What to look for in the Nevada Democratic Caucuses
Presidential election in Nevada, 2016
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 Date: November 8, 2016 |
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February 19, 2016
Originally the Silver State’s Democratic presidential caucuses were not expected to be a battleground between former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. But in the wake of Sanders’ landslide victory in the New Hampshire primary, the caucuses have become a test of the liberal grassroots enthusiasm for his candidacy versus Clinton’s broad establishment support within the party.
Nevada is relative newcomer to the opening phase of presidential nominating politics. Democratic Senate leader Harry Reid actively promoted his state when the Democratic National Committee sought to add contests with more diverse electorates to the early round of the primaries and caucuses prior to the 2008 race.
The Nevada procedure is very similar to that in the Iowa Caucuses. In order to earn delegates who go on to county conventions from a precinct caucus, a candidate needs to reach a threshold of support—usually 15 percent at the precinct-level caucus. The Democratic caucuses technically begin at 11:30 AM PST (2:30 PM EST), but the initial preference grouping for presidential candidates begins at noon (3:00 PM EST). If the race is as close as expected, it’s very unlikely that the television networks will make an early projection of a winner.
Only registered Democrats are allowed to participate in the Democratic caucuses. Same-day registration will be available and attendees from other parties can affiliate with the Democratic Party at the caucus. Also, 17-year-olds who will turn 18 before the November general election may participate in the caucuses.
Nevada party registration as of January 31, 2016:
| Nevada Party Registration | |
|---|---|
| Party | Active voters |
| Democratic | 471,342 |
| Republican | 423,308 |
| Other | 309,255 |
| Total | 1,203,905 |
Turnout will be an important factor in these caucuses. A large turnout, as was the case in 2008, would probably benefit Sanders and be another sign that his candidacy is attracting Democrats to the campaign that typically don’t participate in presidential nominating politics.
Previous Nevada Democratic Presidential Caucus Turnout:
| 2008 Democratic turnout | |
|---|---|
| Year | Estimated vote |
| 2008 | 116,000 |
More than two-thirds of the caucus vote will come out of Clark County, the state’s largest population center anchored by Las Vegas. Clinton carried Clark over Barack Obama in the 2008 caucuses, 54-to-44 percent. Obama won Washoe County, which includes Reno, 50-to-41 percent. Obama carried the rest of the state more narrowly, 47-to-43 percent. While Clinton actually won more state delegate equivalents in the caucus than Obama did in 2008, his campaign ended up earning one more national convention delegate from the process.
The Nevada caucuses are the first Democratic contest with a more diverse electorate and in 2008, Clinton carried Hispanic caucus goers by more than a two-to-one margin, according to the television networks’ Nevada entrance poll, a survey of a representative sample of Democrats as they entered their caucus sites. She also won lower-income Democratic caucus-goers. In order for Sanders to defeat Clinton in Nevada, he’d probably need to cut significantly into Clinton’s margins among these groups. At the same time, he’d need to replicate Obama’s 2008 strength in the Nevada counties outside of Clark.
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics. He is a member of the CNN Decision Desk and will be helping to project the Democratic and Republican winners throughout the election cycle.
See also
- Presidential election in Nevada, 2016
- Presidential Nominating Index: Clinton rules, but Sanders also rising
- Presidential Nominating Index: GOP elites tilt to Trump
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Presidential election, 2016/Polls
- 2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards
- Presidential election, 2016/Straw polls
