Vice presidential debate at Longwood University (October 4, 2016)
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This article focuses exclusively on the vice presidential debate at Longwood University on October 4, 2016. Click here to access Ballotpedia's full 2015-2016 presidential debate coverage.
- See also: Presidential debates: September 26, October 9, and October 19.
The 2016 vice presidential debate took place on October 4, 2016, at Longwood University in Farmville, Virginia. It was the only vice presidential debate of the 2016 general election season.
Participants
Participants in the vice presidential debate on October 4, 2016, included Tim Kaine (D) and Mike Pence (R). The Commission on Presidential Debates—a nonpartisan 501(c)(3) organization that oversees the general election debates—announced on September 16, 2016, that Bill Weld, the 2016 Libertarian Party nominee for vice president, and Ajamu Baraka, the 2016 Green Party nominee for vice president, were not invited to attend the debate because they did not satisfy the CPD's criteria for inclusion. The CPD required candidates to have a polling average of 15 percent or higher in order to be invited to the debate. At the time, the Libertarian Party ticket was polling at 8.4 percent in the polls used by the CPD. The Green Party ticket was polling at 3.2 percent. Read more about the CPD's inclusion criteria below.[1]
Preparation
To help Kaine prepare for the debate, D.C. attorney Bob Barnett played the role of Pence in mock debate sessions. Barnett also assisted Hillary Clinton with debate prep in the 2016 Democratic primaries by playing the role of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. In past debates, Barnett also played George H.W. Bush and Dick Cheney.[2] On the Republican side, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker helped Pence prepare by playing the role of Kaine.[3] Walker himself sought the 2016 Republican nomination but suspended his campaign in September 2015 and later endorsed Donald Trump. Prior to Trump’s selection of Pence as his running mate, Walker was rumored to have been a potential candidate.
Basic Information
Date: October 4, 2016
Time: 9:00 pm Eastern Time
Location: Farmville, Virginia
Venue: Longwood University
Moderator: Elaine Quijano
Candidates: Tim Kaine (D); Mike Pence (R)
Format
The CPD described the format of the debate in a press release on July 7, 2016: "The debate will be divided into nine time segments of approximately 10 minutes each. The moderator will ask an opening question, after which each candidate will have two minutes to respond. The moderator will use the balance of the time in the segment for a deeper discussion of the topic."[4]
How did the commission decide who got to participate in this debate?
The inclusion criteria for vice presidential candidates was the same as it was for presidential candidates.
According to the CPD website, the organization used criteria that sought to identify candidates "whose public support has made them the leading candidates." The CPD outlined its inclusion criteria on its website:[5]
| Debate qualification criteria[5] |
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The choice of a 15 percent threshold, according to the CPD, was based on studies that determined that such a threshold allowed for other candidates that had enough "public support" to retain the purpose of the debates—that is, "voter education." The CPD, based on their own analysis, said that 15 percent is an achievable percentage for third-party candidates.[5] The five polls were chosen by Dr. Frank Newport, editor-in-chief of Gallup, who considered the methodology, sampling size, and frequency of the polls as well as the reputation of the polling institution. The polls used in 2012 were ABC News/The Washington Post, NBC News/The Wall Street Journal, CBS News/The New York Times, Fox News, and Gallup.[5]
Polls
On August 15, 2016, the CPD released the five polls that it used to determine which candidates would participate in the vice presidential debate.[6] Candidates needed to have an average of at least 15 percent in the following polls to be invited to the debate:
- ABC-Washington Post
- CBS-New York Times
- CNN-Opinion Research Corporation
- Fox News
- NBC-Wall Street Journal
The CPD based its selection of polls on the following criteria, according to its August 15 press release:
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History of VP debates
Vice presidential debates have been a part of the general election cycle since 1976, but it was not until 1984 that they became regular features. They have tended to garner fewer viewers than the presidential debates. One significant exception is the 2008 vice presidential debate between Joe Biden (D) and Sarah Palin (R), which brought in 69.9 million viewers. The first presidential debate that year had 52.4 million viewers.
1976
- Vice presidential candidates: Walter Mondale (D); Bob Dole (R)
- Presidential candidates: Jimmy Carter (D); Gerald Ford (R)
- Viewership of VP debate: 43.2 million
- Viewership of first presidential debate: 69.7 million[8]
1980
No vice presidential debate took place in 1980. George H.W. Bush refused to debate Vice President Walter Mondale. Bush's press secretary at the time said, “Let's face it: the only way we're going to make national headlines is if we screw up.”[9] The presidential debate between Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan that year set a viewership record at 80.6 million viewers. That record remained unbroken until September 26, 2016, when 84 million tuned in to watch the first debate between Hillary Clinton (D) and Donald Trump (R).[10]
1984
- Vice presidential candidates: Geraldine Ferraro (D); George H.W. Bush (R)
- Presidential candidates: Walter Mondale (D); Ronald Reagan (R)
- Viewership of VP debate: 56.7 million
- Viewership of first presidential debate: 65.1 million[11]
1988
- Vice presidential candidates: Lloyd Bensten (D); Dan Quayle (R)
- Presidential candidates: Michael Dukakis (D); George H.W. Bush (R)
- Viewership of VP debate: 46.9 million
- Viewership of first presidential debate: 65.1 million[12]
1992
- Vice presidential candidates: Al Gore (D); Dan Quayle (R); James Stockdale (I)
- Presidential candidates: Bill Clinton (D); George H.W. Bush (R); Ross Perot (I)
- Viewership of VP debate: 51.2 million
- Viewership of first presidential debate: 62.4 million[13]
1996
- Vice presidential candidates: Al Gore (D); Jack Kemp (R)
- Presidential candidates: Bill Clinton (D); Bob Dole (R)
- Viewership of VP debate: 26.6 million
- Viewership of first presidential debate: 46.1 million[14]
2000
- Vice presidential candidates: Joe Lieberman (D); Dick Cheney (R)
- Presidential candidates: Al Gore (D); George W. Bush (R)
- Viewership of VP debate: 28.5 million
- Viewership of first presidential debate: 46.6 million[15]
2004
- Vice presidential candidates: John Edwards (D); Dick Cheney (R)
- Presidential candidates: John Kerry (D); George W. Bush (R)
- Viewership of VP debate: 43.5 million
- Viewership of first presidential debate: 62.4 million[16]
2008
- Vice presidential candidates: Joe Biden (D); Sarah Palin (R)
- Presidential candidates: Barack Obama (D); John McCain (R)
- Viewership of VP debate: 69.9 million
- Viewership of first presidential debate: 52.4 million[17]
2012
- Vice presidential candidates: Joe Biden (D); Paul Ryan (R)
- Presidential candidates: Barack Obama (D); Mitt Romney (R)
- Viewership of VP debate: 51.4 million
- Viewership of first presidential debate: 67.2 million[18]
Statistics
This article analyzes the central themes of the vice presidential debate held on October 4, 2016, at Longwood University in Farmville, Virginia. The transcript prepared by The Washington Post was used to measure candidate participation and debate themes.[19] Footage from the debate was consulted where there were ambiguities in the text.
For comparison, see the analysis of the first presidential debate held on September 26, 2016, at Hofstra University.
Participants
 Tim Kaine (D) |
 Mike Pence (R) | |||
Segments
This debate featured 19 unique discussion segments covering the economy, criminal justice, national security, and the presidential candidates' characters. There were no opening or closing statements. These discussion segments were measured by any shift in the theme of a discussion prompted by the moderator, Elaine Quijano.
- Kaine's and Pence's preparation to be president
- Clinton's private email server and trustworthiness
- Trump's temperament
- National debt
- Trump's tax returns
- Social Security
- Law enforcement
- Criminal justice and racial bias
- Immigration reform and deportation
- ISIS and terrorism
- Domestic terrrorism
- Defense intelligence and cybersecurity
- Humanitarian crisis in Syria
- Establishing safe zones in Syria
- Russian aggression
- Putin and diplomatic relations
- North Korea and nuclear proliferation
- Personal faith, capital punishment, and abortion
- Unifying the country
Recurring themes
Although Russia was the subject of two discussion segments, the country and its leader, Vladimir Putin, were invoked in five other discussion segments. In total, there were eight countries mentioned more than five times: China, Iran, Iraq, Mexico, North Korea, Russia, Syria, and Ukraine. The territory of Crimea was also mentioned seven times.
Several world leaders and public figures were mentioned by name throughout the debate. President Barack Obama and Russian President Vladimir Putin were both referenced more than 20 times.
The vice presidential candidates also frequently diverged from the theme of the discussion segment to attack their opponents. For example, Trump's tax returns were mentioned in 8 of the 19 discussion segments. Clinton's private email server was brought up in four discussion segments.
Candidate analysis
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Insiders Poll
Insiders give Pence the edge in VP debate
October 4, 2016 (Updated on October 5, 2016)
By James A. Barnes
The vice presidential debate between Virginia Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine and Indiana Republican Gov. Mike Pence at Longwood University in Farmville, Virginia wasn’t the most elevating candidate face-off on record. It probably reminded many of those watching of a schoolyard argument where two pre-teens tossed taunts at each other, or these days, perhaps emoji-laced texts.
But political operatives following along gave Pence the blue ribbon for his performance that left some Republicans wishing he were at the top of the party’s ticket instead of Donald Trump.
Ballotpedia surveyed more than 100 Democratic and Republican strategists, pollsters, media consultants, activists, lobbyists, and allied interest group operatives, after the conclusion of the October 4 face-off and found that an overwhelming majority of Republican Insiders and almost a quarter of the Democrats felt that the Indiana governor was the debate's “biggest winner.”
Among the 59 Republican Insiders who responded to the survey, 90 percent said that Pence had prevailed. The 54 Democratic Insiders who responded were more divided: Nearly half said that Kaine had bested Pence, but a third called the debate a draw and nearly one-fourth said that Pence had done a better job than Kaine, whose biggest drawback in the encounter may have been the number of times he interrupted Pence in his zeal to press his case against Trump.
Republicans
Democrats
“Pence was cool, calm and collected,” said one GOP Insider. “Kaine interrupted so often he looked rude and snarky.” Another declared, “Kaine was making a first impression with tens of millions of Americans tonight and his interrupting demeanor was irritating and unlikable.” And a third echoed that Kaine was “nervous, irritating [and] rude. Pence, hobbled by indefensible running mate, managed well.”
Even some Democratic Insiders gave Pence points for maintaining his poise under Kaine’s withering attacks, something Trump was unable to do in his first debate with Hillary Clinton when she baited the GOP nominee at times into looking his composure.
“I actually felt sorry for Pence at some level because there just is no defense for so many of the things Trump has said,” acknowledged on Democratic Insider. “He stayed cool though, and stayed on his message as best he could.” Another echoed, “His cool demeanor masked his discomfort with Trump.” And a third Democratic Insider said, “Kaine had better material, but he was rude.” This survey was conducted anonymously to encourage candor from the Insiders.
But most Democrats felt that Kaine accomplished the central mission of any vice presidential candidate—take it to the top of the other party’s ticket. “He kept the focus on Donald Trump which is his job,” explained one Democratic Insider.
And Democrats were less likely to see Kaine’s interruption of Pence as bad manners than putting his Republican opponent in the awkward position of having to choose between endorsing some of Trump’s more controversial statements or repudiating them. “Gov. Pence never defended Trump in all his horrible statements,” noted one Democratic Insider. Kaine “laid out a strong anti-Trump narrative that Pence would not defend,” echoed another. “Kaine was a strong prosecutor,” said a third. “Pence was a weak witness for the defense.”
Republicans saw the Virginia Senator’s tactics as offensive, not courtly. “Kaine lost points for sheer rudeness,” said one GOP Insider. “Kaine’s incessant interruptions made him a big loser,” echoed another.
A third of the Democratic Insiders saw the candidate face-off as a draw, compared to fewer less than one-in-10 Republicans. And Democrats scored the debate the same way: Pence did better on form, Kaine on fundamentals. “Pence was much smoother, but the problem was he seemed to not know what Trump said and didn’t defend him,” said one Democratic Insider. “Kaine kept interrupting, which was annoying, but he was effective in going on the attack against Trump.” Another Democrat concurred: “Pence wins on style points but substance goes to Kaine. Right now those watching will remember Kaine interrupting and Pence shaking his head ruefully, but between now and Sunday when the actual candidate debate resumes its control of the news cycle, the fact checkers will give it to Kaine.” And a third said, “Pence was more statesmanlike; Kaine's constant interrupting did him and his campaign a huge disservice. But Pence was unable or unwilling to defend his running mate’s comments—Kaine did a much better job on that front.”
Insiders in both parties saw Pence’s performance as bolstering his own image and political prospects. “Kaine helped Hillary; Pence helped himself,” opined one Democratic Insider. “Pence '20 should see a bump in the polls,” predicted a Republican Insider.”
Some Republicans weren’t waiting four years to muse about Pence and the top of their ticket. “His only fault was appearing more presidential than anyone else running, including Trump,” said one GOP Insider. Another described Pence as “dignified’ and “thoughtful, adding, “Wish he was the candidate.”
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics.
Commentary
The columns below were authored by guest columnists and members of Ballotpedia's senior writing staff. The opinions and views belong to the authors.
Pence’s debate performance boosts his image
October 5, 2016
By Karlyn Bowman
Karlyn Bowman, a widely respected analyst of public opinion, is a senior fellow and research coordinator at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank in Washington, D.C.
ABC News reported that after Virginia Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine left mass on Sunday morning, he told reporters that he just needed to “be myself” in the October 4 vice presidential debate. “I’m calm,” said Hillary Clinton’s number two. Well, he may have been calm on Sunday, but he wasn’t last night and Republican vice presidential nominee Mike Pence was.
Pence was relaxed and in control throughout the ninety minute exchange at Longwood University in Farmville, Virginia. He didn’t defend the GOP standard bearer, Donald Trump, but Pence did what he needed to do carefully by turning the points back to Clinton’s actions with great skill.
Tim Kaine came off as the smartest kid in the class, jumping in and out to show the audience how prepared he was and how much he knew. He was loaded for bear, determined to press his points in a way that seemed overly aggressive for the mild-mannered Pence. It didn’t work. Pence won.
Americans want a certain comfort level with their candidates. They want to feel they could sit down and talk with them over a cup of coffee or a beer. My guess is that in other situations, people would be comfortable with both of these individuals who have exemplary records of service to their communities and to the nation. But last night, Kaine didn’t appear to “be myself.” Did he score some points? Of course, but Pence had the calmer demeanor and cooler temperament, something that couldn’t be said of his running mate in the first debate.
Would Pence best Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, John Kasich, and others in a debate in Iowa in 2020 if this election doesn’t go his way? If last night's performance was an indication, and if the Hoosier Republican he decides to reach for the GOP presidential nomination four years from now, he will be a formidable contender.
Will Pence’s debate performance change anything?
October 5, 2016
By James A. Barnes
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics.
If you look at the history of presidential debates, you can’t expect that Indiana Republican Gov. Mike Pence's solid performance over Democrat Tim Kaine in the vice presidential debate at Longwood University on October 4 is going to shake up the main contest between his running mate, Donald Trump, and Hillary Clinton, the Democratic presidential nominee. Success on the understudies’ debate stage, or lack thereof, hasn’t moved the needle in the polls in past presidential elections.
In 1988, GOP vice presidential nominee Dan Quayle was on the receiving end of one of the best debate put-downs ever—Lloyd Bentsen’s “you’re-no-Jack-Kennedy” line. But the subsequent polls that election year didn’t change direction and the GOP ticket of George H.W. Bush and Quayle went on to a resounding victory. Likewise, Bob Dole's VP debate performance in 1976 is generally seen as one of the worst, capped by the wounded World War II veteran’s caustic jab that “Democrat wars” in the 20th century had accounted for the deaths of 1.6 million American military personnel. But in spite of Dole’s sarcasm and cutting manner, his running mate, incumbent GOP President Gerald R. Ford, continued to gain ground on Democratic challenger Jimmy Carter in the polls, coming within a whisker of achieving one of the greatest comebacks in presidential campaign history.
As one Democratic Insider aptly noted in a Ballotpedia survey of political operatives from both parties, a vice presidential debate can have the half-life of ripe tomato. “Pence won,” acknowledged the Democratic Insider, “but in 48 hours, no one will even remember it happened.” That may be an overstatement, but the thrust of the point is correct.
Since 2000, every Democratic vice presidential nominee has been primed not to pull a Joe Lieberman, who was seen as too easy-going in his vice presidential debate with Republican Dick Cheney that year. Joe Biden didn’t pile on Sarah Palin in 2008, sensitive perhaps to the miscues that men can make in debating women, but by 2012 he was aggressive and dismissive at times when he squared off against Paul Ryan in that year’s vice presidential debate.
Kaine was fulfilling the traditional role of the VP who is expected to take it to the other party's standard bearer. But in his zeal for that task he interrupted Pence too much and at times came across as rude and too tightly wound. Kaine’s attacks were standard fare for the give-and-take of political debates, but his delivery was at times was off-putting, obscuring some of the points he was trying to make.
I’m not sure how Pence was supposed to respond to Kaine’s challenge to defend some of Trump’s more controversial campaign statements. If he repudiated anything Trump had said, that would be the story coming out of the debate. "Even Trump's own running mate says..." If Pence actually defended those Trump statements, he'd open himself and his party up to the criticism, "See, all Republicans are alike and they agree with Trump..." Ignoring Kaine’s challenges or trying to dismiss them, as he attempted a couple of times, was probably the best course for Pence. You’d loose points for that kind of tactic in a collegiate debate, but it seems like the smartest move Pence could make. Voters expect politicians to dodge and weave. And Trump's statements are going to live on in commercials and commentary no matter what Pence said on Tuesday night.
Many observers described Pence as poised and smooth in deflecting Kaine’s attacks. But he hasn’t always been so graceful under hot lights. Indeed, just last year, Pence acknowledged his uneven performance in an interview with ABC News Sunday morning talk show host George Stephanopoulos over gay rights in Indiana. Perhaps he learned from that experience. It’ll be Trump’s task on Sunday night when he squares off again against Clinton to show that he learned something from his underwhelming performance in his first debate.
And the biggest winners from Pence’s debate showing—how about Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and his Republican colleagues? If Pence’s fellow Hoosier Republicans show some extra hometown pride after the vice presidential debate and turn out in bigger numbers in Indiana for the Republican ticket, that could help boost GOP Rep. Todd Young who is locked in a tight battle with Democrat Evan Bayh over the Senate seat that Bayh once held. One seat could be the difference in deciding which party controls the Senate after November 8. Wouldn’t it be ironic—with some incumbent Republican Senators distancing themselves from their party’s presidential nominee—if Trump’s running mate helped save the Senate for the GOP?
See also
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Commission on Presidential Debates
- Presidential debate prep teams, 2016
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential election, 2016/Polls
- Mike Pence vice presidential campaign, 2016
- Mike Pence
- Tim Kaine vice presidential campaign, 2016
- Tim Kaine
Footnotes
- ↑ Politico, "Johnson and Stein fail to make cut for first presidential debate," September 16, 2016
- ↑ Politico, "Exclusive: Robert Barnett to play Mike Pence in Tim Kaine debate prep," September 17, 2016
- ↑ Politico, "Exclusive: Here’s who’s playing Tim Kaine in GOP debate prep," September 17, 2016
- ↑ Commission on Presidential Debates, "Commission on Presidential Debates Announces Format for 2016 General Election Debates," July 7, 2016
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 Commission on Presidential Debates, "An Overview," accessed August 26, 2015
- ↑ Commission on Presidential Debates, "Commission on Presidential Debates Announces Polls to be used in 2016 Candidate Selection Criteria," August 15, 2016
- ↑ Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
- ↑ Commission on Presidential Debates, "1976 Debates," accessed September 29, 2016
- ↑ Time, "Top 10 Veep Debate Moments," accessed September 29, 2016
- ↑ The New York Times, "At 84 Million Viewers, Debate Was the Most-Watched Ever," September 27, 2016
- ↑ Commission on Presidential Debates, "1984 Debates," accessed September 29, 2016
- ↑ Commission on Presidential Debates, "1988 Debates," accessed September 29, 2016
- ↑ Commission on Presidential Debates, "1992 Debates," accessed September 29, 2016
- ↑ Commission on Presidential Debates, "1996 Debates," accessed September 29, 2016
- ↑ Commission on Presidential Debates, "2000 Debates," accessed September 29, 2016
- ↑ Commission on Presidential Debates, "2004 Debates," accessed September 29, 2016
- ↑ Commission on Presidential Debates, "2008 Debates," accessed September 29, 2016
- ↑ Commission on Presidential Debates, "2012 Debates," accessed September 29, 2016
- ↑ The Washington Post, "The Mike Pence vs. Tim Kaine vice-presidential debate transcript, annotated," October 5, 2016
