2% | 5% | +/-3.7 | 1,088 | |||||||||||||
| Monmouth University (October 12-16, 2017) | 47% | 48% | 3% | 3% | +/-4.9 | 408 | |||||||||||||
| Roanoke College (October 8-13, 2017) | 50% | 44% | 2% | 4% | +/-4.0 | 607 | |||||||||||||
| Christopher Newport University (October 9-13, 2017) | 48% | 44% | 3% | 5% | +/-4.2 | 642 | |||||||||||||
| Christopher Newport University (October 2-6, 2017) | 49% | 42% | 3% | 6% | +/-4.3 | 928 | |||||||||||||
| AVERAGES | 47.07% | 43% | 2% | 7.86% | +/-3.98 | 767.43 | |||||||||||||
| Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. | |||||||||||||||||||
| Virginia gubernatorial election | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Ralph Northam | Ed Gillespie | Cliff Hyra | Undecided/Other | Margin of error | Sample size | |||||||||||||
| The Washington Post/Schar School (September 28 - October 2, 2017) | 53% | 40% | 4% | 3% | +/-4.5 | 720 | |||||||||||||
| Monmouth University (September 21-25, 2017) | 49% | 44% | 2% | 4% | +/-4.4 | 499 | |||||||||||||
| Roanoke College (September 16-23, 2017) | 47% | 43% | 5% | 5% | +/-4.0 | 596 | |||||||||||||
| Christopher Newport University (September 12-22, 2017) | 47% | 41% | 4% | 8% | +/-3.7 | 776 | |||||||||||||
| Fox News (September 17-18, 2017) | 42% | 38% | 2% | 18% | +/-4.0 | 507 | |||||||||||||
| Quinnipiac University (September 14-18, 2017) | 51% | 41% | 3% | 5% | +/-4.2 | 850 | |||||||||||||
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy (September 10-15, 2017) | 44% | 43% | 2% | 11% | +/-4.0 | 625 | |||||||||||||
| Suffolk University (September 13-17, 2017) | 42% | 42% | 3% | 12% | +/-4.4 | 500 | |||||||||||||
| University of Mary Washington (September 5-12, 2017) | 38% | 33% | 6% | 24% | +/-3.8 | 1,000 | |||||||||||||
| Roanoke College (August 12-19, 2017) | 43% | 36% | 4% | 17% | +/-4.0 | 599 | |||||||||||||
| Quinnipiac University (August 3-8, 2017) | 44% | 38% | 4% | 14% | +/-3.8 | 1,082 | |||||||||||||
| Virginia Commonwealth University (July 17-25, 2017) | 42% | 37% | 6% | 13% | +/-4.2 | 806 | |||||||||||||
| Monmouth University (July 20-23, 2017) | 44% | 44% | 3% | 9% | +/-4.4 | 502 | |||||||||||||
| Quinnipiac University (June 15-20, 2017) | 47% | 39% | 0% | 13% | +/-3.8 | 1,145 | |||||||||||||
| Harper Polling (June 14-16, 2017) | 46% | 46% | 0% | 8% | +/-4.4 | 500 | |||||||||||||
| AVERAGES | 45.27% | 40.33% | 3.2% | 10.93% | +/-4.11 | 713.8 | |||||||||||||
| Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. | |||||||||||||||||||
| Virginia gubernatorial election (no margin of error reported) | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Ralph Northam | Ed Gillespie | Cliff Hyra | Undecided/Other | Margin of Error | Sample Size | |||||||||||||
| Public Policy Polling (September 21-23, 2017) | 43% | 40% | 4% | 13% | n/a | 849 | |||||||||||||
| IMGE/Pfizer (September 12-18, 2017) | 45% | 41% | 4% | 10% | n/a | 1,000 | |||||||||||||
| AVERAGES | 44% | 40.5% | 4% | 11.5% | +/- | ||||||||||||||
| Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. | |||||||||||||||||||
Polls conducted before the June 13 primary
| Virginia gubernatorial election (pre-primary) | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Ralph Northam | Ed Gillespie | Undecided/Other | Margin of error | Sample size | ||||||||||||||
| The Washington Post (May 9-14, 2017) | 49% | 38% | 13% | +/-3.0 | 1,395 | ||||||||||||||
| Quinnipiac University (April 6-10, 2017) | 44% | 33% | 23% | +/-2.9 | 1,115 | ||||||||||||||
| Gravis Marketing (March 14-19, 2017) | 40% | 42% | 18% | +/-1.6 | 3,097 | ||||||||||||||
| AVERAGES | 44.33% | 37.67% | 18% | +/-2.5 | 1,869 | ||||||||||||||
| Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. | |||||||||||||||||||
Recent news
The link below is to the most recent stories in a Google news search for the terms Virginia Governor election 2017. These results are automatically generated from Google. Ballotpedia does not curate or endorse these articles.
See also
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Virginia government: |
Elections: |
Ballotpedia exclusives: |
- Virginia gubernatorial election, 2017
- Virginia gubernatorial primary election, 2017
- Virginia gubernatorial election campaign advertisements, 2017
- Campaign finance in the Virginia gubernatorial election, 2017
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ RealClearPolitics, "Va. Governor Race Is Within the 'Margie Margin'," November 6, 2017
- ↑ The Washington Post, "How polling methodology affects Ralph Northam’s lead in the Virginia governor’s race," November 6, 2017
- ↑ Politico, "Polling techniques may account for erratic predictions in Virginia," October 31, 2017
- ↑ The Roanoke Times, "Editorial: The state of the governor's race," October 23, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Calm Down About Those Virginia Polls, Folks," October 20, 2017
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