Top-two battleground primaries, 2020

2020 top-two battleground primary elections
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2020 election coverage
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Ballotpedia uses the following criteria to determine battleground top-two primary races:

• Conflict involving two or more candidates from the same party.
• The potential for one party to field two candidates in the general election.
• The potential that an incumbent facing multiple challengers might not advance to the general election.

Races may also be identified as battleground primaries for other reasons:

• Significant levels of satellite spending.
• Influencer endorsements.
• Noteworthy events with the potential to shift the election's outcome.

As of 2020, two states—California and Washington—used a top-two primary system for congressional and state-level elections. California's top-two primaries took place on March 3, and Washingon's top-two primaries took place on August 4.

A top-two primary system allows all candidates to run and all voters to vote in one primary election, with the top two vote-getters, regardless of party affiliation, moving on to the general election. In states that do not use a top-two system, all major parties are usually able to put forward a candidate for the general election if they choose to. In a top-two primary system, major parties can sometimes not be able to field a candidate in the general election if they fail to advance through the primary.

Click here for information on Democratic Party battleground primaries in 2020.
Click here for information on Republican Party battleground primaries in 2020.

Criteria

It is typically difficult to predict how competitive primaries will be until after filing deadlines take place. However, Ballotpedia used a number of factors to give insight into the most interesting 2020 primary elections. Factors that were used to determine the competitiveness of primaries included:

• Whether or not the seat was open (retiring or resigning incumbent)
• The existence of conflict within a political party
• The possibility for two candidates from the same party to advance to the general election
• Notable endorsements of multiple candidates
• Significant fundraising from multiple candidates
• Number of candidates
• Incumbent's years in office (if seeking re-election)
• Whether or not the district's general election was expected to be a battleground

U.S. House top-two primaries

The following map shows each district with a top-two battleground primary for U.S. House in 2020. Ballotpedia identified eight top-two U.S. House battleground primaries.

Top-two U.S. House battleground primaries, 2020
Office	Primary winners	Incumbent	Open seat?	MOV in 2018
California's 10th	Josh Harder Ted Howze	Josh Harder	d	D+4.5
California's 16th	Jim Costa Kevin Cookingham	Jim Costa	d	D+15.0
California's 22nd	Devin Nunes Phil Arballo	Devin Nunes	d	R+5.4
California's 25th	Mike Garcia Christy Smith	Vacant (Previous: Katie Hill)	d	D+8.7
California's 45th	Katie Porter Greg Raths	Katie Porter	d	D+4.1
California's 50th	Ammar Campa-Najjar Darrell Issa	Vacant (Previous: Duncan Hunter)		R+3.4
California's 53rd	Georgette Gomez Sara Jacobs	Susan Davis		D+38.2
Washington's 10th	Marilyn Strickland Beth Doglio	Denny Heck		D+23.0

State executive top-two primaries

The following map shows each state with a top-two state executive battleground primary in 2020. Ballotpedia identified three top-two state executive battleground primaries.

Top-two state executive battleground primaries, 2020
Office	Primary winners	Incumbent	Open seat?	MOV in 2016
Governor of Washington	Jay Inslee Loren Culp	Jay Inslee	d	D+8.8
Lieutenant Governor of Washington	Denny Heck Marko Liias	Cyrus Habib		D+8.8
Attorney General of Washington	Bob Ferguson Matt Larkin	Bob Ferguson	d	D+34.3

Change log

This section lists every change that was made to our battleground list since we launched the page in December 2019.

• July 27, 2020: Added Washington governor.

• March 31, 2020: Added Washington lieutenant governor.

• March 3, 2020: Removed CA-08.

• February 7, 2020: Removed CA-48.

• January 31, 2020: Removed CA-39.

• January 13, 2020: Added WA-10.

• January 3, 2020: Removed CA-21. Added CA-08.

• December 3, 2019: Launched initial battlegrounds list with ten races: CA-10, CA-16, CA-21, CA-22, CA-25, CA-39, CA-45, CA-48, CA-50, CA-53, and WA AG.

Noteworthy past top-two primaries

This section highlights past top-two battleground primaries to illustrate how top-two primaries can produce outcomes that are not typical in other primary systems.

• In the 2012 primary for California's 31st Congressional District, Republicans Gary Miller and Bob Dutton both advanced from the top-two primary, leaving the Democrats with no general election candidate. Miller received 26.7 percent of the vote and Dutton received 24.8 percent of the vote. Four Democratic candidates split the remaining 50 percent of the vote, with the top candidate receiving 22.6 percent.
• In the 2014 primary for California's 25th Congressional District, Republicans Tony Strickland and Stephen Knight both advanced from the top-two primary, leaving the Democrats with no general election candidate. Strickland received 29.6 percent of the vote and Knight received 28.4 percent of the vote. The two Democratic candidates split 32 percent of the vote 22-9, which eliminated them both from the general election.
• In the 2018 primary for California's 8th Congressional District, Republicans Paul Cook and Tim Donnelly both advanced from the top-two primary, leaving the Democrats with no general election candidate. Cook received 40.8 percent of the vote and Donnelly received 22.8 percent of the vote. Three Democratic candidates split the remaining 36 percent of the vote, with the top candidate receiving 21.7 percent.

See also

• Ballotpedia: Our approach to covering primary elections
• Primaries in California, 2020
• Democratic Party battleground primaries, 2020
• Republican Party battleground primaries, 2020